Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[johndoe23] 30/1/2020 11:05

Excellent results along with special divi, looks good value. Spread is just too wide for me!!

[serratia] 30/1/2020 10:24

I run a financial model relating to social media use. It gives me all the figures down to operating cash flow. I then apply a multiple to OCF to get a share price target. I could adjust the model on a daily basis but just update it now and again. Today it's signalling a target price of 448p.
I have a pre tax figure of £2.77m but that will change daily in relation to social media action.

[jeff h] 30/1/2020 08:37

FinnCap increasing forecasts yet again after todays Interims. They started this years forecast pre tax at £1.5m and have now upped it to £2.6m as well as saying

"...there still remains good scope for further positive profit upgrades"

Revised forecasts:-

Y/E 30/4/20 Pre Tax £2.6m EPS 22.7p Div 2.1p

Y/E 30/4/21 Pre Tax £3.0m EPS 25.9p Div 2.2p

Of course the frequent Special Dividend policy means the actual average annual dividend received is far more than the forecast, with Tender Offers I reckon I have trousered approx 125p a share in distributions since buying in here at approx 20p a share.

[boros10] 16/1/2020 20:48

Hi SpannI'd spotted your entry in the Stock Challenge competition and was particularly impressed as you are the highest ranked player with five profitable investments. That is no mean feat. Well done. If your real portfolio has BVXP, BOTB and ARC in decent size you'll have had a great start to 2020. Leon

[spann_703] 14/1/2020 14:52

Boros10,

I agree, very hard to argue against. It seems like an effective and hopefully helpful action which may be taken. I read somewhere recently that the "be gamble aware" phrase that gambling companies throw around to appear like they are doing their bit, unsurprisingly has little to no effect.

I'm a little disappointed in BOTB - I thought they were good value at 2.80-3.00 towards the end of the year, and was hoping to increase my holding now funds are available only to find the price has been on quite a tear!

As an aside, I note that you and I have very similar entries to [stockchallenge.co.uk] - it's been a good start, let's hope we are both as highly positioned at the end of the year!

[boros10] 14/1/2020 13:25

I note the decision by the Gambling Commission to ban the use of credit cards to pay for gambling services from April 14th.This should not impact BOTB as it is operating an unregulated non-gambling business. If this were to change,however, then the ban on credit cards would still have a minimal effect. It is my understanding that only approximately 5% or so of its transactions are paid for on credit cards, probably due to the low spend by most people of around £10. I imagine most players will simply switch to paying by debit card.I think this change is hard to argue against. It can't be right to let people gamble on expensive credit.

[serratia] 07/1/2020 17:45

I hold these shares. I've been developing a forecast model for on line companies giving me a prediction of cash flow. I then use a multiple of cash flow to decide on a fair price for the share looking forward. I can adjust/reset on a daily basis if I wanted but tend to update weekly.
I go back in this case over 6 years and look at what rating the market gives to the share. I get a max/min share price multiple to OCF. To date the market has ascribed a min of 8 to 9* OCF.
My model is still developing but going on past behaviour and predicting forward I was looking at a min price of 240p for the year 2020 so bought in at 265 - 270p. Not a large holding as the spread has nearly always been large and few shares are available to buy.
On the max side the price has been more volatile. As a general rule I use 10* OCF for a mature company, 12* for a growing company and 15* for a more rapidly growing company. BOTB last year had a max of 15.5* OCF and if I apply that to my model it's 415p. At 395p is near the top of my range.
I don't intend to sell and await the next results to see how close my model is to reality. The highest it's been is 24* OCF I think in anticipation of further improvements as they went totally on line. The following set of results brought the peak back to 15*.
So what could cause it to go above my peak figure ? First up in the past they were not fully on line so maybe they should now be given a higher rating. What I need to do is look at the ratings for gambling companies that are ONLY on line.
If anyone has any suggestions I'll run the market ratings over a couple of others to see if a range of 8 - 15 is the norm or possibly higher.

[davidosh] 07/1/2020 15:55

FWIW....My Stock Challenge five selections for 2020 are BOTB
360.00
DTG
1672.00
SPSY
150.00
RTC
58.00
TND
170.00

[grabster] 18/6/2019 15:02

I am impressed by the BOTB competitions web facility - the design and the clean efficient execution process. I am not an avid gambler myself, but have had a couple of goes this week, and I can see how enticingly the system operates - without any of the flashing lights and raz. that other gambling sites employ. I can see it becoming very popular. I understand the tickets were £60 each (!) when the company first launched; the lowest entry level now is just 10p.

[lukmanpatel] 10/6/2019 06:18

Another troll by the username lsehotdealz haha, share price is stagnant and there’s talks of fundraise at 10p on that board lol desperation has lead to going round posting on different board to prevent share price from dropping, usually ud stay quiet and average down and accumulate if you see huge potential lmaoo he’s spamming all the boards

[jeff h] 02/5/2019 13:22

finnCap upped its profits forecast to £2.0m now after starting the year forecasting £1.4m, quite an increase.

I see BOTB now have recently added a Lifestyles competition and also a Midweek competition which presumably will boost trading.

[lendmeafiver] 12/3/2019 10:34

Well they purchased 3.125% of my stock, don’t know where that number came from given the RNS

[ccraig69] 18/2/2019 13:12

that feeling when you forget to tender your shares

[lendmeafiver] 15/2/2019 21:05

I’ve done the same thing with the motorbikes which is rediculous given I’m in my 40s and have never had a bike licence!

[rambutan2] 15/2/2019 20:11

Yes, I seem to spend a bit extra each week trying to win a superbike, on top of my usual car tickets!

[lendmeafiver] 15/2/2019 20:05

Very good point, the online only business model appears to be working well, especially with the rollout of the new lifestyle competitions.

[jeff h] 15/2/2019 18:16

"As a result of profitable trading since 31 October 2018, at 31 January 2019 the Company had unaudited Cash and Cash Equivalents of £5.716m (31 October 2018: £6.1944m) and Retained Earnings of £3.559m (31 October 2018: £2.947m). Copies of the full unaudited Company balance sheet as at 31 January 2019 will shortly be available from Companies House."

Sounds like a very profitable 3rd quarter - a net profit of over £600k

[jeff h] 31/1/2019 13:51

Paul has done another interview with CEO William Hindmarch and kindly posted it onto his website:-

[jeff h] 30/1/2019 17:26

Paul Scott asked the CEO of BOTB about the listing and going private early in the below interview:-

[jeff h] 30/1/2019 11:37

A cash cow for all holders I think bookbroker.

Since first buying at 20p in Oct 2010 I have received over 60p in dividends plus participated in a previous tender offer and will tender for the latest offer, so it is not just the board who have benefited.

[bookbroker] 30/1/2019 11:29

This company just a cash cow for the board, the spread is ridiculous, remember buying at 75p a few years back, sold on a profit, could have hung on and just watched the money roll in, but fair dinkum to them, it is a simple and very lucrative business model! And today is just another windfall, there have been numerous special dividends of recent years!

[richyst] 30/1/2019 11:07

Ahh yes, I get it! Thanks jeff. Congrats on your purchase.

[jeff h] 30/1/2019 10:54

To participate in the Tender Offer, shares need to be held by the Tender Offer Record Date which is 18th Feb 2019 per todays announcement

"...The Tender Offer is open to Qualifying Shareholders on the Register at 5.00 p.m. on the Tender Offer Record Date...."



If you are a holder and subsequently want to tender your shares, you can tender 1 share for every 14 held, though can apply to tender a greater amount in the hope that other holders do not tender their entitlement although the directors holding 74% of the shares have said they intend participating. You tender via your broker with payment due to be received in early March - all details in the above announcement.