BG Group Share Discussion Threads

[philanderer] 13/2/2012 22:21

Evening Melf possibly this ..

".. BG Group eased 10.5p at 1,468p, hit by a downgrade to hold from buy at Liberum Capital."

[philo124] 13/2/2012 22:07

Broker 1850p re-iteration.

[melf] 13/2/2012 14:11

Brent at $118. Any thoughts as to why this hasn't broken through the 1500p barrier?

[apad] 10/2/2012 16:48

That is the French Total oil company.
apad

[apad] 10/2/2012 16:47

Total exploration spend $23bn.
apad

[apad] 10/2/2012 16:11

Essence of Lex:

Projected growth predicated on vast development projects in Brazil and Australia that will test the group's financial capacity - can BG go it alone?

Can BG finance its 27% share of Brazil?

Operational cash flow of $10bn in 2011 plus $5.6bn raised on bond markets is enough to fund a capex program of $11bn a year.

BG's ability to extract profit from Brazil depends on Petrobas, which is huge but overstretched.

Shell (revenue $470bn, cf BG $21bn) intends to spend $30bn in 2012. I.e 20 times the revenue cf 3 times the capex illustrates the degree of BG ambitions.

Big bets on gas are a mixd blessing. BG is repositioning itself as a middleman between supply heavy US and demand heavy Asia.

It is now at that difficult age where keeping up momentum can only get harder.

[the bear man] 10/2/2012 13:14

interesting how the company doesnt highlight the rising debt. hardly a bargain at 4x sales, and with $22b spend plan over the next 2 years, when will they start to reduce the debt levels? imo all the hype is in the share price

[philanderer] 10/2/2012 11:38

Questor share tip: LNG is helping power BG Group to a bright future

The rise and rise of BG Group continues, with 2012 shaping up to be another record year.

10 Feb 2012
BG Group
£14.91½ +45½p

Questor says BUY

[miata] 10/2/2012 10:10

BG Group Questor says BUY

[flyfisher] 09/2/2012 19:48

some broker comments are on todays ft markets live.

[apad] 09/2/2012 18:38

BG in Lex column. Anyone cut 'n paste?
apad

[apad] 09/2/2012 17:06

Except the Chinese of course.
apad

[apad] 09/2/2012 17:06

The Tintin was right about the debt and the cashflow seems to indicate that they can afford it. Current yield about 1%. Does anyone know what the normalized EPS is in pence. Can't get to grips with the raw balance sheet, but it is nice that Mr. M hasn't taken the hump.
Can't see what there is to drive the share price above the April high of about 1550.
Don't think much of the strategy guff.
Be interesting to see what the FT has to say when it has had chance to digest the figures.
Boring - might buy some more at 1200.
Anyone spotted why I am wrong?
Hope I am wrong!
apad

[stavros28] 09/2/2012 14:46

We have a result BG on the move!!!!

Stavros

[miata] 09/2/2012 11:37

Berenberg

Every year, it gets increasingly difficult for BG Group to pull rabbits out of the hat. However, to its credit, it has managed a few more this year, even if there are some offsetting (but not entirely unexpected) factors.

The positives:
1) Guiding to LNG operating profit in 2012 of $2.6bn-2.8bn. Our existing forecast ($2.85bn) is well ahead of current consensus ($2.5bn). Moreover, the vast majority of BG's LNG portfolio is hedged in 2012. These roll off next year, implying a further uptick in profits in 2013.
2) Well on track to exceed its 20m tpa LNG supply by 2015. With the potential for a third train in Australia (Queensland Curtis), its own plans to export LNG from the US and the possibility of LNG exports from Tanzania, BG is well on track to exceed its 30m tpa target in 2020.
3) The long-term production target of 1.4m b/d in 2020 from existing projects is unchanged. This represents 7% pa growth, but BG hopes to increase this to 8% pa growth via future exploration success.
4) There is a modest upgrade to BG's production target in Brazil (from 550k b/d to 600k b/d). Development plans seem to be proceeding as scheduled.
5) BG's Queensland two-train LNG project remains on track for start-up in late 2014, despite the effects of heavy flooding in the region a year ago. 6) Is looking to sell $5bn of assets over the next two years. This should allay concerns on BG's gearing, given its heavy capex programme. Likely disposals are the remnants of BG's power business and gas distribution assets (e.g. Gujara Gas).

