Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[traderabc] 11/8/2009 14:34

AGRI-FOOD THOUGHTS
by Ned W. Schmidt, CFA, CEBS
Schmidt Management Company
August 10, 2009

Sometime people do learn from history, though the number that intentionally do so are few. Perhaps one of the largest groups of people that seem to lack the ability to learn from history is composed of economists. The facts that they choose to intentionally ignore are near mind boggling. Two asset bubbles, technology and housing, were claimed to be non existent, until they collapsed. Now, that same group of myopic number crunchers believes that economic growth in Western economies is about to reignite. Is some skepticism appropriate?

[traderabc] 11/8/2009 14:21

He was telling us to buy sugar and silver some time ago.


"Sugar Is Going Much Higher"
“Sugar is certainly going to go much, much higher during the course of the bull market. Sugar is still 70 percent below its all-time high and not many things in life are 70 percent below what they were in 1974. Sugar has a wonderful future.” Jim Rogers, Bloomberg, August

[traderabc] 10/8/2009 12:52

In addition to being a laugh this guy is not pushing the consensus view either, he may well be right, and we will know soon enough if that is the case.

Max Keiser on France24 - August 7, 2009

[traderabc] 10/8/2009 08:23

UK assesses future food security
By Mark Kinver
Science and environment reporter, BBC News



Population growth means the world needs more food from fewer inputs


The government is consulting on how it can ensure that the UK's food supply remains secure in the future.

While the current situation in the UK is good, ministers warn that factors such as climate change and population growth could have an adverse effect.

Producers, supermarkets and consumers are being encouraged to submit their ideas on how a secure food system in the UK should look in 2030.

[traderabc] 08/8/2009 12:24

"Experts" Never Learn

Peter Schiff
Aug 8, 2009

There is an inexplicable, but somehow widely held, belief that stock market movements are predictive of economic conditions. As such, the current rally in U.S. stock prices has caused many people to conclude that the recession is nearing an end. The widespread optimism is not confined to Wall Street, as even Barack Obama has pointed to the bubbly markets to vindicate his economic policies. However, reality is clearly at odds with these optimistic assumptions.

In the first place, stock markets have been taken by surprise throughout history. In the current cycle, neither the market nor its cheerleaders saw this recession coming, so why should anyone believe that these fonts of wisdom have suddenly become clairvoyant?

[traderabc] 08/8/2009 12:09

Perhaps, try here under contact us.

[049balt] 08/8/2009 11:50

Is it possible to email Rogers direct?

[traderabc] 08/8/2009 11:48

Jim Rogers on the China Bubble

[traderabc] 08/8/2009 11:46

"Yes it was, but as he himself admits he's a terrible market timer, so what?"

CR, In my haste I didn't qualify that statement, he himself admits he's a poor SHORT TERM market timer, he is almost always correct with gauging the longer term direction of the markets.

The point I'm trying to make is that once he has taken the position, he's in for the long haul, (unless the fundamentals change) this is where many multiples of the initial sum can be made with patience. Buffet does the same. Jesse Livermore also had a similar philosophy ie 'The big money was made in the waiting'.

Think of the value of your house, it may take years but in the end averaging 10% or 20% a year, with the the amazing effects of compounding, huge sums of money can be made with the passage of time. Golds performance over the last several years is a perfect example of this process.

"you have to sell the highs to maximise your profits"

Agreed, however with powerful long term primary trends the true 'highs' can take many years to manifest, we are seeing this happen with commodities presently, the pullback lows are rising, the highs trending upward, we are probably still several years away from the ultimate top in this sector.
I'd be very surprised if Rogers doesn't see it through right till the end. That's his real skill and the reason he has been so successful in the past. Latching onto, and then increasing his position into a massive long term primary trend for the duration is a proven concept for the patient. This is true 'investing', and not as risky as shorter term speculation.

[nabcom] 08/8/2009 09:25

He was loading up China and commodities last Nov having shorted Fannie and Freddie whose coming problems he had been going on about since 2007, wish I had that sort of bad timing

[cockneyrebel] 07/8/2009 17:58

traderabc:

"CR,
Yes it was, but as he himself admits he's a terrible market timer, so what?"

