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[traderabc] 21/5/2009 16:46

Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Next Financial Meltdown will be in the Currency markets: Jim Rogers

The next financial meltdown will be in the currency markets, as central banks around the world have been printing money as if there is no tomorrow, giving the appearance of massive government intervention to weaken their currencies, legendary investor Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, told CNBC Wednesday.
"At the moment I have virtually no hedges, I suspect it is going to be the next problem, big crisis will be in the currency markets, I'm trying to figure out what to do there," Rogers told "Squawk Box Asia".
Rogers has bought the yen because he expects the Japanese currency to withstand future problems, but he does not have short positions in any currency and is currently not buying the yen any more.
"I'm certainly not short in the dollar - not at the moment, although it may be the peak. We may have come to the peak," he said. "I don't plan to own the yen forever, because you know the Japanese, Japan has some huge problems down the road."
For the moment currencies may look safer than anything else in the markets, as stocks may face a new bottom since they were artificially lifted by the amount of money created by central banks, but there are pitfalls ahead, he said.

"If I am right, you're going to see a lot of currency problems in the next decade or two," Rogers said.

"Governments around the world are doing their best to destroy currencies, many currencies in fact. And people need to understand that; if they don't understand it now, they're going to find out, they're going to find out the hard way," he added.
source with some modifications

[traderabc] 20/5/2009 16:54

Latest Interview on CNBC





Oath Keepers Orders We Will NOT Obey Full Length Video

[traderabc] 19/5/2009 12:58

THE FOOD POLICE Stop HR 875 and S 425




GOOD NEWS! HR 875 failed in Congress.

[dutch alert] 19/5/2009 12:45

No - they are not learning
this kind of rethoric is a patent of fox
they stick their head into the sand
and sh.. the world with their never
changing discontend only the target
is changing.
I have never ever heard a solid
plan how to do the trick.
Facts? They hardly use facts.
They use propaganda like it is used
by sekts only this is a financial sect
or a republican sect who tried to
let us forget that they are the one who
broad us in it.

[traderabc] 19/5/2009 11:22

We are going to see a lot more of this kind of thing, that will ultimatly destroy the $ and impoverish the USA.. Ask yourselves will the US bomb China and Brazil for doing this? I think not.


Tuesday, May 19, 2009
China and Brazil Plan to Dump The Dollar


Jonathan Wheatley
Financial Times
May 19, 2009
Brazil and China will work towards using their own currencies in trade transactions rather than the US dollar, according to Brazil’s central bank and aides to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president.
The move follows recent Chinese challenges to the status of the dollar as the world’s leading international currency.

Mr Lula da Silva, who is visiting Beijing this week, and Hu Jintao, China’s president, first discussed the idea of replacing the dollar with the renminbi and the real as trade currencies when they met at the G20 summit in London last month.

An official at Brazil’s central bank stressed that talks were at an early stage. He also said that what was under discussion was not a currency swap of the kind China recently agreed with Argentina and which the US had agreed with several countries, including Brazil.

Read entire article

[traderabc] 19/5/2009 11:08

'End the fed', they are learning...

The TRUTH Behind the Total Collapse of the U.S. Economy

[traderabc] 18/5/2009 23:56

Jim Rogers on the Lew Rockwell pt 1/2 17 may 2009



part 2

[traderabc] 18/5/2009 21:31

Memories

Richard Russell
Dow Theory Letters snippet
May 18, 2009

May 15, 2009 - It's early in the year 1955. I'm walking down Broadway. It's snowing, and I'm looking for a warm shelter. I've developed a habit of stopping in at Merrill Lynch on B'way at 46th Street. The Merrill boardroom will do; it's warm and crowded with old guys, a lot of them veterans of the Great Depression and 1929 crash. I'm growing increasingly fascinated with the stock market. Volume creeps lazily by on the tape at around 3-4 million shares a day.

[z1gzag] 17/5/2009 20:39

Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.

[dutch alert] 17/5/2009 15:44

Trader I think you need to look at the facts.
If you call the US bankrupt and you say they
cannot play anymore a significant part in the international
trade. It is fair to ask from you to use the same standards
on the rest of the international community.
So if US debt props to 85% of GDP and you calls them bankrupt
How do you call UK with about the same debt. Italy and Belgium
with 110% and Japan with over 150%.
Plus for Japan it is mainly (90%) internal debt. Japanees need
to save for their pensions and the government is willing to
spend it. Negative for Japan besides their own debt they are
holding 20% of the debts of the US a socalled double whammy.

It is withfullthinking to believe China is able to replace
over 20% of the worldmarket if the US is not anymore with us.
You forget all other countries will have the same loss and
also need to find other markets.

It is withfullthinking to believe China and all the others
will survive when the US collaps. If the US collaps they
will take the rest with it.

[traderabc] 17/5/2009 12:03

Lookout - Capitalism's dead - US going Bankrupt and War coming
Written by Marc Faber - GloomBoomDoom.com and The Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire | Friday, 15 May 2009 07:47

"While not an optimist on the Chinese economy near term – Marc Faber likes Asian currencies, and banks ex-Japan."


From The Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire today:

"China's first-quarter economic data, which showed 6.1% year-on-year GDP growth and a significant acceleration in quarter-on-quarter expansion, triggered a flood of reports suggesting that a sharp V-shaped recovery is under way. With the release of April's more mixed data, however, the celebratory champagne that was being poured has gone a bit flat. It's now clear that the economy still faces huge challenges, and in the second half of the year the acceleration in growth is likely to be gradual rather than explosive. The Economist Intelligence Unit continues to hold to its below-consensus forecasts of 6.5% GDP growth in 2009 and 7.3% in 2010."

but......

Marc Faber on Armageddon

A vintage performance from the author of "The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report". This morning – living up to his reputation for bearishness - Marc Faber forecast a litany of unpleasant events ahead.

[traderabc] 17/5/2009 11:58

Who, Me? Yes, You!

Peter Schiff
May 16, 2009

When, during the invasion of Iraq, the United States Government issued its famous deck of playing cards with the 52 arch villains of the Iraqi police state, Saddam Hussein's face adorned the Ace of Spades. If the Obama Administration wanted to engage in a similar public relations campaign for the real estate crisis, the top card should be reserved for Alan Greenspan.

Yet in a speech last Tuesday before the National Association of Realtors, 'Sir' Alan "the-bubble-blower" claimed that his low interest rate policies in the early and middle years of this decade had no effect on mortgage rates or real estate prices. As a result, he claims no responsibility for the subprime mortgage crisis

[traderabc] 17/5/2009 11:57

"The Worst Is Yet to Come": If You're Not Petrified, You're Not Paying Attention

[traderabc] 17/5/2009 11:07

'Again if the US comes really in trouble, the problems for the rest of the world will be far worst. Very big advantage for the US: their debts are in US$.'


Dutch, I do understand where you are coming from with this debate, the only way the US (which is bankrupt) can pay off it's debts is with a close to worthless $.
The Fed know this and are creating money like there is no tomorrow, hence their $ is going to fall very dramatically. Many nation states are already be angered by this obvious ongoing $ fraud, these nations will cut out the $ from their trade, they will demand payment in something other than the $. When/if this happens, there will be nothing that can save the US from it's financial fate. I believe this process has already begun, and will only accelerate.

China will find new markets for it's goods, it will also increase it's trade 'locally'. Sure with the US declining, China will have problems within it's export driven sectors, but I don't see them failing to make up that shortfall elsewhere, they have the entire world to trade with, who can compete with them? Barely a handful of countries.
Remember when 10 million Chinese suddenly lose their jobs, it is not like the west where the state has to come in and support them with unemployment payments. The cost to the state is fairly minimal, and they are not particularly weakened, the workers either go back to their villages and towns to face poverty, or find work elsewhere, within sectors of the economy that are still growing. In the west the state goes into further debt to pay for it's unemployed.

