Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[traderabc] 05/9/2010 10:07

Agri-Food Thoughts September 3rd
Submitted by Ned W Schmidt C... on Fri, 3 Sep 2010
Agri-Food Price Index makes new high!

[traderabc] 05/9/2010 09:59

[OTE71] On the Edge with J.S. Kim

[traderabc] 03/9/2010 10:36

Dizzy and Confused?
Hunker Down

Richard Russell snippet
Dow Theory Letters
Sep 2, 2010

September 1, 2010 -- Many years ago I wrote a piece that I called "The Perfect Business." That piece has been available on my site ever since.

I've had more requests for that piece than anything I've ever written. It seems to me that the criteria for the "perfect business" is now more important than ever.

And why are those "perfect" criteria so important? I just read a piece in Dennis Gartman's always informative report. The piece was written by Porter Stansberry on August 21.

Stansberry starts with the thesis that you're in the process of starting a new business or expanding your already established business. But wait, you've inherited a greedy partner. Here's your partner talking.

"The deal is this -- I'll be your partner in any business you start, as long as that business is legal.

"But I can't give you any capital -- you'll have to come up with that on your own. I don't give you any labor -- that's up to you. What I will do, however, is demand that you follow all sorts of rules about what products and services you can offer, how much (and how often) you pay your employees, and where and when you're allowed to operate your business. That's my role in this affair -- to tell you what to do.

"Now in return for my rules, I'm going to take roughly half of whatever you make in the business each year.

"You're also going to have to pay me about 12% of whatever you decide to pay your employees because you've got to cover my expenses for promulgating all of the rules about who you can employ, when, where, and how.

"Now, after you've put your hard-earned savings at risk to start this business, and after you've worked hard at it for a few decades (paying me my 50% or a bit more), along the way each year, you might decide you'd like to cash out -- to finally live the good life you've been promised. Wait I want part of that too."

Russell comment -- Well you get the idea. And oh yes, you might buy a lot of life insurance. Because after you die, I'll take half of whatever your estate is worth. One final thought, if you ever try to stiff me or hide anything from me, I'll break down your door in the middle of the night, throw you in handcuffs in front of your wife and kids and threaten you with my crowd of agents, all carrying automatic weapons. Then I'll throw you in the slammer, and you'll stay there until we work things out to my satisfaction.

Wait, who's the guy who's doing all the talking and offering you such a great deal? What, you haven't guessed? It's the US government, your partner in success. What's this? Now you're rethinking your idea about starting a new business? And your neighbor is rethinking his fantasy of expanding his business? Don't worry,guys, go ahead, you've got a big, powerful partner who is "always there and ready to help." What more could anyone ask for?

With this kind of partner, would you want to start a new business? And we wonder why nobody is hiring.

It's the little guy, the moms and pops, who do most of the employing in this nation. And mom and pop are tearing their hair out these days, wondering how they're going to survive in the Obama world of "tax hell out of the rich, and share the wealth -- just spread it around." The rich man and the little guy are both dizzy and confused. Maybe best to hunker down and see what Congress comes up with.

###

Richard Russell

[traderabc] 02/9/2010 15:04

[KR74] Keiser Report – Markets! Finance! Soupy Sales!
September 2nd, 2010 by stacyherbert
Respond

Stacy Summary: We look at the scandals of foot massages and Ben Bernanke's big clown feet. In the second half of the show, Max talks to journalist Micha Kat about the Bilderberg Group's lawsuit against him.

[traderabc] 02/9/2010 11:54

Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Jim Rogers: They are Printing So Much Money That Stocks Will Go To 30,000

[traderabc] 31/8/2010 08:24

Rogers: Federal Reserve Is Destroying The Saving And Investment Class

[traderabc] 31/8/2010 08:16

Aug 29 Commodity Weekend Newsletter Matt Frailey BPT

[traderabc] 31/8/2010 08:15

Adam Hamilton
Archives

Ostrich Investors 1 (original)







Ostrich Investors 2 (update) Aug 27, 20

[traderabc] 30/8/2010 15:29

Is this the one?