The negatives:
1) BG is not giving production guidance for 2012 (wisely!). Instead, it gives a planned start-year (650k b/d) and end-year (750k b/d) rate. The average implies 9% growth, which is line with consensus. But most of BG's bigger projects in 2012 are back-end loaded, implying that growth forecasts
will likely be tweaked lower.
2) Given low US natural gas prices, there is an expected downgrade to BG's
US shale gas targets – 2015 is cut from 190k b/d to 80k b/d. This represents around 10% of BG's 2015 production target. While there will likely be some offsetting effects, it implies that medium-term growth has been lowered somewhat.
3) Capex for 2012-13 is seen at $22bn. The previous plan for 2012 was $11bn, implying a flat spend in 2013. Clearly, US shale gas spending plans have been reduced. But, for the first time, BG is highlighting an increasing spend on finance leases, largely relating to LNG shipping. These will total $2.3bn over this period.

[miata] 09/2/2012 11:35

BarCap

As we had hoped BG's strategy update has focused on the upside offered by its LNG business. The 30% uplift to profit guidance to $2.6-2.8bn EBIT from LNG in 2012 is a nice to have. We see more significant upside offered as the group's hedges unwind in 2013 and expect the company to focus on the "excellent profit momentum" offered by this business in years to come. Company consensus expectations for mid decade LNG EBIT are currently $3.8bn; we see upside to as much as $5bn (Henry hub not all doom and gloom). This is before we price in any incremental profits from the Cheniere contract, which allows BG to exploit its LNG edge without a concomitant lift in capex.

On that note its was reassuring that the group has not lifted its spending guidance for 2012-13 despite tougher forex assumptions for Australia. We would also see the $5bn of planned non-core divestments over the next 1-2 years as helpful as spending peaks. In this afternoon's strategy update we also expect the group to focus on value release from the core. Production estimates for Brazil for end-decade have been lifted 9% to >600k b/d net. Within our 1700p price target we currently ascribe 683p/share to Brazil. This is based on 5.3bn boe of resources being delivered before licence expiry. If BG can persuade us that 6bn boe of resources can be extracted then this would imply 40p/share uplift to net asset value.

[miata] 09/2/2012 11:00

Total Reserves includes Proved Reserves, Probable Reserves, Discovered Resources and Risked Exploration. SEC definitions. Proved and Probable represent about 42%.

[bigbertie] 09/2/2012 10:24

Results today. Financial numbers good and outlook for production and resources both great over the long term. Dividend not great but you would not expect it. A long term hold IMHO.
However I'm a bit vague about their resources. They mention 17bn "reserves & resources" - is this the same as 2P reserves (ie proven & probable)??
Good luck all holders.

[miata] 09/2/2012 10:03

09 Feb BG Group PLC BG. Deutsche Bank Buy 1,475.25 1,850.00 1,850.00 Reiterates

[philo124] 09/2/2012 09:22

£17.50 target.

[miata] 09/2/2012 09:04

BG reported fourth-quarter earnings of $1.48 billion well above the consensus expectation of of $1.11 billion.

Total operating profit up 19% to $8.2 billion
• Strong cash flow from operations, up 17% to $9.8 billion
• Full year dividend increased by 10% to 23.76 cents per share (14.82 pence per share)
• Significant progress on major projects in Australia and Brazil
• Signed 20-year US LNG export agreement for 5.5 mtpa, commencing 2015
• Three-year proved reserve replacement ratio exceeding 200%
• $5.6 billion bonds issued in dollar, sterling and euro currencies

Final dividend of 8.19 pence per share, bringing the full year dividend to 14.82 pence per share. The final dividend will be paid to shareholders on 25 May 2012.

[brain smiley] 09/2/2012 09:03

phone the police.

[philanderer] 09/2/2012 08:45

Morning all.

Good looking numbers. Luck to holders.

[elmfield] 09/2/2012 08:17

lovely, holding.