Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 25/9/2007 07:01

Prime London property braced for a fall - The Times

[cockneyrebel] 23/9/2007 15:25

Wouldn't be the first director to get it wrong - several Pendragon directors bough £400K each about a month ago @ 81p, today they are 59p.

From Rightmove's recent report - house price falls in London:

London''s Worst 5 Performers September 2007

Monthly Change
Islington £495,988 £516,306 -3.9%
Merton £378,695 £394,810 -4.1%
Haringey £367,978 £384,398 -4.3%
Camden £611,641 £662,649 -7.7%
Brent £476,063 £516,104 -7.8%

And these were the best 5 performers!

Tower Hamlets £414,644 £404,449 2.5%
Kensington and Chelsea £1,459,403 £1,449,385 0.7%
Southwark £358,698 £362,745 -1.1%
Hackney £424,705 £429,681 -1.2%
Lewisham £321,396 £325,204 -1.2%

[rik shaw] 23/9/2007 15:13

But the boss of this firm is still confident

[cockneyrebel] 17/9/2007 12:22

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Alan Greenspan, the former head of the US Federal Reserve has warned of a possible downturn in UK house prices amid rising interest rates and a global credit crunch, the Daily Telegraph reported. "There are going to be some difficulties," Greenspan told the Telegraph in an interview.

"Can (the boom) last? No. You're already beginning to see the mortgage rates are moving; a lot of the two-year fixes are going beginning to unwind. It's going to turn, it's got to turn."

Greenspan also warned that Britain is more vulnerable to the effects of the credit crunch than the US.

"In Britain, the housing (market) hasn't turned yet, and the consumer households are more subject to interest rate changes than in the United States," Greenspan said.

In a separate interview in the Financial Times, Greenspan said US house prices are likely to fall significantly, predicting that the decline "is going to be larger than most people expect."

The former Federal Reserve chairman said he expected prices to fall by a large single digit figure "as a minimum," adding that he would not be surprised if the fall was "in double digits."

Over the weekend, UK building society Nationwide, publisher of a closely-watched survey of UK property prices, warned that it expects UK house price growth of just 3 pct next year, about half its estimated level for 2007 as a whole.

Analysts have said financial difficulties at UK mortgage lender Northern Rock, which was forced to seek emergency funding from the Bank of England last week, is likely to sap consumer confidence, weighing on house price growth.

[matthewa] 13/9/2007 15:20

Chart not looking ood - clearly 2gbp divi not helping sentiment

[redtelephone] 04/8/2006 09:31

Better off now with tiddlers like Oakdene Homes now.Read below story from July 17th Evening Standard;

Gladedale set for £500m raid on rivals
James Rossiter, Evening Standard
17 July 2006
BRITAIN'S largest privately owned housebuilder, Gladedale, is ready to spend up to £500m buying up rivals.

Gladedale snapped up quoted southern housebuilder Country & Metropolitan for £72m in April last year. Earlier this year, Dipre said he splashed out 'just south of £50m' for privately owned East Anglian builder Premier Homes.

Gladedale's appetite for further acquisitions will fuel speculation that housebuilders are set for another round of consolidation. The biggest purchase so far this year was Persimmon's £643m buy of Westbury, which propelled it into the FTSE 100.

Numis Securities analyst Mark Hughes cited as likely Glendale target Aim-listed Oakdene Homes, valued at £48m (2007 P/E 2.9)- but did not rule out Crest Nicholson, which could sell for more than £500 million.

But Gladedale could itself fall prey to an approach from a larger builder. Analysts reckon Barratt Developments, Britain's second-biggest housebuilder, will hit the acquisitions trail once former Centrica executive Mark Clare takes over from David Pretty as chief executive later this year.

Newly published figures from Gladedale showed pre-tax profits grew to £61.7m from £41.7m over the year to the end of December, including a £10m contribution from the C&M purchase.

Turnover surged 39% to £348.3m. It is sitting on land bank with a development value of about £4.5bn.

[utsushi] 05/7/2006 08:27

I guess TP's purchase of £0.7m recently must be judged in the context of the March £11m sale?

[lafiamma] 14/6/2005 07:31

Over in the housebuilding sector, Westbury advanced 6p to 464p on rumours of a bid approach. Elsewhere, Berkeley Group gained 12p to 873p as traders reflected further on Friday's news that Saad Investments now owns just over 20% of the company.

[pachiaammos] 10/12/2004 10:44

This stock is a - not because profits will increase (they won't, the co is clear on that) but because the market is undervaluing our investments. Let's take a 4 year view. At the end of 2008 you have £4 per share in your pocket from the cashbacks. Let's say pre-tax profits fall by 30% over that period - maybe an overpessimistic estimate but let's say. Your company is then making 130p per share. You paid (back in Dec 2004) approx £3.60 per share for that stake (760p less £4). p/e of 2.8!!! Any company doing anything except building houses you'd be paying at least three times as much (today), probably four times as much to buy shares with that kind of profit.

Don't just look at the co's potential growth, look at the value.

[wertyu13] 09/12/2004 07:34

BKG (BKL)

Investors continue to account for over 50% of our reservations - a reassuring
sign of the continuing strength of the underlying investor market. Under the
Group's definition, investors can range from large institutions to customers
purchasing a second home.

Berkeley's strategy continues to be to sell houses at an early stage in the
development cycle as this secures customers' commitment and therefore the
quality of future revenue.

The market has moderated in the last six months. Reservation levels in Berkeley Homes and St George in the first six months are 15% down compared to the same period last year although the market is showing signs of resilience with this trend reversing in November and reservations are now at similar levels for the seven month period when compared to the same period last year

[wertyu13] 09/12/2004 07:21

Results 110mln. previous 115mln

[pachiaammos] 06/12/2004 18:53

BKG is IMO still a good buy. There is £7 per share to come in cashbacks and even discounted over time at 7% (to allow for the opportunity cost of money and the risk of the co not being able to pay as planned) that is worth approx £5.20 today. Which doesn't leave much in the share price for the profits and dividends from the continuing business. Brokers are forecasting 109p eps for the year to April 2006 so the present share price values the company as worth the cash promised plus a prospective p/e of 2. Isn't that ridiculous?