Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[l m] 15/7/2009 23:44

"Does having your former CEO being able to choose who among your competitors lives, or dies, make you a genius?"

Yup. Pretty much. Cannot think of a more genius thing to do. Ever.

"Does having your former CEO bail you out via the backdoor of AIG, make you a genius?"

Yup. Pretty much.

Yes is the answer to all the above questions. Bloody genius.

[traderabc] 15/7/2009 22:22

The Genius of Goldman?
July 14th, 2009 · No Comments · Politics, Money and Markets

The Genius of Goldman?

What’s up with the mainstream media acolytes who keep
aluding to the genius of Goldman Sachs?

What genius?

If it wasn’t for their former CEO Hank Paulson bankrupting
their competition (Bear and Lehman) and then extorting
Congress behind closed doors under the threat of martial law,
they wouldn’t even be in business today.

Does having your former CEO being able to choose who among
your competitors lives, or dies, make you a genius?

Does having your former CEO bail you out via the backdoor
of AIG, make you a genius?

Does running the latest shadow-government version of
INSLAW/PTECH/PROMIS software and front running the market
(not mention their own clients) as the defacto trading arm
of the Plunge Protection Team make you a genius?

Does stuffing profits offshore and only paying a 1% income tax
rate, after being bailed out by taxpayers who pay 20-30-40
times that, make you a genius?

Was former Goldman Chairman and NY Fed head Stephen Friedman a
genius, or just another front running, inside trader?

Since when does front running & shearing the sheep make one a genius?

Goldman is no more a genius than is the IRS.

One robs you blind under the protection of the law of the land,
and the other robs you blind while operating outside of it.

SliderOnTheBlack

[traderabc] 15/7/2009 20:06

Marc Faber’s latest investment outlook from his Gloom Boom and Doom report.

1 . Earlier this year it was easy to call for a strong rebound in asset markets. Markets were extremely over-sold and sentiment was extremely negative. This is no longer the case.

2. Bullish sentiment is higher than at the 2007 peak.

3. Worrisome is that corporate insiders have been selling at an extremely high pace. The last time there were more US corporate executives reducing their stock holdings than increasing them was in June 2007 shortly before the stock market topped out. According to Bloomberg,
“executives at 252 companies in the S&P 500 unloaded shares since March 10, with total net sales reaching $1.2 billion, according to data compiled by Princeton, New Jersey-based InsiderScore, which tracks stocks. Companies with net sellers outnumbered those with buyers by almost 9-to-1 last week, versus a ratio of about 1-to-1 in the first week of the rally.”

4. Another negative for the stock market is that the demand supply situation has deteriorated. According to TrimTabs Investment Research, prior to May 2009 the highest level of share issuance in a given month was $38 billion. May brought about a new all time record with monthly sales totaling $64 billion! As can be seen from Figure 13, the bull market of 2003 to 2007 was partly driven by a reduction of shares outstanding through buy-backs and M&A activity (leveraging). Now, however, deleveraging is the order of the day and share issuance is running at a record.

5. Share issuance is also running at a record level in many foreign markets and is diluting existing shareholders. In Singapore, equity funds raised as a percentage of total market capitalization is at an all time high.

6. I have to confess that I do not have a very strong conviction at this time. For the S&P 500 there is strong support around 880 and resistance around 950. I could envision a scenario where we break out briefly on the upside before a more meaningful correction unfolds. But as mentioned above, renewed weakness is likely to provide a buying opportunity.

7. Personally, I would not be surprised to see for a while renewed deflationary fears
developing with bonds rallying (as mentioned in last month’s report), the US dollar rebounding and commodities and equities coming under renewed pressure.

8. I have had many professional gamblers as friends and as clients (two of them made over $500 million – starting with nothing at all - by using computers to calculate the odds of bets on horses - I have seen the money, so it is no exaggeration). Most of the time the odds were not particularly favorable and they only took small positions. But once in a while, the odds were very favorable to take a large bet and that’s when they made the big money.

Right now, I do not see anything that offers a particularly favorable risk reward opportunity and, therefore, I would take it easy. My doctor advised me “to cut back on predictions, “because as Mark Twain observed: “prophecy is a good line of business, but it’s full of risks.”

[traderabc] 15/7/2009 17:06

China's foreign reserves top $2tn



Foreign investors are buying Chinese property and stocks


China's foreign exchange reserves, the world's largest, have surpassed $2 trillion (£1.2tn), the country's central bank has said.

Currency reserves rose 17.8% from June 2008 to a record $2.13tn. Its currency stockpile is twice the size of Japan's - the second-biggest holder.

