Bellway Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 10/2/2009 10:57

Viewing increasing - that means more sales 3-6 months out imo.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 09/2/2009 13:02

Slicing through the downtrend resistance - breakout looking even hornier imo.

150 day moving av through the 200 day too.

Cooking with gas here.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 05/2/2009 19:21

Have a read shorters - get ready for a severe cremation imo.



CR

[cockneyrebel] 05/2/2009 15:43

150 day moving average just about to go through the 200 day - looking very exciting.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 11/1/2009 12:05

Builders up tomorrow imo:



CR

[cockneyrebel] 10/1/2009 11:33

This is a good idea of Bellway's imo - try before you buy. Cash generative and entices buyers in. If they don't buy BWY have made the rent they take over that period and being a second hand house doesn't make it any less valueable really.

I reckon a few more builders will try it out.




CR

[cockneyrebel] 05/1/2009 15:33

TW has too big a pension prob for me.

BWY director buys £90K worth I see.

CR

[ceckyspunt] 05/1/2009 10:58

..what about tw.?

[cockneyrebel] 23/12/2008 10:41

Making new recent highs - chart here and at BVS and BDEV look very good imo.

CR

[midas] 23/12/2008 09:02

Surprised there is not more interest here - there is a clear positive breakout going on.

[midas] 19/12/2008 08:35

Citigroup still have Bellway as a BUY - Target 720



Morning Eyecatchers: Broker Roundup; Citigroup cuts targets in housebuilders
By Phil Cozens | 08:10:02 | 19 December 2008

* Citigroup, in a review of housebuilders, has a hold on Barratt Developments, cutting target to 80p from 170p, a buy for Bellway, cutting target to 720p from 850p, a hold for Bovis Homes, cutting target to 430p from 460p, downgrades Redrow to hold from buy, cutting target to 200p from 265p and has a hold on Taylor Wimpey, cutting target to 12p from 60p.

[cockneyrebel] 18/12/2008 21:32

yep, chart breaking out.

CR

[midas] 18/12/2008 08:49

richaims - without meaning to sound smug , youve gone quiet on the housing stocks - I assume youve closed your shorts ;-0

looking here they have broken resistance and looks good for a rise up to 7.00 maybe even higher (now I have said that they will clearly fall again ;-)

[midas] 17/12/2008 11:00

Nationwide brings back 95% mortgage

James Charles
Nationwide, Britain's biggest building society, has become the first lender to re-introduce mortgages worth up to 95 per cent of a property's value.

But the new home loans, which are only available to existing customers who are moving house, come at a high price. Borrowers wanting a fixed-rate deal will have to pay 7.18 per cent - 5.18 percentage points above the Bank of England base rate. The building society offers homeowners with a 40 per cent deposit a similar deal at 5.38 per cent, a difference of £225 a month on a £150,000 interest-only loan.

However, Britain's third-biggest lender also unveiled new tracker deals yesterday. A new two-year tracker for customers with a 5 per cent equity stake costs 5.49 per cent, 3.49 percentage points above base rate. Nationwide's best tracker deal for customers with a 40 per cent deposit is 4.49 per cent, 2.49 percentage points above base. This is also almost double the rate of its previous 95 per cent loan-to-value tracker deal, which was available in August, at 1.78 above base.

Andrew Montlake, of Cobalt Capital, a broker, said: "These deals are expensive but lenders are now pricing for risk. Re-entering the 95 per cent market is a bold move and it will help Nationwide's customers who desperately need to move house but couldn't find the finance. However, it is first-time buyers who would benefit most and they have been excluded."

Related Links
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Nationwide has also taken the opportunity to increase the cost of its fixed-rate deals for borrowers with a 15 per cent deposit by up to 0.3 percentage points, despite a dramatic fall in the cost of wholesale mortgage funding for new lending. Two-year swaps, which lenders use to fund fixed-rate mortgages, have fallen substantially in the past three months.

A two-year fixed-rate deal for borrowers with a 15 per cent deposit has jumped from 6.18 per cent to 6.48 per cent. Mortgage experts hope the introduction of 95 per cent loan-to-value deals by Nationwide will encourage other lenders to follow suit.

At the beginning of the year there were almost 900 mortgage deals on the market for borrowers with a 5 per cent deposit or equity stake in their home, according to Moneyfacts.co.uk, the financial website. The number of deals requiring a 40 per cent deposit has increased from 10 at the beginning of the year to 149 today.

Darren Cook, of Moneyfacts, said the figures "illustrate how banks and building societies have shifted their focus from rate to risk. Reducing property values are the main culprit, resulting in customers finding themselves in negative equity and banks being over-exposed."

Lenders have launched a number of fixed-rate mortgages in recent weeks but trackers, which are pegged to the base rate, remain the most popular mortgage.

Last month Nationwide introduced a lower threshold or "collar" on new tracker deals of 1 per cent, preventing borrowers from benefiting from cuts in base rate if it drops below 1 per cent. Most of the lender's existing borrowers are on tracker deals which have a collar of 2.75 per cent. Nationwide chose not to enforce its collar when the Bank of England cut the base rate to 2 per cent last month but it said it may do so in future.

[midas] 17/12/2008 09:27

Are there signs of a thaw in the housing market?
Figures from Rics hint that activity in the housing market can't fall much further
David Smith
This is hardly the time of year to talk about thaws, but are there signs of one in the housing market? Economists have been poring over the latest survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics), which showed the first increase in new buyer inquiries since October 2006. Normally, as Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at Rics, points out, such a rise is a prelude to a strengthening in housing demand.