So what? The whole point of investing is timing - buying at the top and selling at the bottom isn't good timing and you don't make money that way.

Most shares are both buys and sells - what matters is the timing of it!

To say he's always buying more gold because it's going up and buying more coppers is nonsense - you have to sell the highs to maximise your profits and to have more cash to buy elsewhere on lows.

Anyway, he makes good entertainment value but I can't take him seriously even if he does wear a bow tie :-)

CR

[049balt] 07/8/2009 17:11

the Irish Farmers journal has some inetresting articles this week which indicate that we have hit the bottom in both beef and milk, and points to the looming shortages of beef.

[traderabc] 07/8/2009 14:43

'Have we reached the bottom of the Agri. commodities market?'

Balt, All I can go on are historical graphs to answer that question. For what it's worth I think we hit the bottom (with softs)in December, then another (higher) low in March and then another higher low just a some weeks ago in July. In my view this is all positive, we are in an upward trend, trading the range, there is no proper resistance till we get to around 8, which could happen within 6-8 months. That said if there is some crisis with bad weather or storms wreaking harvests the price could go to 12 in weeks.

SOYBEANS-CORN-WHEAT-COFFEE-SUGAR-COTTON etf



Obviously this graph doesn't reflect the other agricultural commodities, like meat or milk which I suspect you are referring to. If you want I'll check out some more graphs and comment on specific ones, let me know which ones you want. Ideally find me some two or three year graphs reflecting European prices as all I can find are US $ denominated graphs.

[traderabc] 07/8/2009 13:13

This comes from some blog, but that doesn't mean it's not true, beware of September, traditionally a month that can devastate stocks. Seasonality, though not talked about a lot is VERY relevant if you want to make and not lose money in stocks.


The Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think

The Coming Economic Depression
Monday, August 3, 2009



Back in the Great Depression of 1929 through the 1930’s, we saw a similar Zig-zag pattern. There was a crash in 1929, followed by a nice rally, but then the most devastating part of the market collapse followed into the 1930’s. That Bear Market was a Supercycle degree wave (IV). The current Bear Market is one degree larger, which means it should be worse. There is great risk to the status quo political structure of governments internationally should this Bear Market follow the Zig-zag pattern. That is why gold is an attractive component investment for diversified conservative portfolios, as it has been considered a monetary equivalent throughout the ages, surviving the rise and fall of fiat currencies of nation state powers.

[049balt] 07/8/2009 13:11

Have we reached the bottom of the Agri. commodities market?

[traderabc] 07/8/2009 13:08

This guy knows the score.


An Important Political Message From Peter Schiff

By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.


Posted Thursday, 16 July 2009


Dear Friend,

As you may know, I am seriously considering seeking the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Connecticut, and I’ve launched www.SchiffForSenate.com to help me gauge support for my candidacy.

As one of the few economists with a record of successfully forecasting the recession, I can say with certainty that unless we return to true free-market principles, our economy will not rebound. Our families will continue to suffer. Unemployment and inflation will continue to rise. Our debt and deficits will continue to grow.

[traderabc] 07/8/2009 12:26

Confidence Games and Ponzi Schemes
by Tim Iacono | August 6, 2009



After hearing a lot of talk in recent days about hopeful signs for the U.S. economy and how it is vital that consumers regain their confidence in order for a recovery to truly take hold, it struck me once again that the U.S. economy, more so than most other economies around the world, is really just a "confidence game".

[fox tail] 02/8/2009 09:09

this is a great thread.

[traderabc] 01/8/2009 12:02

Happy Days Aren't Here Again

Peter Schiff
Aug 1, 2009

Have you heard the great news? The recession is over! It's true; I saw it on TV. Why fret about growing unemployment lines when banks are paying big-time bonuses again?

Proof of the turn was apparently revealed by the 2nd quarter GDP figures that showed that the economy declined by only 1%. After four consecutive quarters of negative GDP, the green shoots now assume that growth will resume over the summer. But before we pop the corks, it may be worthwhile to ask, "what really has changed, and what is responsible for our new lease on life?"