Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[traderabc] 22/9/2010 20:30

21 Sep, 2010, 09.00PM IST,ET Now
Cautious on markets at current levels: Jim Rogers

Full Interview

In an exclusive interview with ET Now, investment guru Jim Rogers says he would mainly be long on commodities because whether the world gets better or not, commodities are going to do well. But he does worry about stocks because the stock markets are currently pretty high around the world, including India.

Would you be cautious on the Indian markets at the current levels or does everything seem to be hunky-dory?

I am always cautious whenever I am doing anything. The US and the Japanese central banks are intended to print a lot more money around this time. Money supply in the US has grown nearly 8% a year in last months and the Japanese two weeks ago made it clear that they were going to print more money. So we have this money flowing into the world and obviously it is going into the market. Your government, your central bank are going to be more cautious and I hope they are, but in the meantime, the money is going to go somewhere and it is going into stock markets around the world.

How much the market can go up? What kind of an upside could this money really lead to?

I am cautious because as the markets go higher, either they are going to have to continue printing money or come to the currency market from the bond market eventually. My way of playing is to be long commodities because either way whether the world gets better or does not get better, commodities are going to do well. I worry about stocks because I only see the stock markets are pretty high around the world, including India.

Since you mentioned that you would be bullish on commodities, what is it that excites you right now if indeed equities as an asset class does not, especially in India? What is it in the commodity space that you like at this point of time?

Fortunately or unfortunately, depending on how you look at and many of them are going up a lot, cotton is making new highs, sugar has been growing up, and gold you know what has been going on in the markets. I would look at things that have not moved up this much. Buy silver than gold, for instance, if you want to buy precious metal. I would like to buy coffee than some of the things that have moved up so much, but there is still a huge potential. If governments are going to continue to print money, we are going to have higher prices for commodities though you may not have higher prices for stocks somewhere down the road, but as long as you require money, it is going in the commodities, among other prices.

Among commodities, you still believe that despite the run up that we have seen in gold, there is more headroom out there?

No, gold has got a long way to go over the next decade. Indian investors should not sell it. Gold is going to be much-much better off after two years from now.

In light of the fact that a lot of people are now talking about probably doing some defensive buying, would it be sensible to say that the road ahead would essentially lead to some bit of defensive buying in equity markets and even in the commodity markets, it would really be not too much of aggressive buying or speculative buying, but more of defensive bets being placed?

If I am going to do defensive buying, I would not buy stocks. If the world economy does not get better, stocks are going to fall apart, but commodities might seem to go up because of so much money being turned in and because shortages are developing. We have some serious shortages developing in many commodities markets. If the economy gets better, they are going to do well and if the economy does get better, they are going to continue to print money and money printing is always with commodities. So if I would do any defensive buying, I would start in the commodities market, not the stock markets.

Just academically, how would you place your portfolio right now? How would you divide a portfolio across asset classes whether it's commodities, equities? If you were to allocate money across asset classes as per portfolio, what would be your break-up?

I would mainly be long on commodities and some foreign currencies, things like the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and Canadian dollar. I would own currencies and commodities and I would probably have short in the stock markets.

If you were indeed to be bullish on certain commodities and I have seen a lot of people correlate stocks to those commodities as well, would you believe that could also be a good investment for somebody who is not active in the commodity space? If indeed commodities are the way forward, would the underlying equities also be something that you could probably prefer?

That is a way but then you have to be a very good stock picker. Many studies have shown you are better off buying commodities themselves rather than commodity stocks unless you are a very good stock picker. If you are great with finding companies that are going to discover natural gas in Mumbai, you should buy all the shares you can. But there are 100 natural gas companies in the world and we have got to get the right one. We have a big company in America called Enron, which was a natural gas company. It went to zero, it just went bankrupt. Natural gas, yes, it can go down, but it cannot go to zero. But be careful, if you get the right stock, you will make a lot more money, but otherwise just stick with the commodities.

What is it on the global front which if becomes effective or becomes a reality in terms of events could actually kind of pose a bit of a roadblock to the cartwheel that we are seeing over the last 3-6 months? Anything on the anvil, any dark cloud?

Anything on the horizon which could cause problems?

Yes, to the equity market run-up?

