Bbgi Global Infrastructure Share Discussion Threads

[williamcooper104] 08/10/2023 19:52

The best long term return comes from inflation being persistently higher That will mean you won't get a quick re-rating of the sp/NAV but you will make a much greater long term return I've held to greater or lesser extents , HICL, INPP and BBGI since IPO (currently full position on BBGI/INPP with only a small HICL holding - will add to HICL if it either gets cheaper or rights Anglia water)

[williamcooper104] 08/10/2023 19:50

Yep - it's written down to zero But that's a great thing as it means there's no residual value risk Yes it's a declining asset, but the DCF valuation captures that, and our return is the discount rate used in that valuation less the management costs as adjusted for the current share price discount to NAV That's far better than most commerical property that is full of RV risk It's also worth noting that the valuations assume that inflation drops like a stone; if it is higher for longer then that's a lot extra cashflows not in the current DCF

[nexusltd] 08/10/2023 19:27

I’m interested in understanding the financial workings of BBGI’s “availability” contracts. The assets in which BBGI invests have a concession period. Does the asset have a residual capital value which is paid to BBGI at the end of the concession, or is the asset value written down to zero?

Edit: I think I have my answer here: hxxps://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/botcontract.asp
The asset reverts to the concessioner fully written down, no payment is due.

[williamcooper104] 08/10/2023 16:47

Indeed - and the discount rate didn't collapse as much as yields fell HICL have been selling mature PFI assets recently at a little above their last balance sheet value; which given recent rise in gilts suggests they were under valued at last balance sheet date For me I'm very happy here as there's next to no interest rate risk to cashflows and so what if the capital value is a little volatile- would rather the divi yield with growth over a gilt

[topvest] 08/10/2023 16:42

Peak discount rate was 8.6% in Dec 2009, pre-IPO, as per slide 22 of the interims.

[williamcooper104] 08/10/2023 15:59

Yep it shouldn't; of HICL and INPP these are both the lower risk with the greater divi growth

[topvest] 08/10/2023 14:53

Yes, maybe a c8% discount rate versus 7.2% now? Logically, it shouldn't go any higher than 8-8.5% given the low risk of these assets, in my view.

[williamcooper104] 08/10/2023 13:25

Risk spreads tend to come in as rates rise Likewise we saw spreads blow out as rates fell So it's not a linear relationship BBGI is growing its divided at quite the clip and has virtually no RCF borrowings You're yield in a couple of years is higher than if you're holding HICL

[topvest] 08/10/2023 12:53

I think the yield is attractive now, but could go above 7% soon. Looking at the sensitivies, the NAV is probably only c135-140p given that long-term risk free discount rates are up c1% since June (possibly with some compensating reduced risk premium) without any offsetting inflation increase. A year ago buying a fairly well inflation protected safe dividend yield starting at 6.5% for 20 year cash flows would have been an unbeatable proposition, but now its not of much interest. This is the last infrastructure fund that I want to take a long-term starter position. I'm buying initial stakes and then will add more when the chart starts looking more positive. Surely 7% growing at 6% (and 3.4% historically) is attractive for such a low risk portfolio? Its more attractive than a short-dated bond, but buyers are put off by the recent capital losses.

For what its worth I think we are c6m from the end point of market capitulation. These will do much better as rates are lowered when central bankers panic - a global recession is looking more and more likely in 2024.

[sogoesit] 22/6/2023 11:03

Any views on what trailing yield would be attractive to enter this?
12%???

[pherrom] 19/6/2023 19:07

Yes thanks, same with HICL.

[pherrom] 19/6/2023 17:22

Any ideas why the price is collapsing?

[winsome] 30/3/2023 17:52

What a boring and predictable company to invest in. Nice results. I've add more to my portfolio.

[rik shaw] 30/3/2023 07:35

Results include decent increase in dividend targets 2023 7.93pps(+6%), 2024 8.4 (+6%)as well as 6.7% NAV increase in the year.

[rik shaw] 31/8/2022 15:27

Half year report
NAV per share up 6.5%

[rik shaw] 17/2/2022 08:11

Details of the second interim dividend are as follows:
Dividend per share:3.665 pence
Ex-Dividend date: 24 February 2022
Dividend Record date: 25 February 2022
Payment date/Allotment of scrip dividend shares: 7 April 2022

[winsome] 08/2/2022 14:16

Rik, I agree but their future receipts are linked to inflation so the div should rise faster than usual, which should underpin the share price We should expect the next dividend to be declared later this week with ex-date next week.

[rik shaw] 07/2/2022 18:03

What counts is inflation over the life of their investments not just short term and any increase in NAV linked to assumption for inflation may well be offset by adjustment to the discount rate assumption.

[winsome] 29/12/2021 16:44

If inflation hits 5 to 7% around the major economies that BBGI invests in we are going to see a huge jump in NAV in 2022.

[williamcooper104] 11/10/2021 21:27

Any ideas as to why the pop today

[masurenguy] 21/3/2021 10:49

MIDAS SHARE TIPS: Across the world, governments are pledging to spend more on infrastructure - they could do with help from the private sector, companies such as BBGI
FINANCIAL MAIL ON SUNDAY, 20 March 2021

BBGI, a global infrastructure business, specialising in essential assets such as roads, schools, hospitals, fire and police stations. The stock is £1.66 and should enjoy steady gains over the coming years, alongside generous dividends. Joint chief executives Duncan Ball and Frank Schramm report annual results this week and are expected to announce strong figures, alongside a target dividend for 2021 of 7.33p, putting the shares on a yield of 4.36%.

[spoole5] 11/12/2020 12:27

Premium a bit rich here now

[winsome] 28/8/2020 09:28

Indeed, Rik Shaw. I've put 4% of my portfolio into BBGI last year and its been rock solid. Compounding divs and uplifts in share price will outperform the FT250 easily over next 5 yrs.

[rik shaw] 28/8/2020 07:37

Surely dull is good in the current climate. Not sure what you expect from an infrastructure fund.
'No material adverse operational or financial impact related to the Covid-19 pandemic with cash receipts ahead of business plan'