Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[traderabc] 12/5/2009 14:54

Now that's how to sort out those burning issues

NEVER TRUST A FIRE DRILL IN SINGAPORE ...



THIS IS TRUE AND TOOK PLACE IN SINGAPORE

A fire alarm, in a large office building, rang at 4 p.m. when almost all
of the company's 500 employees were at work.
As usual in such circumtances the entire office was evacuated within 3
mins & every employee gathered outside.

Nothing happened for ten minutes or so and there was no evidence of a
fire. Then the firms Security Officer made an announcement ...

"Dear employees, with melting heart I am making this announcement that for
many of you will be your last fire evacuation drill. Due to the recession
the company are laying off almost fifty percent of staff. When you move
back into the building some of you will discover that your swipe passcard
will no longer give you access to the office. If you are among those laid
off, go home and all your belongings will be couriered to you tomorrow.
The management took this approach to save on overloading the email system
with layoff notifications and goodbye messages and also to avoid any
violent outbursts inside the office... Hope you have a nice career ahead
... please move forward and try your swipe card."

[traderabc] 12/5/2009 10:36

May 12, 2009
Latest Interview on CNBC

[montyhedge] 12/5/2009 10:35

Whats this plonker been saying now, never calls it right, talks his own book on tv.

[traderabc] 12/5/2009 10:34

we gonna have serious food shortages in few years Jim Rogers 1/3

Part 1


Part 2


Part 3 ( 'I'd rather own silver then gold' )

[i_hopi] 12/5/2009 07:55

On Bloomberg TV today. Dim Rogers interviewed in a program called Dollar Watch.

[dutch alert] 12/5/2009 00:23

Trader - Jim Rogers in my opinion is also biased. I believe everyone is biased because we all have only a part of the picture. He has a very high standard of analyse on commodities. He made a lot of money on it and were right in the seventies/eighties and the same some years ago. But because he was right on parts on the economy he thinks his opinion on the whole are of mistical proportions. He was right on the analyse of commodities as a assetclass but also he was catched when a nearly systemcollaps drove also the commodities down. His biblical proportions made me think on the figure of Jonas who sit on a mountain waiting on the moment a town would be destroyed and was very irritated when it not happened.

Also his leave to find a better place elswhere is nothing new. The US is build on people who leave there homeland and found a new future in the US. If all the dutchman would have been stayed in holland we probably would not have the space to give them all a place in our small country.

Your name give me the impression you are, or tried to be, a trader. I find it strange you as a trader are backing a guy who says he is a bad markettimer. I was always told, "as a trader - being right to early is the same as being wrong".
I think Rogers is also a victom of the enormous lot of information there is. If you believe in something, there are daily items in the news what tend to support your opinion and after more and more supporting news you become too confident.
Like the ones who thought the Nasdaq was going to blow to the 10.000.

Having children does not make most of us aware of the position of the children in poor conditions. I think we look away or tries on micro to create the conditions who are supporting for the education of our children. Also we tend to live for our own good. I see no drastical action to leave a better world for our children.

I stay with my comment on currencies. I think it is always possible to find some who have done better but they are not the one who matter.
I stay also with my comment on where the power would be. Give me the facts why I should believe China would be the next worldpower.

[whowantstobeamillionaire] 10/5/2009 12:07

al, ur worth in the end = ?

bear no doubt :-


ha ha ha LOL LOL LOL LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL


pmsl


i give you a clue '9 people email etc etc etc' - just a prediction that MAY come to light.... gut feeling is that's your fate.... in a way sorry to share that with you but as u know I haz a habbit of speaking the truth :)

[traderabc] 10/5/2009 12:05

Ha Ha, so I can't spell, and you caught me! Medal coming your way.......






...not.

[jazza] 10/5/2009 12:01

"lesser fair capitalism"

Never heard of that one traderabc.


For the sake of someone as ignorant of economics as I, could you explain, in layman's terms, the difference between the above and traditional "laissez-faire capitalism"

Thanks in advance.

J.

:-)

[traderabc] 10/5/2009 11:56

'First do you mean Jim Rogers is not biased.'

Dutch,he doesn't appear to be biased, if you take what he says about wealth at face value, he is being honest. He wanted to get rich to 'buy his freedom'.
He got rich and therefore became 'free' , what did he then do? He traveled round the world twice, ie followed his own agenda at no profit. He behaved like someone who had become free. The same with writing books, it usually isn't about making money, it is usually a passion for the subject.

Latter he spoke out against the corruption of the system that made him rich, he moved his family away from his home country (the source of the corruption), do not underestimate the significance of that. The guy is following through with his beliefs.

Having children often makes people far more concerned about the type of world they will leave for their children, they often become willing to speak out against what they perceive as wrong, they are willing to vote with their feet and move away from perceived dangers.
This is what I see with Rogers.

