Bellway Share Discussion Threads

[yewtrees] 29/7/2010 14:14

Positive feedback from the two sites I phoned. The government scheme to help first time buyers is being taken up, some sites have it some don't.
I have bought bwy shares in my isa today. Also encouraged by the two large buys earlier.

[yewtrees] 29/7/2010 10:01

Has anyone done any research as to how the house sales are going in developments? I am making a few enquiries locally to me in the South East.

[nealcowan] 28/7/2010 08:39

results out on 5th aug. If they are any good hopefully this will jump

[hy3nas4] 15/6/2010 08:26

Good Interim?

[nealcowan] 24/3/2010 08:27

very good results. why havent they spoken about their land bank?

[essentialinvestor] 26/2/2010 18:21

yew

I can only reconfirm your SE perspective which is also my experience.

I'm invested in Berkeley(BKG) which is entirely London and the SE.

[yewtrees] 26/2/2010 16:27

I have done some research, in as much as calling Bellway asking about new homes and new sites. And also calling estate agents enquiring about houses on the market. The agents seem to be busy and selling. My enquiries have been in the South East. Therefore I feel positive about my investment here.
Can someone else do the same in another area.

[cerrito] 12/2/2010 18:06

The summary of a bullish Numis note on Bellway
quote
Despite Bellway being the second best performing housebuilder since the peak of
the market, its attractions still hold. We forecast that Bellway will show upper
quartile growth in net asset value per share over the following three years which
when considered alongside the potential for top-quartile ROCE, should provide
material upside for the investor. The key factors supporting these forecasts is the
attractive financing facility, net cash position, the fact that current landholdings
have strong embedded margins and the group has been one of the most aggressive
in buying land since prices stabilised in early 2009.
n Bellway has been the second best performing housebuilder since its 2007 peak with its
shares falling c.58% compared to a sector average fall of 76%. In our view this relates
to the company's prudent capital structure, attractive financing facility (with a unique set
of covenants) and well bought landholdings.
n Our analysis shows that Bellway will be one of the earliest and biggest beneficiaries of
new high return land feeding through to production. This is mainly a function of the
company purchasing more land than most of its peers since early 2009 but also that
the group's capital structure poses no constraint to rebuilding work in progress and site
numbers.
n We estimate Bellway will be able to generate ROCE of 14.2% in the year to Dec 2013,
compared to sector average ROCE of 11%. Furthermore, we forecast Bellway could
show 10.6% compound annual growth in net asset value against the sector average of
c.8%. Both of these metrics are top-quartile and in our view should be reflected in a
premium valuation.
n We consider valuation in light of the historic relationship between ROCE and P/NTAV
multiple. This shows that based on 2011 forecasts Bellway should command a P/NTAV
multiple of 1.1x, implying a target price of 1049p.

[bluepsw] 09/2/2010 18:50

Wise words - lets see what happens over the coming days now its in the zone.

[essentialinvestor] 08/2/2010 20:31

Sector being killed at the moment, wait for it to turn imo,
"dont fight the tape" AS JL once said.

[bluepsw] 08/2/2010 19:37

Although house prices in the uk are slowly rising, there is another knock still yet to come - interest rate rises........ 2nd half has potential.

With 92% of its target sold or reserved - will support around 700 hold and continue on its upward trend?

[knockers2] 05/6/2009 11:54

really bullish p[rice target

[knockers2] 02/6/2009 11:20

still no love for bellway

[kbass] 21/4/2009 08:12

Standing on the sidelines, watching.

[2phildove] 07/4/2009 19:35

EATONFIELD.co.uk
fantastic if still correct... as at 28/10/08
Significant shareholders

(A shareholder who holds 3% or more)

Shareholder Amount %
Rob Lloyd 11,000,000 47.7
SAAD Investments Ltd 6,880,000 29.8
UBS Wealth Management 957,500 4.2
Lloyds TSB 755,000 3.3
Sir Leslie Young and
Lady Margaret Young 400,000 1.7
Suki Kalirai 40,000 0.2

Shares In Issue

There are 23,064,775 ordinary shares in issue.

Percentage Not In Public Hands

79.4% Not in public hands*
= less than 5 million pulicly held and 2 million changed hands today!!
easy to get this to move!!!!

