Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[traderabc] 08/10/2010 10:15

No Way Out


By Doug Casey, Casey Research


I really dislike sounding inflammatory. Saying that things are going to go terribly wrong runs a risk of being classed with those who think the world will end in December 2012 because of something Nostradamus or the Bible says, or because that's what the Mayan calendar predicts.


This is different. In the real world, cause has effect. Nobody has a crystal ball, but a good economist (there are some, though very few, in existence) can definitely pinpoint causes and estimate not only what their immediate and direct effects are likely to be (that's not hard; a smart kid can usually do that) but the indirect and delayed effects.


In the first half of this year, people were looking at the U.S. economy and seeing that some things were better. Auto sales were up – because of the wasteful Cash for Clunkers program. Home sales were up – because of the $8,000 credit and distressed pricing. Employment was up – partly because of Census hiring, and partly because hundreds of billions have been thrown at the economy. The recovery impresses me as a charade.


Let's get beyond what the popular media parrots are telling us and attempt to derive some reasonable assumptions about how things really are and where they're headed.

[traderabc] 07/10/2010 23:18

lol!


Flashback 2006: Da Keiser Code: "We hit peak oil and we're not going to make it."

[lbo] 06/10/2010 15:18

Airlines have taken off after no-frills airline easyJet forecast profits this year will be more than £150m, better than the top of its previous forecast range, after lower volcano ash costs and better demand for European short-haul flights. British Airways, which yesterday said demand was improving enough to justify retrieving two aircrafts from storage in the desert is up in sympathy with easyJet and is the best performing blue-chip today.

[traderabc] 06/10/2010 10:51

Paul Farrell Explains Why The Fed-Wall Street Complex Will Self Destruct By 2012



Tyler Durden
Zero Hedge
Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Some rather scary predictions out of Paul Farrell today: "It's inevitable: Wall Street banks control the Federal Reserve system, it's their personal piggy bank. They've already done so much damage, yet have more control than ever.Warning: That's a set-up. They will eventually destroy capitalism, democracy, and the dollar's global reserve-currency status. They will self-destruct before 2035 ... maybe as early as 2012 ... most likely by 2020. Last week we cheered the Tea Party for starting the countdown to the Second American Revolution. Our timeline is crucial to understanding the historic implications of Taleb's prediction that the Fed is dying, that it's only a matter of time before a revolution triggers class warfare forcing America to dump capitalism, eliminate our corrupt system of lobbying, come up with a new workable form of government, and create a new economy without a banking system ruled by Wall Street." And just like in the Hangover, where the guy is funny because he's fat, Farrell is scary cause he is spot on correct.

[traderabc] 06/10/2010 10:48

This Is Starting To Get Very Real: Agricultural Commodity Prices Have Exploded And Now The Price Of Food Is Beginning To Rise Substantially In The United States And All Over The World

[traderabc] 06/10/2010 10:44

Icelanders Hurl Eggs at Parliament in Mass Protests


Omar R. Valdimarsson
Bloomberg
Oct 5, 2010

Iceland's police sealed off the country's parliament with a five-foot steel fence to protect lawmakers as protestors gathered in their thousands, beating makeshift drums and hurling red paint at the legislature.

More than 5,000 people protested outside the Reykjavik- based Althingi last night, according to a police estimate, as Prime Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir presented her key policy objectives to lawmakers. Protestors lit a bonfire and threw firecrackers at police while others tried to break through the steel fence protecting the parliament.

Sigurdardottir will "immediately tomorrow call the leaders of all the political parties to a meeting to discuss how to react" to the protests, she told state television last night. "We need to discuss the position we're facing and we have a number of ideas regarding the debt problem of households, which I want the opposition and interest groups to come to the table to discuss."

The protests were designed to disrupt the Prime Minister's first speech to lawmakers since parliament convened for the autumn session this month. Her government, in office since January 2009, is still struggling to resurrect the economy after its banking meltdown a year earlier plunged the island into a crisis that sent the krona down as much as 80 percent against the euro offshore. The island has since relied on a $4.6 billion International Monetary Fund-led loan to stay afloat.

[traderabc] 06/10/2010 10:40

Keiser Report No. 83: Markets! Finance! Warren Buffett's Studded Dog Collar!