The reserves rose as foreign investment flowed back into China

[traderabc] 15/7/2009 13:31

Commodities is the place to be, says Jim Rogers
14 Jul 2009, 0013 hrs IST, Andy Mukherjee, ET Now


In an exclusive interview with ET NOW , Mr Rogers reiterated his view that a currency

crisis could happen any
time in the near future. But he’s not sure yet who’s going to pay
the price — pound sterling, US dollar or even the rupee. Excerpts: ( Watch )

The commodities rally seems to have paused. The Rogers International Commodity Index has come off 13% since June 12. This pullback, essentially as I can see, is because of tin, energy and silver even as some of those agri commodities like orange juice, sugar and cotton have done well. What are your expectations going forward for commodities?

That's the way I know you know about commodities. You read The Economic Times and your ET TV. So, you know that the markets always have corrections whether they are going up or down. Nothing goes straight up or down forever. So, it's having a normal correction. In my view, the best place to be is in real assetscommodities, because if the world is going to recover, they (commodities) will recover first because of the shortages and if the world economy is not going to recover, they are still the best place to be, because governments around the world are printing huge amounts of money. So, if you got to own something, I don't much to own besides commodities.

In India, we are getting worried about the monsoon. We are looking out of our windows and not finding any clouds, and there is also talk about El Nino weather formation. Is this something you would advise investors to keep an eye on?

Of course, I would. The world's inventories of food are at the lowest they have been in decades. We haven't have had any serious weather problems around the world for several decades as a matter of fact. So, with fairly good weather, we have been having bad harvest or we have been consuming more than we have been producing. Can you imagine what's going to happen to the price of agriculture if we have bad weather around the world?

The last time we met here in Mumbai you had a sachet of sugar in your pocket and you pulled it out to underscore your point of impending shortage about agri commodities. You have been right about sugar as far as we can see from the price charts. What are you hiding today in your pockets? A silver coin, a hip flask full of crude oil, may be?

I do actually have a silver coin in my pocket. I don't know how you knew. I also have a gold coin, but the silver one is probably my better play. If I were a bright young man, I would be buying sugar now and silver, given the state of the world. That's not a recommendation, but I am just saying I do own some silver. Silver is cheaper than many things on a historic basis and I do own some silver. The dollar has fallen almost 10% since the beginning of the stocks rally in March. Commodities have risen 94% of the time that the dollar has fallen. A very strong correlation. Do we expect the dollar decline and the commodity run-up, therefore, to continue? It's not always a strong correlation. You are right; there has been (a correlation) in recent months, recent years even. But no, there are many times when the dollar and commodities go entirely separate ways. So, don't get it into your head, and I know many times that the press do have it in their head that commodities and dollars go opposite ways. I am not terribly bullish on the dollar in long term. US dollars are a terribly flawed currency and down the road I hope I don't own any US dollars. I still own some of them at the moment, but it's not getting better for the US. The dollar any way is getting worse. The fundamental for commodities continue to improve. The fundamentals for the US dollar do not continue to improve. They are deteriorating.

Are you still sticking to your prediction of a currency crisis sometime in a year or two?

Yes. The world is full of currency imbalances and economic trade imbalances would have to be resolved or corrected, one way or the other. Unfortunately, given the state of politicians and it's not just the current state of politicians, but politicians throughout history have usually got things wrong. So, we are going to have some problems in the currency market. I don't know when. May be not. I may be wrong. But having seen that sort of thing before in history somebody would have to pay the price whether it's the pound sterling or the US dollar or the rupee, I have no clue. No idea where it’s going to stop, but we are going to have problems in the currency markets.

What’s your view on global equities now? Do you think emerging markets’ premium

over developed country markets has gone a way too
high?

I don't pay any attention to things like emerging markets premium. You talk about it on TV, but every market is different. Why can't I just go out and buy emerging markets when it is likely to go broke. Every market is different, every country is different, every economy is different and every sector of the economies is different. Just because you are in an emerging country does not mean you are going to make money if you get the wrong sector. I have not bought any stocks anywhere in the world in the last couple of years except China. I did buy some Chinese shares back in October-November. I have not been buying anything other than that for some time. I have been worried about the world economy, about the world stock markets. If you got to be somewhere and if there is going to be a recovery, it will show up in commodities best of all, and if there is not going to be any recovery, commodities are still a better place to be.

So what are you buying nowadays?

If you want to put in your money somewhere, put it in commodities. That's the only thing I bought recently. I have bought some yen and swiss francs. If you know enough about currencies to figure out who is going to benefit, if I am right about the currency turmoil coming, then you can buy some of the currencies and if you think that the rupee is the place to be, then you can buy some rupees.

Long-term inflation expectations in the US as reflected by the five-year forward breaking rates on treasury inflation protected securities. Those have hardened considerably since the beginning of the year. That's also your view, right? Too much money in the financial systems and monetary authorities the world over don't have a credible plan to withdraw liquidity?

