Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[i_hopi] 02/10/2009 19:15

traderabc .. One week you're posting from 'BUY base metal blogs, the next you're posting from don't buy base metal blogs. Don't your nuts get sore straddling the fence all the time?

[traderabc] 02/10/2009 18:58

Jim Rogers On CNBC (6 videos)

[traderabc] 02/10/2009 18:54

Friday, October 2, 2009
I wouldn't buy the base metals right now Jim Rogers


Jim Rogers wouldn't buy Base metals right now

in an interview yesterday with CNBC Tv18 Jim Rogers was asked about base metals :
" What about the base metals, we have seen a lot of volatile moves across most of those base metals, where do you see them headed from here?"

[traderabc] 30/9/2009 18:17

September 30, 2009
CNBC Interview: The Yen, US Dollar, Stocks and Base Metals

Q: It has been a big run for equity markets first and foremost, what have you made of it?

A: The governments around the world are pouring huge amounts of money into the world economy. It has to go somewhere and the easiest, best way for it to go is in the financial markets.

Q: It has also concomitant with a big fall in the dollar and there is a call now for greater weakness in that currency, would you concur?

A: I am not optimistic about the US dollar long-term. In fact, the US dollar long-term is going to be a disaster. However, there are many people in the world right now who are terribly pessimistic about the dollar including me, many people have sold the dollar short, and so it would not surprise me if there were not a big rally. If a rally comes, I plan to sell that rally but I am not selling the dollar down here.

Q: What is your call on the strength that the yen has seen and the kind of a nervousness that most of those export-oriented markets are exhibiting? Where do you see it headed from here?

A: I own the yen so I am very pleased to see the yen going higher. Various things are happening in Tokyo and Japan. They are the second largest creditor nation in the world plus their government has given big incentives for people to bring the yen back into Japan. Billions of yen have been invested outside of Japan and now there is good reason for them to bring it back.

So you have a new government [in Japan], you have incentives to bring the yen back, you have the carry trade unwinding, there are many reasons for the yen to continue to go higher. I own the yen and I hope it does go higher.

Q: What about the base metals, we have seen a lot of volatile moves across most of those base metals, where do you see them headed from here?

A: Base metals have had a huge rally, as you have pointed out. I know I wouldn't be buying the base metals right now, I do own base metals - I am not selling base metals - but I don't like to jump on a train, which is moving at a rapid rate. Base metals have gone up a whole lot in the last nine, 10 months. So I am not doing anything except for watching.

Q: You have tracked and watched the Chinese market as well for many years, there is concern on where that market might be headed and why it is lagging the performance of others?

A: I would hardly call it lagging the performance of others. The Chinese market doubled between the fall of last year and August of this year. So it was one of the strongest markets in the world, if not the strongest. It has calmed down in the last month or two but anything that doubles in ten months should slow down and consolidate. Who knows where it is going to go from here but I own Chinese shares, I have not sold any of my Chinese shares because longer-term I am very optimistic about China.

this is the transcript of Jim Rogers latest video interview on CNBC, September 2009

[traderabc] 30/9/2009 18:14

Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Jim Rogers and Don Harrold Interview September 24 2009

[contrarian2investor] 29/9/2009 18:02

Hi all,

The Future of Banking by: Prieur du Plessis September 29, 2009


This is a must-view video clip, but be warned that it runs for 53 minutes.


The Future of Banking by: Prieur du Plessis September 29, 2009



c2i

[traderabc] 29/9/2009 00:40

The dollar is dead - long live the renminbi
Whatever happens at the G20, the days of Western dominance are at an end, says Jeremy Warner.

By Jeremy Warner
Published: 7:42PM BST 25 Sep 2009



The balance of global economic power has shifted Photo: PA
Sometimes it takes a crisis to restore reason and equilibrium to the world, and so it is with the trade and capital imbalances that were arguably the root cause of the financial collapse of the past two years.

To economic purists, the changes now under way in demand and trade are inevitable, necessary and even desirable. Even so, dollar supremacy and the geo-political dominance of the West are both likely long-term casualties.