Many things have caused problems. Some Americans have problems in the markets, currencies, commodities, stocks and everything else. Some major companies could go bankrupt still. The UK suddenly surprises all and winds up in bankruptcy and many surprises are coming down the road. We have had some big moves in currency reselling and whenever that happens, somebody is obviously on the wrong side. So this can bring some more surprises coming in the world economy and you have get calls, it is going to cause problems and that may spread to the rest of it. I just hope I am not on the wrong side, and hope you are on the wrong side.

Given that you are very bullish on commodities, there is big correlation there to rising inflation across the globe. We have seen the Indian central bank raising rates, but your expectation is that other major central bankers also need to follow. So how big a concern is inflation in your mind and do you see that really hitting growth across?

I wish their central bankers were in the American central bank. The central bank, for a change, has been going more cautious and more realistic about what is going on in the world, but not just the US, Australia and Norway. Means several central banks have been raising interest rates routinely because they are not the only one. I mean, I am not the only one to face the inflation problems. Many countries have inflation and they worry about it, but they have it too. So I think your central bank has been doing a good job. I think they could do a better job. I wish that Indian central bankers were running the American Central Bank, whichever the ones we have.

What is your sense Jim, what could spoil the party right now even though we are looking at an equity market rally? There has been a rally in the commodity space, especially gold. What do you think in the global market environment are you most worried about that could perhaps dampen the momentum right now?

Well, I guess worries will be the most if there is some kind of crazy war efforts, somebody doing something foolish in the Middle East or elsewhere. I guess in the Middle East I would be most worried. But also the fact that just bonds are getting too much high. We have a bubble forming in bonds. Bonds are selling at much higher price and that bubble is going to burst some day. I do not know if it's going to pop this year or in 2012. I have no idea, but it's worrisome levels. And I do not know how much longer you can keep promoting a bubble like that. The central bank in the US is doing it. Eventually no matter how good a bubble looks, it pops and when it pops, people sell their bonds and that is going to happen. I just do not know when.

I have followed your comments for the last 3-3.5 years and correct me if I am wrong, but I have seen you being fairly bullish on irrigation stories in India or the water story in India so on so forth. The agri story is that still excites you as far as the Indian markets go?

Very much. Some sectors in the Indian and world economy are going to do well no matter what happens. Water is one of them. China has a huge water problem too. Agriculture has got a marvelous future around the world. We are seeing that in the agricultural prices.

So at this point given that we are celebrating or rather enjoying fresh highs on the Indian indices, India is the complete avoid as far as the equity market is concerned?

With regards to what I said before, I am sceptical about portfolio. I would long commodities and currencies, and short in stocks.

[tenapen] 20/9/2010 18:01

I think it would go without saying that Soros knows his effect on the market when he speeks and being the shark/clever man ! that he is he will use that power to creat a profit.

I think the difference between Warren Buffet and Goeoge Soros is timing. WB is a true investor who is in a chosen company for the long term growth. GS is a trader who will use all means possible to make a profit. Both are successful and this shows there is room for both styles.

My style is the same as WB as i along with Jim Rodgers (an earlier link of yours) is the worlds worste trader. I am though on the lookout for a bombed out US fund as i do beleave it will not go down without a fight.

Keep up the good work on this thread, traderabc :-)

[traderabc] 20/9/2010 17:30

Gold is on the Move

Mary Anne & Pamela Aden
The Aden Sisters
Posted Sep 20, 2010

Gold is looking good. Since its summer low of $1160 in late June, it has surged to $1275. That's a nearly 10% gain in less than two months, and even though gold has again broken its all-time record high, it's poised to move still higher.

[traderabc] 20/9/2010 13:43

Thanks to slugabed on the house thread for this

[traderabc] 20/9/2010 13:06

Jim Rickards- Gold Standard is Plan B and Revalue Gold at $5000+ (Dollar is Collapsing)

[traderabc] 19/9/2010 21:06

Kind words tenapen, he is indeed a smart operator however he's not one to place a lot of trust in. I think it has been established that caution should be applied when listening to him, especially when he's being ambiguous with his language, as you can be utterly sure he won't say something (the truth) if there is the slightest chance that his statement could hurt one of his many positions in the market.
Bear in mind he came out slating gold again a week or two ago, last time he did that it was revealed he was buying it at the same time.