Allan Monks, an economist with JP Morgan, described the figures as "a glimmer of hope". "Though there have been few positives to take from the housing-market data for some time," he wrote, "the Rics survey in November gave some hope that house-purchase activity has finally troughed and that the most intense phase of the downward price spiral is behind us", he wrote. Karen Ward, of HSBC, in a research note ominously called Catch a Falling Knife (ominous because HSBC is trumpeting its plan to boost mortgage lending significantly), described the findings as "tentative green shoots".

The present situation, of course, is far from normal. It is one thing for buyers to be venturing back into estate agents' offices, quite another for them actually to get a mortgage and overcome worries about unemployment and further house-price falls.

Everybody accepts this. Rubinsohn cautions against early stabilisation of prices or a big upturn in demand, though he thinks we may have reached the point where activity can't fall much further. Ward says first-time buyers need to return in far greater numbers – now they have to find larger deposits, we are some way away from that.

Monks sees mortgage approvals rising by 2,000 to 3,000 a month, resulting in a gradual improvement in the outlook for prices. So, he believes, monthly price falls will drop to about 1% on the Halifax and Nationwide measures, getting gradually smaller until, by the end of next year, prices will be flat. A 16% Halifax/Nationwide fall this year would be followed by one of 9% next.

That may be a lot to hang on one indicator, but it is a reasonable way to look at it. People tend to think in straight lines. Some (not me) thought that when prices were rising, they could only carry on doing so. Now some think they can only ever fall. It does not work like that. The world is not made of straight lines.

[midas] 16/12/2008 08:48

Anthony Bolton calls share rally in new year
Commercial property and the banks will lead new bull surge, predicts veteran stockpicker
Kathryn Cooper, Money Editor
ANTHONY BOLTON, one of the City's most respected fund managers, has urged investors to prepare for a new bull market early next year, led by banks and property stocks.
The veteran investor, who ran Fidelity's Special Situations fund for 28 years before standing down in 2007, believes that the FTSE 100's November low of 3,781 will prove to be the bottom of the downturn, with shares rallying sharply in the first three months of next year.
Bolton also called the bottom of the commercial-property market, in which real-estate stocks slumped 47% over the past 12 months. He said that he would be happy to buy commercial property at yields of 7.5%, despite warnings from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors last week that prices could fall a further 25%.
Speaking to The Sunday Times about the investment outlook for 2009, the stock-picker said that all the signals he usually uses to pinpoint a rally were in place.
"Everything I need to see for a bottom is there. Valuations look cheap and you often get this kind of high intra-day volatility at a turning point," he said.
"All the pieces are in place for a rally in the first quarter. The first stage of the bull market will be quite strong and be followed by a long period of consolidation. In the long run the market could return to its peak [6,930 in December 1999] but it could take quite some time."
He would buy a basket of UK bank stocks at current levels, including those bailed out by the taxpayer – Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds TSB and Hali-fax Bank of Scotland.
He said: "Sentiment has become extreme and governments have strengthened their balance sheets. One or two may have to raise additional capital, but that is why you should own a basket."
On commercial property, he said that yields of more than 4 percentage points above Bank rate more than compensated for the risk that some tenants might go bust.
Central to Bolton's optimism is his view that while the recession will be as bad as during the 1980s and 1990s, it will not be as severe as the 1930s.
"The economy and unemployment are going to get worse but markets tend to bottom six to 12 months before the economy. It is the worst financial crisis I have ever experienced, but governments are doing more than I have ever seen them do before," he said.
Bolton expects next year's rally to be led by financial stocks and so-called consumer cyclicals such as retailers.
"Commodity and mining shares were the main players of the last bull market and you don't find that what has led the last bull market leads the next one," he said.
Bolton does not always get it right – he first said he saw value in the markets at the end of September. The Footsie then fell a further 14%.
"I wasn't going to get right the week or the month, but I hope I got the right quarter. I made some more personal investments in October and again in November," he said.

[midas] 12/12/2008 08:31

Nationwide eyes a £6bn lending target for home loans
By Simon Duke
Last updated at 12:02 AM on 12th December 2008

The Nationwide Building Society is preparing a full-blooded assault on the mortgage market next year.

As HBOS awaits a pivotal shareholder vote today, Britain's second biggest mortgage group is considering making a public pledge to increase lending in 2009.

The plan would see the Nationwide commit up to £6bn in extra cash to the moribund home loans market, City sources said.

The net lending promise echoes an earlier move by High Street rival HSBC, which will raise its UK mortgage fund by 20 per cent to £15billion next year.

Both HSBC and Nationwide believe the public gestures could help entice first-time buyers back into the market.

The absence of new homeowners has exacerbated the property meltdown. Still, the mortgage market is likely to shrink next year as HBOS and Nat West owner Royal Bank of Scotland repair their broken finances.

Despite losing money on toxic assets linked to US home loans, Nationwide has not had to tap into the government's bank rescue scheme to boost its cash buffers.

Instead, the building society plans to sell £500million worth of so-called permanent interest-bearing shares early next year.

[midas] 10/12/2008 12:59

Richaims - you are very welcome sir !

[richaims] 10/12/2008 11:11

midas

Thank you

rich

[midas] 10/12/2008 10:18

Richaims - As requested

[richaims] 09/12/2008 21:55

midas

What was the source of your post 36 and can you provide a link please ?

rich

[midas] 09/12/2008 12:23

Elsewhere in the regional portfolio, Barratt Developments and Bellway were both given buy ratings by Arbuthnot Securities, who gave the two house builders price targets of 157p and 686p respectively.

Barratt Developments closed 4.25p higher at 55p and Bellway rose 37p to 557.5p.