Today's Questor is supposed to have an article on BWY as a buy, written by Richard Evans, but I can't find it; it is online. can somebody please copy it here, thank you |
Bellway. Demand slowing and another £346.2m for cladding/safety improvements.
House price inflation was just above cost inflation but house prices are expected to fall, so margins are likely to be squeezed.
On top of demand falling.
Bellway sees post-Grenfell building safety bill hit £514m
"Bellway said construction cost inflation was approaching 10% during the year which was offset by house price inflation." |
 Bellway plc posted solid prelims for FY22 this morning. Total revenue rose by 13.3% to a new record £3,536.8 million, housing completions grew by 10.5% and ahead of target to a record 11,198 homes. Underlying profit before taxation rose by 22.5% to £650.4 million, underlying EPS was up 19.9% to 420.8p. The balance sheet is resilient with year-end net cash of £245.3 million and proposed total dividend per share growth of 19.1% to 140.0p, representing dividend cover of 3.0 times underlying earnings. The business is starting to see demand moderate with weekly reservations down 12.4% at 191 per week in the 9 weeks since 1st August. Valuation is very attractive with forward PE ratio at 4.9x and dividend yield over 7.2%. The macro environment and higher interest rates are the obvious cloud, the UK is probably already in recession which could last through most of next year as well. BWY is a solid UK home builder already at an attractive price, but there is no rush to buy. Monitor for now...
...from WealthOracle
hxxps://wealthoracle.co.uk/detailed-result-full/BWY/212 |
Wow, very nice results, recent trading barely impacted and almost 20% dividend increase! |
What would the dividend be tomorrow, any guesses |
For the record a couple of days back I did receive a very clear email from IR saying that for value preservation/creation reasons we will not be seeing buy backs in the foreseeable future.
Let us see what Tuesday week's prelims announcement brings.
I see that the volume of trades in September was the 2nd highest over the last 12 months and that October volume is high. I also went through all the trades of today. I saw that there was one for £2m+ and the next highest was £70k |
A few days back I wrote to IR asking them what they have said publicly about buy backs but no surprise have heard nothing.
I also pointed out that they ignored their private shareholders ie no IMC type presentations and an AGM on Newcastle-fair enough-but first thing in the morning at 830.
The percentage of shares hely by people over 3pc is only 12pc and as 2 of these are Vanguard and Blackrock it may be tracker fund money. |
Seriously?That's crazy.Good luck getting something |
from = telegraph newspaper
"as a first time buyer my 4.5% mortgage offer has just been withdrawn
and replaced with 10.5% mortgage offer,"
edit, one developer says house of commons statement of the 23/9 has
"literally killed the housing market stone dead" |
Well done to those who bought sub 1600 this morning and you will have done a good trade.
No idea why they are doing a share but back with their net cash position and NAV of 2779p on the interims date of 31.1.22.
I assume they have authority at their AGM.
On an annualised eps of in H1 FY 21/22 we are on a pe of just over 4x even after the end of day rally which they like BDEV and TW. enjoyed.
Reminded myself that ROCE was 19.8 pc in H1 FY21/22.
My issue is that I am in a bit of a funk as not sure if things have settled down :for example the volatility vortex in the US bond market. |
Bring back the Bell family to Bellway. We are rudderless without our mighty founders' genes in the boardroom. |
Similar price/book to 2008/2009. 45% discount |
Want back in here but at what price! |
new low where is support? |
Haha this might even finish blue. Loving this volatility |
some house price stats, open to discussion
rises between 71/72/73 65%
falls in 74/76 around 10/15%
rises 86/89 around 35%
1990 mortgage rate up to 16%
falls 90/94 around 40% (docklands)
lowest m/rates 0.18% over base 07 & .25% 2016
08/2013 average falls around 20/30%
13/2022 average rises between 25%/40%
all depending on location (excluding devon cornwall s/east)
22/25 estimated/average falls 6/7% per yr
est,recovery starts 25/27 on a reasonable inflation rate,
Lawsons budget of 87 helped cause the docklands spike
most of the investors were chinese, when prices started to fall in 89/90
most walked away losing their 10% deposits, but liability for full payment price remained,
the same is happening now in China on there own patch,
the low of 94 to present day has seen a 300% rise around Tower Bridge
the UK covid stamp duty holiday was a disaster costing taxpayers
5billion, and part cause of present inflation, tradesmens rates will cripple the market
why are all the big builders struggling in OZ
july seems to be the peak of this crazy housing boom, mainly by those
from HK, whilst the brits find it impossible to get on prop, ladder
dyor
we need a monthly mortgage equity release scheme given out on a monthly basis
equivalent to the cost of average energy bill, in turn making more funds available to help
businesses survive,
ie aqua glass energy bill jumps from 17k last yr to 170k next yr
1/9 Resolution Foundation says average family needs extra £3k a yr for energy bills
over 3yrs thats less than total of 10k via equity release to get through the worst? |
That my price target .but don't forget they have land bank that worth few bob so I like to some near £40 |
Using net debt of 245m, land creditors of 395m and adjusted gearing of 4%, I get total equity of 3,750m or £30.40 per share. |
Might increase divi |
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