Peter Schiff - Bush's Stimulus Caused Our Problems, Obama's is Making it Worse!

[traderabc] 30/8/2010 14:47

'I've said over and over that one of the most difficult things to do in investing is to get in early on a primary bull market and ride the bull through to the latter part of its final speculative third phase'

My take on gold

Richard Russell snippet
Dow Theory Letters
Aug 26, 2010

August 25, 2010 -- Dennis Gartman is an experienced commodity trader. Dennis has been very cautious about gold; he "sort of" likes gold, so he calls himself a "gold agnostic." For this reason it's most interesting to read what Dennis says about gold in today's report.

[traderabc] 30/8/2010 14:44

Flying Blind

Peter Schiff
Aug 30, 2010

Watching economists and media analysts react to breaking economic news is a bit like looking at a flock of pigeons flying over the New York skyline. A true wonder of the urban landscape, the flocks can include hundreds of individuals who show an uncanny ability to stay in tight formation as the group quickly zig-zags between buildings. What may be even more remarkable than their ability to randomly fly while maintaining cohesion is the flock's refusal to stick to any particular direction for very long, and their determination to fly feverishly without actually going anywhere. Sound familiar?

[traderabc] 30/8/2010 14:42

Friday, August 27, 2010
Jim Rogers : US bonds is a bubble in formation

Jim Rogers on the markets

[spec12] 29/8/2010 17:52

Peter Schiff was in top form on Friday in Newsnight BBC2.
Available on BBC I Player and in the first report.

[touch2002] 24/8/2010 22:17

LBO, thanks for that - personally remain pretty convinced on the upside on this given its valuation scarcely exceeds (swiftly realiseable/cash) net assets.

[lbo] 24/8/2010 18:08

The loss of the Heathrow Terminal 3 contract is worrying. They seem to be moving or being pushed away from BAA

[traderabc] 22/8/2010 10:25

Going your way balt, our bad news is your good.

Celente in top form..

[OTE69] On the Edge with Gerald Celente – 20 August 2010

[049balt] 21/8/2010 12:00

I just love it!!!


A ban on Russian wheat exports and a bout of bad weather in Canada has sparked wild swings in the wheat's price and fuelled fears of higher food prices.


Russia imposed a ban on grain exports on 15 August after suffering its worst drought in more than a century and prompted Ukraine to toy with the idea of capping its own exports.


Fears of a supply deficit sent the price of wheat soaring to a two-year high of $8.41 a bushel and almost double what they were in early July.


The US Department of Agriculture has done little to dampen the feverish speculation after slashing its outlook for world wheat production by 15.3 million tonnes to 645.7 million tonnes, fuelling demand for alternative supplies from the US, Europe and elsewhere.


The grain dilemma


Until recently grain prices were dogged by oversupply but concern's for this year's crops have transformed the market.


Analysts now estimate that Russia - last year's third largest exporter - may have to import significant amounts of grain this year in a bid to fill its shortfall.


While the country has been quick to scotch the rumours, analysts are predicting that Russia could import as much as five million tonnes of grain in the duration of the year.


Furthermore, Canada, the world's second-largest wheat exporter after the US, will harvest 23% less wheat than a year earlier due to unusually wet weather.


Based on the foregoing, the International Grains Council projects a global supply deficit of four million tonnes for 2010/11 for the first time in three years, Commerzbank reported.


The problems occurring in the Black Sea region have prompted key importers such as Egypt to look further afield, including to the US. While US wheat was often viewed as too costly by many overseas buyers, it welcomed its first purchase from the Egyptian government in almost a year.


What next for wheat?


While prices have swung back and forth over the past five days, taking their impetus first from reassuring talk of rainfall in Russia and then from fears Russia will need to import large quantities, wheat prices are still on an upward trajectory.


Analysts noted that while better weather conditions across the globe could help to ease supply concerns, it will hardly be possible to make up for the lost ground this season and the effects are likely to be felt until the end of the year.