Soros: China the winner after The Financial crash

Sept 15 - In an exclusive interview with Chrystia Freeland, George Soros says that China is the winner after The Financial crash rising very rapidly because the west is sinking the shift of power is phenomenal I have never seen anything like it and I think it is difficult to find a parallel Soros explains ,because for the rise of a new power it takes decades and it is happening here in much shorter time...this is a very difficult relationship to manage but it is very important that it should be managed because the world can't afford the world economy falling apart...so great tensions and particularly with regard to the currency , because basically China has been so successful because it discovered a fabulous machinery , fabulous mechanism for scheming the surplus value of Chinese labor to the benefit of the state it's the undervalued currency , it is like taxation except that it is not taxation because people in china work very hard trying to get rich then their labor is harvested sort of to speak through an undervalued currency for the benefit of the state and that is what made China so successful..........

[traderabc] 19/9/2010 20:58

Gold,arson and London's out of silver...


[OTE73] On the Edge with Jim Willie
September 19th, 2010 by stacyherbert

Stacy Summary: Interview with Jim Willie, air date 17 September 2010.

[traderabc] 19/9/2010 12:06

Gerald Celente: US Economy = Depression



Russia Today
Sept 18, 2010

Famous investor and billionaire George Soros referred to the US economy as "blah," saying he expects a further slowdown. US President Barack Obama has insisted however that the US economy is heading in the right direction. Gerald Celente, the director of the Trends Research Institute said the economy is not just blah, it's in a depression. It's the summer of the greatest recession," he said.

[traderabc] 17/9/2010 18:44

Ron Paul: O'Donnell Can Win



CNN
Sept 17, 2010

On Wednesday, Congressman Ron Paul appeared on CNN's Anderson Cooper 360 to discuss the political climate and how he has worked with others to advance liberty.

[traderabc] 17/9/2010 11:29

If this link doesn't work , try the 'older posts' link then go down the page a bit.

Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Jim Rogers - Silver better than Gold - September 2010

cut off TV-Interview-Bloomberg sept 2010

[traderabc] 17/9/2010 11:26

Thursday, September 16, 2010
Soros: China the winner after The Financial crash

Sept 15 - In an exclusive interview with Chrystia Freeland, George Soros says that China is the winner after The Financial crash rising very rapidly because the west is sinking the shift of power is phenomenal I have never seen anything like it and I think it is difficult to find a parallel Soros explains ,because for the rise of a new power it takes decades and it is happening here in much shorter time...this is a very difficult relationship to manage but it is very important that it should be managed because the world can't afford the world economy falling apart...so great tensions and particularly with regard to the currency , because basically China has been so successful because it discovered a fabulous machinery , fabulous mechanism for scheming the surplus value of Chinese labor to the benefit of the state it's the undervalued currency , it is like taxation except that it is not taxation because people in china work very hard trying to get rich then their labor is harvested sort of to speak through an undervalued currency for the benefit of the state and that is what made China so successful..........

[traderabc] 17/9/2010 11:23

[KR78] Keiser Report – Markets! Finance! Economic Recklessness!
September 16th, 2010 by stacyherbert

Stacy Summary: We look at the scandals of the 'living' dead centenarians collecting pensions in Japan and of Iceland's ex-premier defending his innocence against charges of 'economic recklessness.' In the second half of the show, Max goes to Detroit to talk global deflationary collapse with Nicole 'Stoneleigh' Foss of Automatic Earth.

[traderabc] 16/9/2010 10:17

Tags: gold · Jibber Jabber135 Comments
[KR77] Keiser Report – Markets! Finance! Global Debt Collapse!
September 14th, 2010 by stacyherbert
Respond

Stacy Summary: We look at emails from viewers on their "Peak America" moments and then check out the scandals of the Irish choice of being "good Europeans" or "bad Europeans", as a result of bankers offering only "bad banks"; while Iceland refuses to settle at any price. In the second half of the show, Max goes Down Under to talk to economist Steve Keen about the global debt collapse.

[traderabc] 14/9/2010 21:04

Indeed SPEC12, their days in the sun will be over soon as it is almost inevitable that they will destroy themselves with their greed and and lack of vision.



The backlash begins against the world landgrab



Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
London Telegraph
Sept 13, 2010

Last week's long-delayed report by the World Bank suggests that purchases in developing countries rose to 45m hectares in 2009, a ten-fold jump from levels of the last decade. Two thirds have been in Africa, where institutions offer weak defence.

As is by now well-known, sovereign wealth funds from the Mid-East, as well as state-entities from China, the Pacific Rim, and even India are trying to lock up chunks of the world's future food supply. Western agribusiness is trying to beat them to it. Western funds – many listed on London's AIM exchange – are in turn trying to beat them. The NGO GRAIN, and farmlandgrab.com, have both documented the stampede in detail.