I cannot conceive of lending money to the US government for 30 years in US dollars for 3, 4, 5 or 6% interest. It's just inconceivable to me that I would let them have my money for 30 years and they would pay me back someday in US dollars at such a low rate of interest. I expect problems in the bond market. I don't know when. I am not sure about the bond market. I was short in the bond market, but I got out. I expect to see serious problems in the bond market down the road.

In the near term, markets seem to be more concerned about growth than they are about inflation. The difference between the 10-year and the two-year bond yield in the US has narrowed some 40 basis points since early June. Unlike you Jim, people are actually going out and buying long maturity treasuries because they don't see growth, don't see inflation. So, what do say to these bond buyers? Good luck?

When you see anomalies like this in the market, you are supposed to take advantage . The spread is very low. So, why would anybody buy a 10-year when he can buy a two-year ? Not worth the extra risk to go out 10 years. I would urge people to keep their wits. Now, granted Mr Bernanke and the US are buying a lot of government paper and driving the price up. That's why I am not sure. He has got more buying power than I do, at least for the foreseeable future. So, you are seeing longer bonds going up. That gives you an opportunity to get out if you own them or think about selling them short if you don't own them and know how to sell short.

RAPIDFIRE ROUND

Ben Bernanke: Hero or villian?

He's an idiot. ( Watch )

US stocks: Buy now or stay away?

I'm not buying them.

US banking stocks: Short them or stay away?

I'm doing neither. I am watching. They're down a whole lot.

US bonds: Short them or stay away?

I'm doing neither right now. My next move will probably be to sell them short.

In Asia: Sri Lankan stocks or Indian equities?

I'd rather buy Sri Lanka than India.

Chinese stocks or Indian stocks?

I'm not buying either at the moment. I don't own any Indian stocks. I own Chinese shares which I am not selling. The Indian... I wouldn't buy either.

Gold or silver?

I'd rather buy silver today. I own both and I'm not selling either.

[traderabc] 15/7/2009 13:20

Monday, July 13, 2009
Jim Rogers Buy Sugar and Silver


Jim Rogers : Ben Bernanke is an idiot
Jim Rogers did today 14 july an interview with the Indian magazine The Economic Times ET Now ;
he said "I have a silver coin in my pocket... I also have a gold coin, but the silver one is probably my better play. If I were a bright young man, I would be buying sugar and silver, given the state of the world. That’s not a recommendation, but I am just saying I do own some silver. Silver is cheaper than many things on a historic basis." and he also called Ben Bernanke an Idiothe also talked about the falling dollar and the currency crisis ...



Commodities are sizzling, says Jim Rogers

[traderabc] 15/7/2009 13:16

Dutch, the $ is still the world's reserve currency, however the times are changing, the question is whether it will still be the world's reserve currency in 10 or 20 years time. I think not. Time will prove it one way or the other.

[dutch alert] 12/7/2009 23:36

after all the dollar silliness I found the comment on the US dollar in the Lex Column yesterday refressing and down to earth.
Fact - "during the first quarter of this year, foreign dollar claims increased by 2 percentage points to almost two-thirds of total allocated reserves, according to International Monetary Fund data."

[traderabc] 12/7/2009 12:31

Financial Sense Multimedia
Reality Check
July 7, 2009

This time on Reality Check, Richard Loomis and Jim Puplava discuss oil price volatility as a result of unwavering demand due to the needs of transportation and emerging markets.

[dutch alert] 12/7/2009 12:28

read this article its makes clear China's banking system still is a
part of the party.
China always criticed the western financial system - so as real
communists they see their chance. I am sure they shoot in their
own feet. I think Rogers needs to short China's banks too.

[traderabc] 12/7/2009 12:01

China criticises dollar
Dai Bingguo, who is standing in for the Chinese president Hu Jintao at the G8 meetings, raised questions over the dominant role of the dollar as the world's reserve currency.


By Malcolm Moore in Shanghai
Published: 8:01AM BST 10 Jul 2009

The discussion, which took place between the leaders of five emerging economies and the G8 industrialised nations, including Barack Obama, caused concern among western leaders.

"We should have a better system for reserve currency issuance and regulation, so that we can maintain relative stability of major reserve currencies exchange rates and promote a diversified and rational international reserve currency system,” said Mr Dai, according to the Chinese foreign ministry.

Related Articles
Gordon Brown warns China over trying to usurp the dollar
G8 summit in Italy: live blog day two
Chinese officials call for end to dollar's global dominance
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev pulls new world currency from his pocket
China may seek to diversify reserves, World Bank President Robert Zoellick says

While he did not single out the dollar, Mr Dai was clearly calling for the world to diversify its reserve currency system and stabilise exchange rates among leading currencies.

China has made a series of attacks on the dollar in recent months, and went as far as to question Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state, about the trustworthiness of the currency on her visit to China earlier this year.

[smelgy] 12/7/2009 03:27

..........and also check out VGM (Vatakoula Gold) which will be at least a 20 bagger in 2 years.

[wheelds] 12/7/2009 01:07

Check out PXS and in a couple of years your now healthy heart will be able to take the thrills of speeding along in your new luxury silver car. IMHO

[dutch alert] 12/7/2009 00:37

Ill be d... They have only very "competent bankers in China"
Credit have surged in the first quater of this year.
In China they have also listen very good to Bernanke and
create money from heaven. Consumerspending heavely
subsediced to help the producers of consumer goods.
Also good to know that the inhabitant of the slumps
last month were able to buy their first car and probably
are able to realise an indoor swimmingpool in their
thirty squarfeet home.
I think we need this kind of communist state in Europe.

[traderabc] 11/7/2009 21:35

Buffett: 'We Need More Taxes'
'Billionaire-next-door' again calls for taxing the wealthy on 'Good Morning America.'

By Sarah Knoploh
Business & Media Institute
7/10/2009 6:24:39 PM

[traderabc] 11/7/2009 21:18

'incompetent bankers'

Nah, there is more to it then just that, those greedy banksters were just playing their roles in support to the on going NWO agenda. The interest rates set far too low for years and the bail out of crooks has brought us here. Both a direct responsibility of the Fed.

Just watch the FED try to defeat the audit demanded by Congress, they will resort to anything to avoid that audit. Just that tells you all you need to know about the FED. Watch 'democracy' fail, soon as far as honest money is concerned.
But that won't be the last of it.
This issue won't go away, when the $ starts to collapse, they are going to be in the spotlight again.

[edmondj] 11/7/2009 20:52

Perhaps Jim will tell greedy incompetent bankers to stand on the naughty stool.

[traderabc] 11/7/2009 20:30

Jim Rogers How to raise your kids in a modern society (3 mins)

[traderabc] 11/7/2009 19:54

July 11, 2009
Extremely Bullish Scenario For Commodities
"According to such renowned market experts as author and investing icon Jim Rogers, a number of “wild cards” are in place this time around, meaning this bull market in commodities may have a lot more room to run than its more-typical predecessors. Three factors in particular are extremely bullish for commodities investors:

[traderabc] 10/7/2009 13:27

"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident."
Arthur SchopenhauerGerman philosopher (1788 - 1860)

A good interview.

" If people ridicule your ideas you are either a total nut or a genius, you just have to figure out which one"



Friday, July 10, 2009
Jim Rogers I do not Buy US Treasury Bonds

Great opportunities on currencies and commodities says Jim Rogers
Legendary investor he king of wall street Jim Rogers was interviewed today by King World News directly from his home in Singapore.

[traderabc] 09/7/2009 21:36

Benson's Economic & Market Trends
Hard Times

Richard Benson
Jul 9, 2009

Our measure of how bad it is in this economy for a broad swath of Americans can be analyzed by asking three basic questions: Are people working, are they making any money, and do they have any money in reserves? To answer these questions and more, below are some shocking facts!

[traderabc] 08/7/2009 16:41

I'm inclined to agree with him, silver is a buy at these levels. A few $ downside risk, for several several up.



'The USA has enough gold for 1,000 years of future defense needs, and not one day’s worth of silver. There is no extra silver left in the world.'


Ted Butler Commentary
July 7, 2009


This May Be The Last Time

What is this “last time” I refer to? I think we are approaching the final stages of the great silver manipulation. While I can’t give you a date, I’d like to review the reasons why I think that‘s the case. If I’m correct, it means that the days of depressed silver prices will soon be over. It means the price will, at a minimum, reach the true free market price, which is much higher.



---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sell Gold, Then Buy It
Many of the World's Great Investors Are Doing Exactly That

Ian Mathias
Provided as a courtesy of Agora Financial
Jul 8, 2009

From a technical standpoint, gold looks set for some short-term pain. Just like stocks, the gold chart is taking a page from 2008. Check it out:

[traderabc] 08/7/2009 15:56

Hyperinflation or deflation?

Puru Saxena
Posted Jul 8, 2009

At present, the investment community is divided as to whether the world economy faces hyperinflation or deflation. Some observers are convinced that the central banks’ printing press will take the world towards hyperinflation whereas others believe that the ongoing contraction in American private-sector debt will result in outright deflation. So, what will the future bring?

It is my contention that we will get neither hyperinflation nor deflation.