[thehardestbutton] 05/10/2010 05:26

More for you Traderabc

I see that the British East India Company played a significant role in shaping the country, do you think that China is the one with the influence now?
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I note that the PAP have been in power forever, presumably they have most representation in cabinet, do you know from which ethnicity they come from, Chinese, Malays, Indians?
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Singaporeans descended from China mostly. The PAP ideology is based on centre politics built around pragmatic, mulitcultural Communitarianism. Three things which don't seem to hold true in the West these days.

The demographics are interesting, the future apparently belongs to the Malay people, unless Singapore keeps up the flow of immigrants, a concept that some Daily mail readers may struggle with ;-)
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I think based on the ethos of the PAP immigration is being controlled quite well. Though there are enclaves of nationality (Little India, Chinatown, Arab Street) these are not ghettos and indeed the state encourages integration through tax reliefs and assistance. An interesting concept again missing from many Western societies.


It sounds like a fascinating place, a rich and diverse multi cultural/lingual melting pot, that does capitalism better those who brought it there.
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Indeed - some of the rules under 'Communitarianism' would be seen as draconian or even totalitarian in the West but actually make a lot of practical sense. But then it has to be said my divine right to drop litter, drink in the streets, vandalise property, spray graffiti etc is not for the benefit of the wider community so why would I be allowed these 'freedoms'. Is it any better than saying I have the right to attack, mug or steal. It's an interesting arguement on freedoms I guess.


I bet the ex pat community has some colorful characters, have you met any?
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I have been to a few bars and yes the ex-pats are a wide and varied bunch. Havent had the chance to meet with any 'old colonials' yet but Im sure it wont be long.

Given your previous posts on this and other threads be interested on your take on 'communitarianism' and how it might impact your view on freedoms and human rights.

[traderabc] 04/10/2010 23:03

Jim Rogers - Silver is 85 % under its all time high - October 2010

Jim Rogers - Silver is 85 % under it´s all time high - October 2010
Jim Rogers :"I just got to say that if I were to go to about precious metals, I would rather look at silver than gold. I own gold and I own silver, but silver is still 60% below its all time high. Gold is making all time highs. So it is usually better to buy low and sell high. I am not selling my gold. Gold will go over $2000 an ounce certainly in the next 5 to 10 years. But silver - on a percentage basis - will probably go up even more during that period of time. "

[traderabc] 03/10/2010 15:05

Rampant Inflation In 2011? The Monetary Base Is Exploding, Commodity Prices Are Skyrocketing And The Fed Wants To Print Lots More Money



The Economic Collapse
Oct 2, 2010

Are you ready for rampant inflation? Well, unfortunately it looks like it might be headed our way. The U.S. monetary base has absolutely exploded over the last couple of years, and all that money is starting to filter through into the hands of consumers. Commodity prices are absolutely skyrocketing, and it is inevitable that those price increases will show up in our stores at some point soon. The U.S. dollar has already been slipping substantially, and now there is every indication that the Fed is hungry to start printing even more money. All of these things are going to cause a rise in inflation.

[traderabc] 03/10/2010 15:03

Webster Tarpley – World Crisis Radio 10.02.2010 part-1

[traderabc] 03/10/2010 14:59

Max Keiser Truth About Markets USA 10.02.2010 part-1

[traderabc] 03/10/2010 10:18

Expect gold to cross $2000/ounce in next 5-10 yrs: Jim Rogers

[traderabc] 03/10/2010 10:17

Press TV-On the Edge with Max Keiser-Norway, Agriculture & Precious metals

[traderabc] 03/10/2010 10:16

Keiser Report: Markets! Finance! Scandal! And B J Lawson!

[traderabc] 03/10/2010 10:14

THB, thanks for the input. Those figures for the poor are very low. 100k out of 5 million is a tiny issue, I presume $360 a month isn't a lot of money there, just enough for food and slum rent?

I've been looking at this,



I see that the British East India Company played a significant role in shaping the country, do you think that China is the one with the influence now?

I note that the PAP have been in power forever, presumably they have most representation in cabinet, do you know from which ethnicity they come from, Chinese, Malays, Indians?