Emmanuel Jayet, direct of agricultural commodities research at Societe Generale, said that the ban understandably "created a panic" among importers who had to find alternative suppliers. Given that wheat stocks have increased over the past two years, analysts have poured scorn on fears that the world is facing a shortage.


Nevertheless, Jayet said the price of wheat remains high and is unlikely to undergo a correction anytime soon because of logistical constraints connected with exporting out of the US, and fears that Russia's next crop could be disappointing.


Analysts warned that the consequence of severe weather conditions across the globe will extend into next year, despite agreement among them that fears of a food crisis or muted supply have been overdone.


Analysts Damien Courvalin and Allison Nathan at Goldman Sachs agree that uncertainty among investors is likely to keep prices firm.


"The magnitude of this price rally has been exacerbated by a near-record net short positioning and we expect ongoing production uncertainty to continue to lend support to prices in the near term."


Goldman Sachs has revised its six-month forecast higher to 650 cents per bushel from 550 cents/bu previously.


However, the pair believes that barring further major deterioration in crop production, wheat prices will sidle lower "once the market gains a better grasp on this year's wheat production and deficit".


Commerzbank supports this view, predicting a return to softer prices towards the end of 2010 and start of 2011 when it sees prices limp back down to 600 cents/bu from the 660 cents/bu it has mapped out for the third quarter.


The grainy issue


With wheat expected to hold onto its gains over the next couple of months, prices of its fellow commodities corn and soybeans are likely to feel a knock-on effect.


Following Russia's ban, the US has been quick to absorb the slack, exporting more corn and barley for stock feed. Corn prices are up 24% this past year and hit a 13-month high of $4.39 a bushel this month.


US net export sales of the commodity rose to the highest level in nearly 16 years last week, totalling 594,900 tonnes, with the top buyers Japan, Mexico and Egypt as importers look to replace feed wheat with corn.


Russia may also look to import some US corn to make up for its own losses, according to Russian market research company SovEcon.


Societe Generale has pegged first-quaerter 2011 average at 420 cents/bu, but said this will most certainly be revised upwards in light of recent events.


"There is an increasing risk that the coming corn harvest in the US will be revised down from the current record forecast and the corn balance sheet is already tight," Jayet warned.


Goldman Sachs agreed, stating that factors pointed towards "stronger feed demand for US corn, suggesting further tightening to the corn market than we were already expecting".


The rally in corn prices since late June prompted the US banking giant to forecast 415 cents/bu in three months and 450 cents/bu in six and 12 months.


Meanwhile, soybean prices also enjoyed their longest rally since 2007, culminating in a seven-month high earlier in August.


Goldman Sachs believes that over the long-term soybeans offer the most compelling drivers as expected strong demand growth from emerging markets will likely leave the market particularly sensitive to negative supply shocks.


"We would therefore take advantage of weaknesses in soybean prices to position for further strength."


High street hit


While the markets grapple with sharper prices for agricultural commodities, the high street consumer could be facing higher prices in the supermarket.


The United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organisation recently said that world food prices rose for the first time in three months in July, on higher costs for cereal and sugar.


In its latest trading update released this month, British bakery Greggs (GRG) said that the pressure on the trading environment in the second half of the year looks likely to increase.


"We now expect an increase in ingredient cost inflation in the second half of the year, following the recent rise in wheat prices," the FTSE 250-listed firm said.


Meanwhile, Premier Foods (PFD), the maker of Hovis Bread and Mr Kipling cakes, has warned that the price of a loaf of bread will increase as it seeks to recoup the recent spike in wheat prices.


"With the rising wheat costs, which have in recent weeks begun to escalate, it is unlikely that the division's second-half profit will match its 2009 profit level as this period last year particularly benefitted from wheat price deflation," it said.


Meat products are also likely to rise, as the spike in grain prices results in higher costs for US and European farmers to feed their livestock.


An exchange-traded contract in Chicago reported a 243% rise in "frozen pork bellies" compared to the start of the year, while fresh pork bellies are trading at a record high, some 53% firmer than a year ago.








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[traderabc] 20/8/2010 20:43

America: a walking dead-zombie country

Freitag, 20. August 2010 00:23
von Lars Schall

The high-profile financial pundit Max Keiser doesn't shy away from crystal-clear, unmistakable statements. The following exclusive interview is no exception. Mr. Keiser sees an attack exercised against the majority of people in the U.S., sets out why gold is in no bubble at all, points at a remarkable move by the Harvard University, and has an advice to some US-American billionaires disguised as noble philanthropists: "Just pay your taxes and shut up!"

Max Keiser, born January 23, 1960 in New Rochelle, N.Y., USA, has been involved with markets and finance for 25 years. He started his career as a stock broker on Wall Street after graduating 1983 from New York University.

He is the inventor of the "Virtual Specialist Technology" (US patent number 5950176)- a software system used by the Hollywood Stock Exchange, and is the creator, co-founder and former CEO of HSX Holdings/Hollywood Stock Exchange, which allows traders to exchange virtual securities such as "MovieStocks" and "StarBonds," and a convertible virtual currency, the Hollywood Dollar. The Hollywood Stock Exchange remains until today the highest volume stock exchange in the world. He currently has a patent pending for "crowd funding media properties" used in his latest creation, "piratefilm.com".

Mr. Keiser presented / produced TV and Radio formats at NBC, CBS, BBC, BBC World News, and the English programme of Al-Jazeera. For Iran's Press TV he's the host of "On the Edge," and with his co-host, Stacy Herbert, he presents for the Russian broadcaster RT TV the "Keiser Report" (see for more at: In addition, he has appeared as a financial pundit on a number of news-networks.

To his success as a financial analyst belong the following predictions:
In the September 2004 issue of The Ecologist magazine, Keiser correctly predicted the 2008 collapse of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac when he wrote, "My guess is that the two stocks that look the likeliest to implode at the hands of derivative-wielding Wall Street financial types (and other fundamentalists) preying on a US economy made weak by cheap money are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac."
In 2006 he correctly predicted that sub-prime mortgage-backed securities would be the cause of recession by 2008.
In 2007 he correctly predicted the break-down of Iceland's economy in 2008.
In 2009 he correctly predicted that Cantor Fitzgerald would fail in their attempt to launch box office futures contracts (based on his intellectual property).

Max Keiser, who's also a frequent contributor to "The Huffington Post" ( lives in Paris, France.

Mr. Keiser, in your initial email you wrote to me:

"The key to understanding the current situation is to understand that house prices, jobs, wages, and pensions in the US are all being attacked with original-issue debt dollar junk.

This will continue until the middle class has been completely wiped out."

[traderabc] 19/8/2010 22:42

Thursday, August 19, 2010
China : The second largest economy in The World

China just surpassed Japan as the second largest economy in the world , and Should current growth trends continue, China is set to surpass the U.S. as the world's largest economy by 2020, according to Pricewaterhouse Coopers, while Goldman Sachs is targeting 2027.

In the meantime, China can already boast to the following:

* -- The world's largest exporter.
* -- The world's largest auto market.
* -- The world's largest consumer of energy and second-biggest importer of crude.
* -- The world's largest buyer of iron ore and copper.
* -- Home to 4 of the world's 10-largest companies by market-cap.
* -- Home to 4 of the world's 10-largest banks by market-cap.
* -- Home of the world's largest IPO (Agricultural Bank of China, at $22.1 billion.)

[traderabc] 19/8/2010 22:40

The 10 Biggest Mistakes Investors Must Avoid in the Coming Decade

By Doug Hornig, Senior Editor, Casey Research


In today's shaky economy and jittery investment markets, investors may well find that their best moves are not discovering the next big thing or a fantastic value, but simply avoiding serious, and costly, mistakes.


Here are ten of the most common mistakes we see investors making everyday, and how to avoid making them yourself.

[philw2009] 18/8/2010 17:08

Annual report now up:-