I hear about the 20 years of tiny growth in Japan, people make out it's a big deal, perhaps for stock or retail investors it still is, but generally the Japanese are doing fine, they enjoy a high standard of living, they save and they prosper.
China, are the new Capitalists, if they get hit hard, I dread to think how it will be for economies like the UK and US.

[traderabc] 17/5/2009 10:37

Investors Get the Gold Bug

[dutch alert] 16/5/2009 21:49

'Give me the facts why I should believe China would be the next world power.'

Huge sustained growth and little debt, if they can keep it going, it's only a matter of time.

I doubt they can keep it going. Some facts: US consumerspending counts for two/third of GDP. In China one/third. If US consumers go on strike it is real bad news for China. There is no way they are able to sell it at home. And the rest of the world could they help? No way outsite US the consumers are also on strike. Or other asian countries? They all are export oriented. Investment in infrastructure? Good for the building companies but when the job is done I think they will have the same results Japan had in the nineties beautifull bridges to islands where nobody lives and roads without destinations. The problem local party officials are responsible for local projects.

Again if the US comes realy in trouble, the problems for the rest of the world will be far worst. Very big advantage for the US: their debts are in US$.

[traderabc] 14/5/2009 13:27

Economic forecasting
Investor 500: If you go into the market today

Get four of the world's gloomiest forecasters in one room and you soon realize: these aren't teddy bears, and this ain't no picnic.

By Jeff Sanford
Jeff Sanford has worked as a business journalist since graduating from Ryerson University in 1999. He has held staff positions at National Post Business magazine and Investment Executive,


It was a flashy, high-wattage affair that took the trend of economic-news-as-entertainment to a remarkable new level. On a rainy Tuesday evening in early April, 1,500 clearly wealthy clients of Sprott Asset Management filled the ornate Elgin Theatre in downtown Toronto to hear an A-team of economic doomsayers muse about how this recession is going to get much worse yet. The group included a celebriconomist known for his erotic wall art, a formerly obscure Wall Street analyst married to a professional wrestler, and an ex-platoon-commander-turned-financial-historian who divines the cycles of life through market movements.

[i_hopi] 13/5/2009 23:52

Barren Wuffet, Dim Rogers, Barack Obama.

Guess which one called the stock market right, at the end of March 2009.

[traderabc] 13/5/2009 21:42

'but also he was caught out when a near systematic collapse drove also the commodities down.'


I agree with you entirely, he was wrong about how far they would fall, however he was short the financials so he didn't get hurt that badly.


'Your name gives me the impression you are, or tried to be, a trader. I find it strange you as a trader are backing a guy who says he is a bad markettimer.'


You are correct, I tried to be a short term trader and failed, I learned an expensive lesson from that. Now I'm a medium term 'primary trend investor', which suits me well. I still buy and sell stocks on a mid term term 'seasonal' cycle, but short term/day trading is not something that interests me anymore. Mugs game imo.

The reason I like Rogers is because he too is a medium/long term primary trend investor.I think it is the best way to make money, you take a position, have a (mental) stop-loss/, and try to run the position for the length of the primary trend. (years) I believe this is the way to make proper money with safety and relative ease.


'I see no drastic action to leave a better world for our children.'

Agreed, the world is going to hell, and few care much about it. The main responsibility for that rests on the western 'corporation' cultures who have created an unsustainable and wasteful model, the tragedy is that the developing countries are emulating it.

The good news for us investors is that the world cannot continue to provide the essential commodities for this model, so the prices of commodities must either go up a lot or the model must change.


'Give me the facts why I should believe China would be the next world power.'

Huge sustained growth and little debt, if they can keep it going, it's only a matter of time.

[smelgy] 12/5/2009 14:57

.............Jim Rogers is currently bearish of equities and says the latest rally has gone way too far. I agree, suckers rally in my opinion and the FTSE going back down to the 4,000 level within the next 5-6 weeks.