Hedge funds that struck rich 'shorting' US sub-prime have rotated into the next great play of our era: 'long' soil. "Productive agricultural land with water on site, will be very valuable in the future.

[spec12] 13/9/2010 14:55

Trader ... Sounds very similar to a Goldman Sachs trading floor.

[traderabc] 12/9/2010 22:03

Mutant Rat Epidemic Spreading Economic Black Plague
Submitted by D Sherman Okst on Thu, 9 Sep 2010
Rat-Pack-Series Part 1 of 6


We are in the midst of a rat infestation of epidemic proportions -- an 'Economic Black Death', a plague, spread by Xenopsylla cheopis (rat-fleas).

These are no ordinary rats. No. Our infestation consists of 900-hundred pound, grotesque, disgustingly despicable, giant, disease-carrying, plague-creating, rat-flea ridden mutant rats.

These rat-fleas carry, bite at, and fatally infect, the two things we need to survive: A sound economy and freedom.

You'd think 900 pound rodents spreading an Economic Black Death would be noticeably obvious to everyone.

Unfortunately, this is not the case.

[traderabc] 12/9/2010 18:23

[OTE72] On the Edge with Karl Denninger

[traderabc] 12/9/2010 18:14

Chinese Bestseller Slams Goldman Sachs For Crisis

by The Associated Press
Associated Press



A book titled "Goldman Sachs Conspiracy" is displayed Wednesday Aug. 25, 2010, in Chongqing, China. Goldman Sachs & Co., reviled in the U.S. for its role in the financial crisis, is now getting hammered in the world's No. 2 economy with the sensationalist new book accusing the investment bank of trying to destroy China.
text size A A A
SHANGHAI August 25, 2010, 10:00 am ET

Goldman Sachs & Co., reviled in the U.S. for its role in the financial crisis, is now getting hammered in the world's No. 2 economy with a sensationalist new book accusing the investment bank of trying to destroy China.

The "Goldman Sachs Conspiracy," which has sold over 100,000 copies since it was released in June, reaching popular website Sina.com's top-10 list, follows another by author Li Delin, "Eliminate All Competitors - How Goldman Sachs Wins Over the World," published last year.

Li, a financial journalist, appears to have hit pay dirt among Chinese readers with an appetite for the would-be exposes that get prominent display in downtown bookstores, such as "Who Killed Toyota: the Truth of America's Attack" and "Currency War."

The nearly 300-page, highly dramatized account covers much of the same ground as a widely cited piece by Matt Taibbi last year in the Rolling Stone magazine that portrayed the Wall Street institution as a "a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money."

[traderabc] 10/9/2010 23:51

I managed to stay awake till the end of this, though it was a bit touch and go at some points.
This guy knows the score, this is a big picture view of the gulag casino ponzi debt money system, he uses some novel ways to convey the complex machinations of the dark art of central banking., most refreshingly he concludes with some solutions.

Worth a watch, especially for those who would deny that there is an ongoing new world order agenda. Want proof? An abundance is offered here.



Renaissance 2.0

Lessons 1 to 6.

[traderabc] 09/9/2010 16:15

Jim Sinclair: Strap In For Gold's Move To $1650 By January



Jim Sinclair
Mineset
Thursday, September 9, 2010

Now that expectations for Gold at very significant prices are being offered by various rational sources, there is one thing you can be sure of. That one thing is $1650.

I am getting many emails asking how it is possible for the gold price to reach $1650 by early January.

[traderabc] 09/9/2010 14:32

[KR76] Keiser Report – Markets! Finance! Extradition!
September 9th, 2010 by stacyherbert
Respond

Stacy Summary: We look at the scandals of no fiscal or monetary bullets left in the bankrupt warfare states of America. In the second half of the show, Max talks to Huffington Post blogger, Mike Jensen, about his call for Americans to unite against the emergency in their nation.

[traderabc] 09/9/2010 11:40

Jim Rogers The Canadian Dollar Is The Soundest Currency

Jim Rogers explains the flaws of some of our world currencies and his thoughts of future reserve currencies. He also explains why he likes the Canadain Dollar.

[traderabc] 05/9/2010 10:38

Episode 68 – 28 August 2010, Guest: Dr Joern Berninger