[traderabc] 28/9/2009 00:05

35 Million Americans on Food Stamps: 12 Percent of U.S. Population on Food Stamps Highest Since Records Kept in 1969


My Budget 360
Sunday, September 27, 2009

There are a few statistics that you can look at to see actual human pain in the real economy. You can look at the recent stock market rally yet even a 50+ percent rally is unable to create jobs or stem the economic pain of those at the lower end of the economic spectrum. Looking at food stamp participation from the United States Department of Agriculture shows us a very disturbing picture. When we did a report on this in August of 2009 we had 34 million Americans on food stamps. In the span of one month, the number jumped by over a million.

[contrarian2investor] 25/9/2009 16:06

Hi traderabc,

Here is a small article on commodities.

c2i
================================


Inflation Premiums at Multi-Week Highs Suggest Breakout for Commodities
by: Daily Trading September 24, 2009

[traderabc] 25/9/2009 13:48

Peter Schiff Says Gold to $5,000/ounce and US Market Rally Will Fade


Benzinga
Friday, Sept 25th, 2009

Peter Schiff, President of Euro Pacific Capital, stated in a web cast today on Yahoo! Finance that he sees gold reaching $5000/ounce and the US market faltering.

He believes due to the governments poor policy decisions over the past 9 years, and recent amplification of these same mistakes the US dollar is set to fall to fresh lows versus commodities and other currencies.

Schiff said China and other Asian markets are especially fertile ground for investment as their underlying economic conditions and policies are far superior to the US and are immune from a weakening US dollar.

Investors can emulate Schiff’s advice by buying Ishares China ETF (NYSE: FXI) or SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD).

[traderabc] 25/9/2009 11:33

Inflation is Our Future

Puru Saxena
Sep 24, 2009

At present, there is a lot of confusion amongst the investment community and opinion is divided as to whether we will witness inflation or deflation.

On one hand, the deflationists are claiming that given the extremely high debt levels in the West, further inflation is impossible. On the other side of the argument, many proponents of inflation are calling for Zimbabwe style hyper-inflation. In this business, everyone is entitled to their opinion; however it is my contention that we will get neither deflation nor hyper-inflation. If my assessment is correct, once business activity picks up, our world will have to deal with high inflation.

Although I have great sympathy for the deflation crowd, given the reckless attitude of the central bankers and their ability to create debt-based money, I do not believe deflation (contraction in the supply of money and total debt) is very likely.

[contrarian2investor] 24/9/2009 21:50

traderabc,

Thanks for your reply, "I'm planning to bail out of AIGA at 4.5 with a moderate loss if it comes to it. It's performance is disappointing but not terminal(yet) It really ought to go up as far as the $ falls".

Yes I agree, however I will continue to hold into 2010.

Furthermore I am runnung the slide rule over AIGL. Have you ever considered it?

With the G20 meeting this weekend the current market corrections could be curtailed.

c2i

[traderabc] 24/9/2009 18:05

Peter Schiff on Fast Money CNBC 9/17/09

[traderabc] 24/9/2009 16:52

1/4 Marc Faber on FSN, Sept 19, 2009

[traderabc] 24/9/2009 16:40

Peter Schiff says DEFLATION will be BIG . . . . . . . . . . when you mesure it in gold !

[traderabc] 24/9/2009 16:14

The most important chart you’ll see all day!
by Peter Degraaf | September 23, 2009


A chart is like a photograph. It locks in ‘the activity’ right up to the last moment. A chart is a reflection of the actions of multiple humans interacting in the marketplace. Since humans tend to act in ‘herd-likeR17; manner, reacting to the news they hear, read and see, a chart has a certain amount of predictive energy while it reflects the past.

“A trend in motion remains in motion until it is stopped.”

[traderabc] 24/9/2009 16:12

AGRI-FOOD THOUGHTS
by Ned W. Schmidt, CFA, CEBS
Schmidt Management Company
September 22, 2009

Bump and grind economic numbers might suggest that the Western economies, including the U.S., have seen the worst of the economic slide. Despite that appearance of an economic bottom, that the economic policies of the Obama Regime are a failure, and will continue to be a failure, is now increasingly obvious. When nations like China and India are demonstrating superior economic performance perhaps the time has come to either, one, jettison the bumbling economic policies of the Obama Regime, or, two, look elsewhere for opportunities.

