Berkeley Energia Share Discussion Threads

[snowyflake] 25/1/2016 22:21

herlat - if you are referring to my post this evening I did not say that. What I said was that Ian Middlemas had a load of shares in BKY and I did not think that he would want to see his investment go up in smoke (or words to that effect).

If Ian Middlemas was able to turn Mantra from a small uranium company to a company which he sold for the equivalent of £500 million I feel that if there were financing difficulties to develop BKY he could find a purchaser with the funds to finance the necessary development which would turn out to be a purchase of the company.

I am not looking for an overnight return on my investment; I guess the corollary of Que Passa looking for justification for investing in the shares of the company.

[quepassa] 25/1/2016 21:35

341 refers.

[herlat1] 25/1/2016 21:11

Thanks Rampair a good reference. Clearly with the removal of subsidies for renewables means that Spain, like the UK, is becoming ever more dependent on nuclear generated power.Interesting also that this change came about under the socialists.QP you have made that same post on financing several times now. Is there something you wish to add ie why you think this company will not be able to finance the project? Inward investment into Spain has not come to a halt and as Snowyflake points out this group has a very strong track record in financing and m&a.

[quepassa] 25/1/2016 20:18

Certain parties keep on banging on about new uranium finds.

Seems to me that this has likely to all intents and purposes been "pre-announced" already.

If Berkeley and their advisors think the price will shoot up again if and when they put out one or more additional zona7-type RNS's, I think they are barking up the wrong tree. That is already priced in, in my opinion.

Investors are becoming RNS-weary and getting bored with the same old repetitious Salamanca story and presentations. New uranium discoveries have been hinted at so widely, that they are expected and will not move the price significantly in my view.

If Berkeley think their media onslaught and more RNS's will drive the share price up as a prelude to a possible equity raising, I think they are going to be disappointed.

What the market now wants to see in my opinion is financing on the table and that is not yet forthcoming. And indeed the market is more destabilised because of the volatile political situation in Spain at the moment which may further hamper/delay debt/equity issuance.

So where is this long-promised financing? I don't see it. Berkeley keep on talking the talk about financing the project of $81million.

Now is the time to walk the talk on the financing front.

Let's see the money. Or at least part of it.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[snowyflake] 25/1/2016 19:39

There could be a problem if the lefties get a power sharing role but I still think that jobs will come ahead of ideology.

Inward investment is a new one but should the company struggle to raise development finance I do not think that Ian Middlemas will want to be beaten with the millions of shares he has in the company which might be at risk.

He may well seek to replicate what he achieved with Mantra and seek a buyer for the company - Mantra went for the equivalent of £500 million. The only guidance that we have for BKY is the valuation per share put out by the board in presentations and that might change with a good result or results from the exploration programme.

[rampair] 25/1/2016 18:51

Interesting posts from contributors. As a shareholder with BKY we like to look at all things that could possibly affect our investment.
Clearly Nuclear power is a very emotive issue one & this has been reflected in the way successive governments have dealt with the market. Berkeley does not exist in a vacuum.

Previously it has had a big joint venture with Spanish partner & this started well but ultimately went wrong.

However, we seem to be on to a good ore source in a market that may well expand. As long as the Politics can be adapted to keep all participants informed and content.

a very good information source on both nuclear issues in Spain & specifically the history of Berkeley is
Here: hxxp://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Country-Profiles/Countries-O-S/Spain/

All holders should read the part halfway down the page to get an idea about our company.

All viewpoints should be taken into account when investing, so, from our point of view - all contributors are welcome, but it's best to stick to issues rather than personalities surely?

Rampair.

[herlat1] 25/1/2016 15:30

Langostino the article you reference says absolutely nothing at all about inward investment coming to a halt!It refers to wealthy Spaniards looking to stash their cash in tax havens.."The events of recent days have not given clarity on the next Prime Minister of Spain (Pablo Iglesias offering to enter the Government, Mariano Rajoy resignation of the inauguration, Citizen possible abstention, loan seats nationalists PSOE. ..), but an executive headed by Pedro Sanchez could be on the horizon. This scenario greatly worries the high net worth individuals due to possible measures that can be taken in relation to taxation, SICAV, capital controls, etc. For good measure, they have begun to open accounts in countries like Switzerland, Luxembourg and London, as confirmed by sources other than private banks."

[langostino] 25/1/2016 15:00

No, a few English pensioners are still buying their dream homes on the Costa but the serious money is moving in the other direction.

hxxp://www.elconfidencial.com/mercados/2016-01-24/los-ricos-ponen-rumbo-a-londres-suiza-y-luxemburgo-por-miedo-a-un-frente-popular_1139118/

[herlat1] 25/1/2016 14:41

Inward investment has come to a halt in Spain? Really? The property market has suddenly stopped?

[fatboy20] 25/1/2016 14:18

Look

PA would not be wasting his time or credibility if he thought there was any chance that a change in govt would kybosh the thing. He just wouldn't bother he has loads of experience in this sort of stuff. I recall he was involved in another project in the Iberian peninsula 20 years or so ago can't remember the details but it fell foul of a Govt issue. He simply won't allow that to happen again1

[quepassa] 25/1/2016 14:17

langostino,

Excellent post. you are clearly a very astute investor and realise the the impact that politics can have on the market.

an unstable political backdrop creates market uncertainty and the financial markets hate uncertainty.

i note especially your comment that "Inward investment has come to a halt in Spain pending this clarification and I would assume that this would also apply to any BKY funding."

we still have heard nothing concrete about funding from Berkeley and in my opinion any potential equity raising in this uncertain market is less than optimal from a timing point-of-view.

the Political risks create a lot of uncertainty and are likely to cause timing delays for all sorts of things as you correctly point out.

financiers - whether debt or equity - do not like the uncertainty brought about by a volatile political situation, such as we have in Spain currently.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[herlat1] 25/1/2016 13:44

Langostino what makes you think anything has stopped on the Salamanca project?It already has its approvals. It makes no more difference who is in government in Madrid.

