Bbgi Global Infrastructure Share Discussion Threads

[wassapper] 14/1/2025 14:08

same as GBP v USD :-)

[panshanger1] 10/1/2025 16:18

52 week low here

[catch007] 10/1/2025 10:11

I have bought another tranche at circa 121p which now meets my target holding for BBGI. It is a main income play for my portfolio and the current price seems mismatched against overall risk profile. I note HICL & INPP (I hold both) have also seen negative market sentiment. Sector currently well out of favour given the incompetent UK financial mismanagement and rising bond yields however I see it as an excellent opportunity to add at present as dividend income is robust.

[dope007] 08/1/2025 15:44

First purchase made. Good yield and a generous discount to NAV

[fabius1] 27/12/2024 14:28

I think Treasuries are looking for a bottom, at least, for now.

[8w] 27/12/2024 13:28

The market may be considering the yield on a gilt is going to rise. Hence the price on these and many other bond like IT's has been relentlessly down.

[spectoacc] 25/12/2024 20:31

Some PFI outcome uncertainty, but getting tempted to buy back in with a decent chunk of SIPP, having last sold out around 1.35.

..Which prefer sounding too clever, some of the proceeds went into FGEN at c.85p (now nearer 70p).

The margin over Gilts - let alone over Linkers - just seems too high here. Realistically it ought to be a combination of those two to compare against, and can easily get to a 400-500bps margin, which seems a bit crazy.

[pdt] 23/12/2024 16:53

I am surprised this company is not more popular.

Macroeconomic conditions include interest rates staying higher for longer, inflation remaining sticky and zero growth or recession on the horizon. The company has no debt, good inflation linkage, a 2025 yield of around 7%. Good creditworthy customers in the form of government bodies with good geographic spread and across infrastructure assets classes of schools, hospitals, roads, fire stations etc

The dividend is well covered at around 1.4 times which suggests they may have surplus cash for buybacks. They said they could grow the dividend for 14 years without adding any new investments. There is no external manager keeping costs low. And trades at a discount to NAV of around 18%.

Perhaps I am missing something? I have added and is now about 5% of my portfolio.

[dope007] 23/12/2024 12:28

Looking at safeish decent yield stocks/prefs/bonds and this has popped up on my list. Chart doesn't look great but they are at a discount to NAV and seem a solid pair of hands.

More drift expected possibly but tempted to have a nibble here and add further, although I may let the usual santa rally to get out of the way first in the hope a lower price in early Jan

[catch007] 22/12/2024 08:10

Added top ups to my Sipp & ISA this week £1.23 & £1.22 seemed to be excellent value.

[topvest] 24/9/2024 12:19

Yes, 10 year around 4% seems the new normal. Could possibly go much lower (maybe as low as 2%) if we get a global recession I suppose. Sentiment on BBGI should dramatically improve once short-term and 2 year rates drop to low levels. Little risk of a negative return on BBGI at this price, in my view, given the secure 6.5% yield. My thesis is 8-10% annual return likelihood. Worst-case probably 5%. Not bad. Much better than renewables in my view, where electricity prices could either jump or crash. Probably the latter if there is a global recession.

[hindsight] 24/9/2024 12:04

Think the budget will show the direction of travel.
If tax rises do most of the heavy lifting then low rates likely (cgt, iht, pension, council tax changes will slow money velocity), or if its changes to borrowing calculations (which Reeves now seems to talk of) do the heavy lifting then we wont. The 10 year has risen to 4% from 3.75%

[topvest] 24/9/2024 11:46

All good points. Ultimately, I think markets will be driven by the US. I don't buy a this time is different argument, with US markets x2 GDP, a 795 day yield curve inversion (now ended)and money supply effectively negative since July 2022. Might be worth listening to Steve Hanke. He calls it the Fed spin room. Of course, they never talk about their balance sheet and money supply....as it would point the finger at their own errors! I think he has it spot on. In 6 months or so, we will know whether or not the US is heading for the rocks.

[spectoacc] 24/9/2024 11:24

A lot of people think we're in for one last hurrah of that - US debt load suggests so - but I'm not so sure, I think they over-did QE in size & scope & may not go back there.

Feels like 3% is the new 2% for inflation, & that may even become explicit - it's the way out of the debt after all (perhaps less so for c.1/4 index-linked UK).

My concern is how quickly Labour are losing control of wage settlements - madness to give up instantly, without a fight, and nurses probably rightly wanting more. Wouldn't take much for inflation to print at say 4%, 5% again, in which case, who wouldn't strike for that or more?

Flipside is recession, dire China, chronically low oil.

Flipside of that is Milliband madness, climate change.

BBGI, of course, has some inflation protection built in.

[topvest] 24/9/2024 11:20

For what its worth, I see short-term rates falling as we head into a global recession, but probably going up again mid-term as the Cental banks turn on the inevitable money printing madness yet again.

[spectoacc] 24/9/2024 11:07

@nickelmer - AV pref over-priced IMO, due to demand from retail for something with a more certain yield/capital value (not been so good on the latter mind).

BBGI isn't as certain - but as @topvest says, looks one of the better ones around IMO. I see rates staying higher, more so with R Reeves/Labour in charge.

[topvest] 24/9/2024 10:46

I keep nibbling away at these. It's my largest alternatives position. Its a really high quality investment company, on an unwarranted discount. Can see these trading at a premium again when rates drop off. Happy to hold for a long time.

[nickelmer] 16/9/2024 06:10

I hold BBGi, for the 8.4p dividend, shares currently £1.31

I also hold aviva 8.75% prefs, which pay a fixed amount, so no increase over time, they pay an 8.75p dividend, slightly higher than BBGi yet the shares are £1.44

Can anyone explain why a fixed income share paying virtually the same dividend is valued some 10% more than a share that offers dividend growth potential, it does not make sense to me...

[spectoacc] 13/9/2024 14:43

Both valid points, thanks.

I don't put anything past Reeves tho - fluffing growth (return to austerity), fluffing keeping the wealthy here and paying taxes, fluffed Winter Fuel Payment withdrawal (albeit the right thing to do), lots of uncertainty, no clear policies.

Guess with maturing PFI, it's less political and more what happens to it. BBGI plenty big enough to return cash and still keep going.

Haldene makes a good point about the spending review being potentially as important as the Budget (albeit that depends what actually happens in the Budget - might RR be deterred post-Winter Fuel fiasco?).

BBGI would be higher than here without recent XD of course.

[hindsight] 13/9/2024 13:01

spectoacc, thought best to reply to you here re PFIs
Dont forget bbgi is 30% UK rather than 70% in most others like INPP. Also Reeves needs private capital, as her former college Haldane points out, so any attack on old PFIs would be rather silly

[spectoacc] 05/9/2024 13:14

Really strong move on XD. Having previously top-sliced, am now out - good luck holders.

[williamcooper104] 29/8/2024 09:58

Which is one of the big advantages infra has over commercial property CRE loans are 3-7 years with mega refi risk and usually horrible LTV/margin like call risk

[williamcooper104] 29/8/2024 09:13

It's unleveraged at the hold co All of the assets are of course hugely leveraged - though with lower risk project finance leverage - eg minimal interest rate/refi/covenant trigger risk