His support of Ron Paul is further proof that he actually cares about what is going on in the world, and more importantly is willing to speak out, and tell it as it is.
Lastly I have met this guy face to face, he came across as genuine, honest and 'real'. I have met quite a few other men in similar financial fields, they often come across as arrogant, disingenuous, and narrow minded in comparison to Rogers. So, no I don't think he is particularly biased with his claims, I believe that he believes in what he is saying 100%. He has the kind of passion that a liar cannot emulate.


'the currencies you mentioned give any proof for your claim that the dollar is finished'



I don't really understand your long term graph, is it saying that the other currencies have fallen even worse then the $ in the 70 year time frame?

The currencies I mentioned are all strong against the US $ presently, even with this recent $ rally. No it isn't the 'end' of the $ but it probably is the beginning of the 'end' of the $. No paper currency has ever withstood the test of time, generally they last for a few hundred years and then become worthless.

The only thing keeping the $ from total collapse is the fact that the world is buying it's commodities in the $. Many countries are unhappy about this scenario, some are abandoning the $, if this trend continues then the $ is toast. Militarily the US may find it cannot 'force' other countries to continue trading in $, the flow of money can be more powerful than standing armies, as the USSR found out the hard way.


"the world's economy is in a fundamental change"

There is evidence for that claim, some things never change, fear ,greed, poverty,stupidity, etc, however some things change dramatically, the fall of communism caught many off guard, the fall of laissez-faire capitalism could be similar.ie something FORCED upon the participants, by market forces. They are not usually given any 'choice' in the matter.

[dutch alert] 09/5/2009 22:50

Trader I have to disagree with you. First do you mean Jim Rogers is not biased. He put his money where his mouth is. If he is wrong it could be painfull for him. So he makes the best of it. It is also in his interest to paint the picture as dark as possible. Do not get me wrong. Maybe it is possible to make a lot of money on China but more in the way it is done in Singapore. I believe it will never be the worldpower as the US now is. Maybe they succeed to become number one in the cigarette industry if al the chinees are forced to smoke. (haha)

For your point on the currencies I refer to the link in my previous post. I do not think the currencies you mentioned give any proof for your claim that the dollar is finnished. You have to come with figures and not with feelings.

If someone says "the world's economy is in a fundamental change" you have to be very carefull. We have heard this many times and mostly painfull experienced old rules still plays the game.

[traderabc] 09/5/2009 17:38

Friday, May 8, 2009
The Annihiliation Of The Dollar's Purchasing Power
Posted by Tyler Durden at 11:35 AM
This is the chart they don't want you to see: the purchasing power of the dollar over the past 76 years has declined by 94%. And based on current monetary and fiscal policy, we have at least another 94% to go. The only question is whether this will be achieved in 76 months this time.

[traderabc] 09/5/2009 11:24

Don't Be Fooled by Inflation

Peter Schiff
May 11, 2009

Strike up the band, boys, happy days are here again!

Recently released short-term economic data, including unemployment claims, non-farm payrolls, home sales, and business spending, which had been so unambiguously horrific in February and March, are now just garden-variety awful. With the Wicked Witch of Depression now apparently crushed under the house of Obamanomics, the Munchkins of Wall Street have sounded the all clear, pushing the Dow Jones up 25% from its lows. But the premature conclusion of their Lollipop Guild economists, that the crash of 2008/2009 is now a fading memory, is just as delusional as their failure to see it coming in the first place.

Once again, the facts do not support the euphoria. Over the past few months, the government has literally blasted the economy with trillions of new dollars conjured from the ether. The fact that this "stimulus" has blown some air back into our deflating consumer-based bubble economy, and given a boost to an oversold stock market, is hardly evidence that the problems have been solved. It is simply an illusion, and not a very good one at that. By throwing money at the problem, all the government is creating is inflation. Although this can often look like growth, it is no more capable of creating wealth than a hall of mirrors is capable of creating people.

We are currently suffering from an overdose of past stimulus. A larger dose now will only worsen the condition. The Greenspan/Bush stimulus of 2001 prevented a much needed recession and bought us seven years of artificial growth. The multi-trillion dollar tab for that episode of federally-engineered economic bullet-dodging came due in 2008. The 2001 stimulus had kicked off a debt-fueled consumption binge that resulted in economic weakness, not strength. So now, even though the recent stimulus administered a much larger dose, we will likely experience a much smaller bounce. One can only speculate as to how much time this stimulus will buy and what it will cost when the bill arrives.

My guess is that, at most, the Bernanke/Obama stimulus will buy two years before the hangover sets in. However, since this dose is so massive, the comedown will be equally horrific. My fear is that when the drug wears off, we will reach for that monetary syringe one last time. At that point, the dosage may be lethal, and the economy will die of hyperinflation.