Western economies made two attempts at economic witchcraft, the internet/technology stock bubble and then the housing/mortgage bubble. Both of these attempts at financial free lunches failed miserably. Neither was grounded in either sound business fundamentals or reasonable financial concepts. Both were get rich quick schemes, encouraged by the inbred economics community incapable of thought beyond a power point lecture.

[traderabc] 24/9/2009 11:48

Gold & Silver: The Shining Stars

Mary Anne & Pamela Aden
The Aden Sisters
Posted Sep 24, 2009
Courtesy of www.adenforecast.com

Gold, silver and gold shares are jumping up. Gold hit a record high this month and all three are in 'break out' mode. The time of truth is at hand and it won't take much more strength to confirm that a stronger phase of the eight year old bull market has begun.

[traderabc] 24/9/2009 10:59

How To Spot The Breakout In Gold

Medium-Term Gold Technical Analysis

Bill Downey
September 16, 2009

[traderabc] 24/9/2009 10:59

This one should be safer then SLV and GLD, I'm thinking of selling them both and buying this in the break out ($1050 ish spot price)
Safe(er), 50% Gold/Silver, 90% allocated metal, no storage fees, one of the best options for patient long term investors, look at a 10 year graph, the trend is obvious, the fundamentals superb.The volatility (40%+) scary. What more could you want?

[traderabc] 24/9/2009 00:56

"Have they imposed position limits on concentrated positions held by a few (obviously corrupt)firms?"


I don't think so as JP Morgan was apparently short 25% of world production a few weeks ago



"It look like the limits will be imposed, however as you can see from my previous links. Companies are already devising ways around proposed regulations."


As they have always done.


"Which obviously corrupt)firms are you referring to? Surely all of them have been rooted out?"


Not at all, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, the Fed Reserve bank, there is still lots more rooting out to be done.



"In the mean-time my LWEA & AIGA investments continues to fall. Any suggestions? TIA"


I'm planning to bail out of AIGA at 4.5 with a moderate loss if it comes to it. It's performance is disappointing but not terminal(yet) It really ought to go up as far as the $ falls.

[traderabc] 23/9/2009 22:55

Bank President Admitted that All Credit Is Created Out of Thin Air With the Flick of a Pen Upon the Bank’s Books


Washington’s Blog
Wednesday, Sept 23rd, 2009

In First National Bank v. Daly (often referred to as the “Credit River” case) the court found: that the bank created money “out of thin air”:

[The president of the First National Bank of Montgomery] admitted that all of the money or credit which was used as a consideration [for the mortgage loan given to the defendant] was created upon their books, that this was standard banking practice exercised by their bank in combination with the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneaopolis, another private bank, further that he knew of no United States statute or law that gave the Plaintiff [bank] the authority to do this.

The court also held:

The money and credit first came into existence when they [the bank] created it.

[traderabc] 23/9/2009 22:35

HSBC bids farewell to dollar supremacy
The sun is setting on the US dollar as the ultra-loose monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve forces China and the vibrant economies of the emerging world to forge a new global currency order, according to a new report by HSBC.


By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Published: 7:14PM BST 20 Sep 2009



All change: the dollar is losing ground as the world's reserve currency Photo: Bloomberg News

"The dollar looks awfully like sterling after the First World War," said David Bloom, the bank's currency chief.

"The whole picture of risk-reward for emerging market currencies has changed. It is not so much that they have risen to our standards, it is that we have fallen to theirs. It used to be that sovereign risk was mainly an emerging market issue but the events of the last year have shown that this is no longer the case. Look at the UK – debt is racing up to 100pc of GDP," he said

[masurenguy] 23/9/2009 17:56

careful - 23 Sep'09 - 730: soros/rogers are wrong yet again. past their sell by date.

Really.....and how does your investment record compare with theirs ?
Are you posting from your 200ft yacht in the Caribbean - hmm........thought not !

[careful] 23/9/2009 17:25

soros and rogers cannot bask in the glory of that good day when he bluffed norman lamont.
lamont was hardly class opposition.
they have both been hopelessly wrong many time since.

personally i would buy $ and stirling right now.
king/bernanki will fix the currency as soon as they can.
as bankers they must hate this situation, being forced to trash their currencies.

soros/rogers are wrong yet again. past their sell by date.