[wig123] 04/4/2009 13:19

UK House Builders
Catching a falling knife?
The affordability of UK homes
UK house prices have fallen on an unprecedented scale but are they now
attractive? We explore the affordability issue using our bespoke models,
which allow us to discuss the outlook for house prices in a range of
different scenarios. Although we believe that affordability has improved, it
remains stretched and is highly sensitive to certain key variables, notably
real wages. Should these fall – surely a risk factor, given economic
conditions – affordability may not be restored for the best part of a decade.
Furthermore, in the context of past experience (take a deep breath), house
prices could more than halve from here (a peak to trough decline of 62%).









Opening paragraph of a very interesting report I have just read that at the very least affirms any bullish stance I held on housebuilders has been somewhat misplaced with the recent bear rally. Looks very much like Bellway will be in the firing line when the shxte hits the fan. IMO

[rafieh] 31/3/2009 08:27

Strong set of figures under the circumstances, and one of the few builders still paying a dividend.

[fast investor] 04/3/2009 12:45

Lovely looking chart with uptrend channel firmly in place...

[fast investor] 04/3/2009 11:52

Chart looks very positive.

Uptrend trange range developed and share price bouncing along nicely in the trend channels.

[fast investor] 04/3/2009 09:30

After last months trading update....

After more than a decade of boom times housebuilders are slumping in the downturn, but analysts see Bellway as well -placed due to its low debt levels and conservative approach. "The overall statement is in-line - if not a little ahead of our expectations," said Robert Gardiner at Davy Research. "With a strong management team and solid balance sheet Bellway will be one of the best placed UK builders when the sector recovers." The company said debt remains a key short-term goal, but it is optimistic of a recovery. "The Board is ever mindful of positioning the business for the medium and long term by ensuring that the Group's infrastructure is protected, as much as possible, so as to capitalise when confidence returns," the company said in a statement. The group said it is operating within its bank facilities of 402 million pounds, which were renegotiated last year and extend to 2015....... ENDS


Looks like one of the better positioned house builders and the chart is rather impressive.

[fast investor] 04/3/2009 09:07

Brokers in the main like the company....

Bellway PLC

FORECASTS
2009 2010

Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
03-03-09 HOLD 28.55 17.84 8.00 13.71 8.57 8.00

Arbuthnot Securities
02-03-09 BUY 38.50 33.60 8.00 29.00 25.31 5.00

Collins Stewart
24-02-09 HOLD

Numis Securities Ltd
20-02-09 BUY 40.00 25.70 12.00 31.00 19.70 12.

[cockneyrebel] 15/2/2009 20:56

Here Are a Few Green Shoots
Mail on Sunday
(Financial, page 55)
Mark Foxwell
15-2-2009

Business Minister Baroness Vadera was pilloried by the Conservatives for suggesting there were a few green shoots of economic recovery but some industries are suggesting that she could be right.

House sales prices saw an unexpected increase last month, whlie shipping freight rates rose by more than 50% and commercial vehicle leasing companies are seeing a big jump in inquiries.

Leading housebuilders including Taylor Wimpey, Bellway and Redrow, reported price rises of about 2.5% for January, adding more than £4,000 to the average value of new homes.

Berkley Group, which raised its house prices last month, saw a doubling of sales in the past two weeks according to Chairman Tony Pidgley.

"The market is showing signs of recovery, with prices beginning to stabilise" he said. "Interest rates have been cut and people are looking to make a safe investment. Its a good time to buy".

Official house price figures for December are due on Tuesday and will be scrutinised for signs of life in the property market.

The index, from the Department for Communities and Local Government, measures the prices paid for properties as opposed to mortgage approvals or any other yardstick and the index has shown relatively moderate price falls.

In other sectors, shipping rates for bulk carriers used to transport wheat, coal and iron ore have more than tripled since early December, helped by a huge short-term increase in Chinese imports of iron ore.

Another sector enjoying a recovery is the commercial vehicle leasing market, where leading firm Fraikin, which manages more than 16,000 vehicles, reported a 25% increase in inquiries last month against the previous January.

The company's commercial director David Farbon said: "We are seeing a light at the end of the tunnel. We expect the commercial vehicle market to continue to rise this year".

[cockneyrebel] 13/2/2009 07:36

Cash buyers scent rich pickings in property



CR

[cockneyrebel] 10/2/2009 15:02

Chairman buys another 32K - second 32K buy he's had plus a load of prefs recently - about £400K worth in total.

CR