[langostino] 25/1/2016 13:06

My point was never that this project would or would not go ahead. It was that the price would drift until a government was formed allowing investment decisions to be made appropriate to the new circumstances. Inward investment has come to a halt in Spain pending this clarification and I would assume that this would also apply to any BKY funding.
That some investors prefer to ignore negative currents surrounding their investment choices is their decision, but I imagine they are accustomed to losses.

[fatboy20] 25/1/2016 12:13

IMHO this is all a red herring. The issue here is simply how soon the CEO can arrange the funding to get the stuff out of the ground and sold thus providing an income stream!

Why is it a red herring? Because even if the antis do get in a position to stop it which is very unlikely because of the employment situation, they won't be able to do it quickly thus meaning that people have jobs and therefore the political will will vanish into thin air. Just let PA do his thing and watch the share price imitate a Saturn rocket!

[herlat1] 25/1/2016 10:23

QP and Langostino:My quote: "There is zero chance Podemos will gain power under any of the coalition scenarios currently being considered. Check the BBC analysis. "They would be at best a (noisy) minority coalition partner to the socialists (who are pro-Nuclear) as per the articles you have referenced.Ie there is zero chance of any policy change to Spain's well established policy on Nuclear power generation.

[quepassa] 25/1/2016 10:09

You appear to be confusing negative with factual.

There appears to be one camp saying there is "zero chance for Podemos" and another camp just saying what is fact and what is openly reported in the global press, namely that left-wing Podemos are in talks to form a coalition. - If you read The Independent article you will see that this is fact not fiction.

You say that is negative. It is not , it is realistic. The facts are the facts.

Let us see the outcome.It seems that the chances of a leftist/Podemos coalition are growing.

And if Podemos do form a coalition, langostino is absolutely right to point out potential increased POLITICAL RISK associated with anything nuclear in Spain.

Political risk in Europe with the recent formation throughout Europe of so many new political parties is becoming much more significant than in the recent past.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[rhuvaal2] 25/1/2016 09:47

Negative posters don't usually write anything (why be bothered) unless they're
hoping to enter at a lower price.

[quepassa] 25/1/2016 09:07

Good post, langostino.

And a similar article in English:-




Podemos are in the frame. Not as suggested in 356.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[langostino] 25/1/2016 08:51

'There is zero chance Podemos will gain power under any of the coalition scenarios currently being considered'

hxxp://www.eldiario.es/politica/Sanchez-Iglesias-negociacion-gobierno-progresista_0_477002677.html

[snowyflake] 25/1/2016 08:06

I do not think any of us unless we are experts in Spanish political matters can prophesy with accuracy the type of government that might emanate from negotiation. The likelihood is that there will be another election.

Be that as it may unemployment is rife in the Salamanca area. There are as herlat states 7 nuclear plants in Spain. No licence for any of those expires earlier than 2020. Spain lays out a ton in subsidies for renewables and imports the whole of 16000 tonnes of uranium per annum to feed their reactors. I do not see Berkeley being refused any further permits required nor do I see the Salamanca operations being closed down.

[herlat1] 25/1/2016 07:29

Haha Langostino a B52 crashing in the 1960s?? There is nobody in Podemos who was even born then! They would think a B52 is a shot in a nightclub!!There is zero chance Podemos will gain power under any of the coalition scenarios currently being considered. Check the BBC analysis. They will at best be a (very) noisy minority in a multiparty coalition.More likely - as you point out - a new election in May. History shows incumbent parties do well under these circumstances.Salamanca is an existing uranium province which had operating uranium mines until recently. 20% of Spain's electricity is generated by Nuclear power.

[langostino] 24/1/2016 16:01

Because, heralt1, anything as politically charged as the reintroduction of uranium production in a country where a USAF B-52 crashed with a payload of four nuclear bombs, and there are still contaminated no-go areas nearly 50 years later, will need the support of the government of the day whatever a previous government may have agreed. This is especially the case if Spain's 'new politics' gives power to Podemos that supports the no-uranio platform and has a manifesto pledge to phase out all nuclear installations. IMO this is potentially an excellent investment, subject to a remaining element of political risk.

[snowyflake] 22/1/2016 12:08

The area where Salamanca is situated has very high unemployment. It follows that if there is some opposition to anything nuclear the opponents will have to explain to the locals of whom 100s have applied for a job at Salamanca when construction starts why they cannot have a job, if the authorities oppose construction and production. Corbyn's explanation ridiculed by many that the UK have Trident submarines (look arrfter the workers)but that they do not contain warheads, comes to mind?

[herlat1] 22/1/2016 10:51

Langostino What is the connection between the Spanish electoral process - which as you point out could drag on for several months and the Salamanca project - which already has all its EU, national and local approvals?

[quepassa] 22/1/2016 09:32

langostino, you make some good points. Spanish politics are in a volatile phase.

All things related to nuclear in Spain have been a political football for many decades.

Please do not allow the disrespectful and belittling tactics of other posters prevent you from posting your good and valid opinions.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP