Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[scottishfield] 09/1/2015 14:26

added here.

[essentialinvestor] 09/1/2015 14:10

Added a few.

[owenski] 09/1/2015 14:09

As the headline says - "Fears" - fears are not reality.

The market dynamic for housing remains essentially unchanged, affordability is an issue if the business is purely geared towards first time buyers with limited finance options. BKG is not focused on this sector, plus its in the London/SE sweet spot.

Lets see what a stock that offers a good outlook which BKG does and lumps out an 8% yield looks like in a couple of months time.

[lauders] 09/1/2015 13:56

Wow! 100p of the share price based on someone's opinion of the future. That's what makes a market but are they correct? Time only will tell but a lot of people are either believers or more likely just taking advantage of the trading opportunity being presented!

[citymohawk] 09/1/2015 13:48

Exactly! I'm almost certain this analyst has just started shaving. This is the one thing that annoys me about the sector. Manipulated beyond comprehension.

[gargleblaster] 09/1/2015 13:22

Must be Jefferies - all housing/property stocks down. Absurd - some geezer in am ivory tower calls the top of the housing market and everything comes crashing down. What does he know that we don't know? Interest rates are going nowhere, incomes are picking up - the economy looks okay - the EU is gonna have to do QE. What's all the fuss?

[gargleblaster] 09/1/2015 11:56

Standard Life have been reducing their exposure. Can't see housing falling much if int rates don't go down - and I don't think they will for some time yet.

[redips2] 09/1/2015 10:42

Great, 2200'ish would suit me for a nice top up .

[sogoesit] 09/1/2015 09:26

We'll be looking for increased yields soon, then.
My chart says support on an uptrend line broken at 2425p; next support is at 2200p.
Good luck!

[slopsjon2] 09/1/2015 09:00

*DJ Berkeley Group Cut to Underperform From Buy by Jefferies

[manrobert] 07/1/2015 08:12

strong trading updates from persimmon and galliford.years ago bt galliford at 40p..if only I held on to them.

[gargleblaster] 06/1/2015 15:55

DRS - fair enough - perhaps I am more out of touch than I thought - taxman certainly wants his pound of flesh!

[dr_smith] 06/1/2015 14:04

gb - I sold a house for £269k last year and bought at £287k. Sale and house hunt was over 18 months with daily viewing of rightmove of literally thousands in this price range, so I do speak from experience - and yes it was a prolonged and boring process.
Re fixtures and fittings, yes years ago figures would be juggled to avoid the tax man, but now if you want to have F&F above £2,500 the taxman is now wise and itemised schedule is required. Many fittings are deemed to be part of property, so can't be hived out any more in the manner you describe.

[gargleblaster] 06/1/2015 13:49

Dr Smith - your example is a poor on imv. The reason that transactions were going through at £249,999 was that all other extras (such as fixtures, fittings etc - often very substantially boosted figures) were kept out of the sale price by Solicitors - so that the buyer only had to pay Stamp duty below the 250K band. separate payment was then made for the extras. It is not necessarily the case that the seller lost out - although evidently some buyers will have benefited from "using the bands" to their advantage.

As regards the influence/payment aspect - it would be fairer to say that it is spread between buyer and seller.

As regards 50% stamp duty - one thing is for sure it would lead to stagnation in the housing market as people would effectively be trapped in their homes (which is happening to a certain extent already).

[barnesian] 06/1/2015 13:39

I think this share is underpinned by its very high dividend yield.

The company seems to be run in a financially conservative way, and the top management are hugely motivated to maintain the dividend so I see very little downside risk to the dividend.

Prospects for interest rate cuts are receding as deflation, partly caused by the oil price drop, looms larger.

There is a lot of cash sloshing around looking for a home. High yield shares are attractive.

There is currently a lot of fear around with talk of the mansion tax and political uncertainty and this is having an effect on the share price of BKG. But the underlying pressure on this share is surely upwards, driven not by the housing market, but by its divident yield.

[sogoesit] 06/1/2015 12:16

Indeed, an interesting chart (inverse head & shoulders)... potential downside to 2200p or less. I hold but would accumulate lower.

[hpcg] 06/1/2015 11:43

1. Labour mobility is best provided by rented accommodation.
2. Property owners make an insignificant contribution to land improvement yet reap the benefits. See Jubilee line extension, Crossrail, M25 etc etc. No one should be able to buy a built property, leave it empty and sell it for a profit.
3. That said it would be better to tax land in addition to houses and commercial property, with appropriate grades depending on how improved the area is, whether people have access, farmland, fallowland, woodland etc. In other words how much the community has contributed and how much benefit does the community get back.

Interesting chart at the moment. I'm out currently but would welcome a chance to come back in closer to 2000.

[sogoesit] 05/1/2015 12:19

It justs adds to the cost of housing as well.
Anyone buying a property, in order to make a profit, will only sell when their costs are covered.
Another case of government's unintended consequences... or shooting themselves in the foot when they complain about house prices going up!!
Of course it doesn't help with flexibility in the labour market either since anyone needing to move for a new job thereby faces higher costs and a resultant lack of willingness to move.
Government... dontcha just love it?

[rcturner2] 05/1/2015 12:01

Imagine if stamp duty was set to 50%, what would happen to house prices?

The irony is that it is buyers who moan about stamp duty, whereas it should be the seller who are moaning as that money being paid to the tax man should be going to them instead.

[dr_smith] 05/1/2015 11:32

gb - RCT is speaking of the influence, not the physical payment.
The seller has to seek a lower market price to offset what the buyer sees as a penalty. This was very much in evidence up to recent change with (non-new) properties in £250-300k band often only realising £250k, or being substantially marked down - hence it is the seller that pays.

[gargleblaster] 05/1/2015 11:21

RCTurner - You have got it the wrong way around - stamp duty is paid by the buyer not the seller!

Obviously if stamp duty increases (at the higher end) then it will influence buyers decisions in a negative way. It really is a negative tax - why should one be taxed for moving house? Lack of sales also hits all the other workers who are involved when someone sells a propertye so it is also a negative for the economy generally.

[dr_smith] 05/1/2015 10:34

If it's a UK resident, you have little choice.
If you are an overseas investor, then it is an extra cost, but hopefully against a backdrop of a rising market and cost (in accounting terms) can be viewed as spread over long term of ownership.
Last year I bought a house for £287k, paying extra £6k for >£250k stamp duty.
I could have bought a £250k property, but then may have wanted to move again in short term, so a false economy, or bought a wreck and done it up/extended it, but took the longer term view to the one off cost.
So, I'm on a smaller scale, but same logic applies.
In short - yes agree - little to be concerned of for BKG.

[rcturner2] 05/1/2015 10:33

I think it is fairly well established that stamp duty influences the price of the house (ie it is paid by the seller not the buyer). Prices will adjust to take into account the changes.