The demographics are interesting, the future apparently belongs to the Malay people, unless Singapore keeps up the flow of immigrants, a concept that some Daily mail readers may struggle with ;-)

It sounds like a fascinating place, a rich and diverse multi cultural/lingual melting pot, that does capitalism better those who brought it there.

I bet the ex pat community has some colorful characters, have you met any?

[thehardestbutton] 01/10/2010 10:22

Trader

You asked about the poor living in Singapore and I was very interested to read this today in the Singapore press on a feature discussing the elections due next year.

(Regarding Jalan Besar GRC - the most central area of Singapore) - GRC is Group representation constituency - or council ward for the UK

Of the public assistance receipients - people who receive free medical assistance and cash payouts from the government every month - over 500 live in these two wards (Whampoa and Kreta Ayer). There are 270 in the other three wards giving the GRC a lion's share of the national total of 3,000. The payout is $360 per month (about £180).


So thats 3,000 people out of a population of 5 million people who rely solely on the government. Apparently there are around 100,000 low income families but as Singapore doesnt believe in 'Welfarism' they instead look to upgrade the family through social facilities like free child care and after school groups.

Educate the kids so they get a better job to bring the family out of that low income bracket.

[traderabc] 29/9/2010 18:55

European cities hit by anti-austerity protests



BBC News
Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Tens of thousands of protesters from around Europe have been marching across Brussels in a protest against spending cuts by some EU governments.

Other protests against austerity measures are being held in Greece, Italy, the Irish Republic and Latvia.

A general strike is also taking place in Spain, hitting transport and other public services.




[Videos] Protests & Riots Across Europe Against Austerity Measures

[traderabc] 29/9/2010 18:54

Engdahl on Austerity Anger: Demand to foot the bill for banks' corruption



Russia Today
Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Spain has been gripped by a 24-hour general strike against the government's plans to slash its budget. Thousands of passengers were left stranded in Madrid with two thirds of flights grounded due the actions by transport workers. A wave of anti-austerity demonstrations is expected all over Europe with tens of thousands marching on Brussels.

[traderabc] 29/9/2010 12:51

Marc Faber: The Fed Is Creating Dangerous Bubbles Around The World, And Stocks Will Tank In October



The original merchant of doom Marc Faber has a good, wide-ranging interview with the Economic Times of India.

For US investors, he argues that bullishness has come on too fast, and that the pain we haven't felt in September has merely been delayed until October and November.

And he also warns that the ramifications of Fed printing will be felt in unexpected ways around the World.

[traderabc] 29/9/2010 12:23

These people have the right idea, they offer a great example for the other PIIGS to follow



Geir Haarde, Iceland Ex-PM, Indicted For Role In Financial Crisis

REYKJAVIK, Iceland - Iceland's former Prime Minister Geir Haarde has been referred to a special court in a move that could make him the first world leader to be charged in connection with the global financial crisis.

After a heated debate Tuesday, lawmakers voted 33-30 to refer charges to the court against Haarde for allegedly failing to prevent Iceland's 2008 financial crash – a crisis that sparked protests, toppled the government and brought the economy to a standstill by collapsing its currency.

[traderabc] 29/9/2010 12:10

Rebel, default, abolish the Central banks, it's the only solution...



Toxic Bank' Cement Truck Blocks Irish Parliament

Cement truck blocks gate of Irish parliament in protest at colossal bailout bill at Anglo bank
The Associated Press


By SHAWN POGATCHNIK Associated Press Writer
DUBLIN September 29, 2010 (AP)



Police stand beside a cement truck which rammed the front gates of the Irish Parliament in Dublin...
(AP)

A cement truck plastered with anti-bank slogans blocked the entrance to the Irish parliament Wednesday as tensions mounted over the country's debt crisis and enormous bank bailouts.

At least one police guard narrowly escaped being hit as the truck drove up to Leinster House about 7:15 a.m., one lawmaker said. The truck stopped as it touched the entrance's ornate wrought-iron gates but caused no significant damage.

Police arrested the 41-year-old driver, who climbed out of the truck cabin's skylight. The doors of the cement truck - which has been used before in anti-government demonstrations - were welded shut and its windows covered in metal grills to prevent police from gaining access.

[traderabc] 29/9/2010 11:46

traderabc - 28 Sep'10 - 22:58 - 3807 of 3812 edit

Thanks THB, a fascinating response, I took the liberty of re posting it on the JR thread. Your answers have prompted me into a few more questions, if you don't mind.

Would you describe the government as 'big'? Is this a kind of Ron Paul economy? The taxes sound like it,how about financial regulation, did they get hit hard by the sub prime fraud? Is crime very low there? How about the poor? ,I presume they have some, any net? or is it everyone for themselves?

Lastly dare I ask, the 'politics' of the place?

I now remember the water treatment firm I mentioned, are you familiar with this one?




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TheHardestButton - 29 Sep'10 - 05:48 - 3808 of 3812

Not a problem Trader - (whats the JR thread?) - I won't claim copyright :-)

Ok - so Singapore is governed with a parliament set up similar to the UK. Though only one political party (PAP) has held power since independance Singapore is considered one of the least corrupt nations in the world (partly because the President and cabinet are paid so highly - imagine the UK tolerating Dave Cameron and his cabinet all picking up a salary of around 1.5 - 2 million quid a year). Im guessing that government is quite big though there are a number of pseudo government parts which incorporate private sector so not sure who is deemed to be public and who's not.

Not sure what a 'Ron Paul economy' is but Singapore is clearly an exports driven economy (but also has to import pretty much everything). Ive become familiar with the concept of 'entrepot' which sums up Singapore pretty well. In this respect the location is key and they have taken advantage of their strategic position.

As mentioned the government controls investment through the Economic Development Board and the sovereign wealth fund. Financial regulation is through MAS (Monetary Authority of Singapore) which is similar to the FSA in the UK. Im not aware of a draconian regulatory system so far but refer to my previous post about 'foreigners' investing here.

Singapore's GDP was hit hard by the credit crunch but more from the drop off in exports to other countries. It doesnt seem to have taken them long to recover and didnt suffer from having invested in sub prime or derivatives of the US housing market. Indeed Singapore bailed out UBS and several other large banks (though took a hit on BofA and sold its entire Barclays holdings in 2009).

Crime is very low here - that doesnt mean its not there. Bike thefts by labourers to get to work seem to be the main concern but absolute zero tolerance of graffiti, pick pockets, vandalism and begging plus a very low unemployment rate (2.3%) seem to help. Singapore has one of the highest rates of execution per population - usually for drug smuggling or murder. The cane is punishment for a raft of other crimes. Again imagine that in the UK?

Regarding the poor they do exist but you don't see them. Vagrants and the homeless are moved on or cleared from the streets and temples provide sanctuary and food every day. Tax is not paid by low paid workers (first SGD20K is tax free - where have you heard that idea before) and the next band is only 3.5% up to SGD80K where you would only pay 5%. This doesnt mean there is not an 'underclass' of cleaners and night workers who are exploited and underpaid. The social security is based on contributions into your own welfare pot so you can imagine that the lowest paid also have the thinnest safety net. Could see that concept catching on amongst the Daily Mail readers though.

The politics of the place... hmm would need to get back to you on that one.

Havent seen this water treatment company but will check it out. Interesting that Singapore doesnt have its own water source so imports a lot from Malaysia (often waste which it treats and then sends back). It's looking to break its ties to the mainland by turning the main city bay freshwater transforming it into a huge resorvoir. Personally I wouldnt be surprised if they just built an enormous bowl to catch all the rainwater - when it rains here it really does rain!!

Thats all for now - questions always welcome.

[traderabc] 28/9/2010 23:24

"when youth unemployment in europe reaches 30%+ they will begin to get angry.
so all of these old clowns who think they will work to 70 will have a fight on their hands."


Some of them are angry enough already, this generation does indeed have a totally legitimate complaint. 'We'(I use the term loosely )have left them an enormous mess that will result in their serfdom unless they do something about it.

I'd strongly recommend they default on the obligations made for them without their consent. Either we do it now or they do it asap, it has to happen eventually, the sooner the better.

Those central bankers should face nothing less then total default from all their debtors and banishment from any public financial activity. It's high time for the Austrian school of sound monetary practices to replace this failing model before things gets even uglier, ie WW3.