As always, the bulls fail to understand that investors can lose wealth even as nominal stock prices rise. As a corollary, the bearish case is not discredited by rising stock prices. While there are some bears that mistakenly cling to the idea that deflation will cause the dollar to rise, those of us in the inflation camp understand that the opposite will occur.

In the meantime, stocks are not rising because the long-term fundamentals of our economy are improving. If anything, the rise in global stock prices is due to investors realizing that cash is even riskier then stocks. The massive inflation that is the source of the stimulus is essentially punishment for those holding cash. To preserve purchasing power, investors must seek alternative stores of value, such as common stock.

It is important to point out that despite an impressive rally, U.S. stocks have substantially underperformed foreign stocks. In the past two months, while the Dow Jones has risen 30%, the Hang Seng and the German DAX have risen by over 50% in U.S. dollars. Commodity prices are also rising, with oil hitting a five-month high. And gold is shining as well, with the HUI index of gold stocks up 30% during the past two months, and 2/3 of those gains occurring in the past month. If this rally really were about improving economic fundamentals, gold stocks would not be among the leaders. Further, during those two months, the U.S. dollar index fell by 7%, with commodity-sensitive currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars surging 20%.

To me, the relative strength of foreign stocks and currencies indicates that perhaps the global economy is not as impaired as many have feared. It has been my view all along that after the initial shock wears off, the world will be better off - once it no longer subsidizes the American economy. The shrinking U.S. current account deficit is evidence of this trend in action. Renewed strength in foreign stocks and weakness in the dollar may indicate that not only is the world decoupling from the U.S., but benefitting as a result.

So let the Munchkins dance for now.

But remember, the Witch is not dead, only temporarily stunned by an avalanche of fake money.

[traderabc] 08/5/2009 14:24

Stratfor is an independent agency.

Dutch,
If Stratfor uses the same sort of techniques as the CIA to gather information then it is likley Stratfor are comprised of a significant number of ex CIA personnel, especially at the top of the organisation.
I'm sure their work is valid however the future is unknowable, all we can do is make an educated guess. Their guesses are unlikely to admit that the far east will become the dominant force in the world, politically it is unacceptable to say these things, even if they are true.

Which countries do you mean which has gained at the dollar. You mean China?

The Chinese yuan is pegged to the $ so it hasen't changed that much, I was referring to the Swiss Frank, the yen,the Australian $, the New Zealand $, the Vietnamese's Dong, the Singapore $, the Russian rouble, and virtually all the Scandinavian currencies.
For several years the US $ has been slaughtered against a whole basket of world currencies. Even with this recent rally it is still weak, I expect it to get a whole lot weaker in the years ahead.

So nothing has changed.

We are witnessing a fundamental change in the economic structures of the globe, this change will be longterm and gradual. It is happening, the evidence of it can be seen with the prices of commodities priced in $ and markets starting to look for alternatives to the $.

[traderabc] 08/5/2009 13:00

Thursday, May 7, 2009
Jim Rogers Interviewed by The Yemen Times
Investment Guru traveler and author Jim Rogers to Yemen Times:
“If we don’t have people going towards farming and prices are going up, we are not going to have any food at any price”



Your latest book “Crystal Ball” is in Mandarin only! Could you give us a little insight into the book and why you are not publishing it in English?

Well, there was a Chinese journalist who has been doing a huge study of my life it turns out, and she contacted me and said she would like to do a biography and would I agree and would I cooperate, and I said yes. That’s why it’s done in Chinese, I don’t know if it’s going to be in English or not, it’s not my book, she wrote it. It was written by a Chinese journalist for Chinese audience. It may well be in English someday, I am not translating it, I haven’t even read the book so I don’t know what it says. This is a book about me, not by me.

President Barak Obama received further political boost three days ago when the House of Representatives approved a $3.4 trillion budget outline that endorses much of Mr Obama’s agenda. What do you think this gigantic increase will lead to? And who would benefit most from it?

It’s not good for America it’s not good for the world. It’s not going to work, they are spending a lot of money on making projects work rather than building long term competitiveness of America. America does not have that kind of money, they are going to have to borrow it, print it or tax it, none of which will be good for the American economy in the long run or for the world.

So no, this is just making the situation worse rather than better, many of the Asian countries starting to spend money, but many of them have big reserves which they’ve built up for a rainy day, and now it’s rainy so they are starting to spend their reserve, many of them are spending it in wise ways to be good for the long term competitiveness of the nation. America is not.

[traderabc] 08/5/2009 12:57

Mayday and Black Swans

Bob Moriarty
Archives
May 8, 2009

One of the more successful trading theories for the general stock market is to sell in May and go away under the theory that stockbrokers start taking vacation in May and June. I suspect that will be a very profitable move this year.

[traderabc] 08/5/2009 12:15

The Economy Will Not Recover Until The Perpetrators Of Our Crises Are Held Accountable


Washington’s Blog
Friday, May 8, 2009

One of the leading business schools in America - the Wharton School of Business - has written an essay on the psychological causes and solutions to the economic crisis. Wharton points out that restoring trust is the key to recovery, and that trust cannot be restored until wrongdoers are held accountable:

[traderabc] 08/5/2009 12:14

China fears bond crisis as it slams quantitative easing


Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
London Telegraph
Friday, May 8, 2009

China has given its clearest warning to date that emergency monetary stimulus by Western governments risks setting off worldwide inflation and undermining global bond markets.

“A policy mistake made by some major central bank may bring inflation risks to the whole world,” said the People’s Central Bank in its quarterly report.

[traderabc] 07/5/2009 23:14

Some interesting graphs, palm oil, seed and feed prices going up massively.

AGRI-FOOD THOUGHTS
by Ned W. Schmidt, CFA, CEBS
Schmidt Management Company
May 5, 2009

Sufficient time has passed since the joyful bursting of the hedge fund bubble to allow for us to begin to assess what is rising from the ashes, and what will not. We can be fairly confident that what went on before will not be what goes on next. Financial markets rarely repeat the same mistakes immediately. Enough time must pass to allow all to forget the previous transgressions. Technology stocks did not rise again to lead in the last run in the financial markets. Banks and finance companies will not lead in the next. Financial markets will be seeking out new themes. Investors need to dig around, perhaps in the dirt, for those next sets of investment ideas.

[traderabc] 07/5/2009 14:35

Group names 25 lenders responsible for economic meltdown


Raw Story
Thursday, May 7, 2009

US and foreign banks were not unwitting victims of circumstance but deliberately culpable in the financial meltdown that engulfed the United States last year, a campaign group said Wednesday.

The Center for Public Integrity named 25 “subprime̶1; mortgage companies whose risky lending was blamed for the US property market collapse and the subsequent global economic crisis.

Many of the lenders were either controlled by US and European banks, or could not have indulged in their high-risk lending spree without the connivance of banks, the investigative journalism group said in a new study.

[traderabc] 06/5/2009 19:58

Sorry about that bushtukaman, I'll try to pay more attention.


These Problems Are Going To Last
I don’t think we’ve hit rock bottom yet, we will have rallies along the way, and nothing goes straight down every day or every month or every year even, If you go back to the 1930’s there were few rallies along the way, even though things did not get better for a long time.

I don’t know when this problem will end, I am afraid it’s going to last for several years mainly because some governments the US and the UK are making a mistake after mistake after mistake, in the 1930’s many governments made mistakes so we had the great depression and the second world war.

The way they are going now, this is going to last for a long time, they are making the same mistakes the Japanese made in the 1990’s by probing up the zombie companies and zombie banks and you are going to see just like in Japan it didn’t work and this is not going to work either.

Biography Written in Chinese
There is a Chinese journalist who has been doing a huge study of my life it turns out, and she contacted me and said she would like to do a biography and would I agree and would I cooperate, and I said yes.

That’s why it’s done in Chinese, I don’t know if it’s going to be in English or not, it’s not my book, she wrote it. It was written by a Chinese journalist for Chinese audience. It may well be in English someday, I am not translating it, I haven’t even read the book so I don’t know what it says. This is a book about me, not by me.

May 6, 2009
China is Like America 100 years Ago
China is a fascinating place to invest in. China is on the rise, like America 100 years ago, and the problems the Asian giant is encountering right now in certain, mainly export-driven, sectors of its economy will not alter the country’s long-term trajectory.


JR

[bushtuckaman] 06/5/2009 14:24

Those clips have been posted on here before i think trader

[traderabc] 06/5/2009 09:59

Jim Rogers was Right pt 1/2

Take note montyhedge...

Part 1



Part 2

[traderabc] 05/5/2009 22:18

Buffett: 'I'd invest in the UK'

Mr Buffett said it was still too early to say when the recession would end


Billionaire investor Warren Buffett has told the BBC he is still prepared to invest in the UK.

The "Sage of Omaha" was bullish about the UK's prospects when asked if the country was a good investment.

"Sure. We own a couple of stocks in the UK. I'd be delighted to buy a good business over in the UK," he said.

His comments came in an interview with BBC Radio 4's Broadcasting House programme at the annual meeting of his company, Berkshire Hathaway.

[traderabc] 05/5/2009 13:08

Jim Rogers interview on Radio One on April 30, 2009

'I'm worried about the world'

Part 1



Part 2


Part 3



All three found here