Bayfield Share Discussion Threads

[triples] 22/9/2012 10:58

Recent management PR style appears to be longish periods of silence supported by positive RNSs. I expect the same this week.

[stef77] 22/9/2012 09:28

thanks luminoso, I don't think that will happen neither, this would be the worst case scenario, Bayfield is not in distress anyway and it's assets are worth at least 60p a share. the takeover panel rules suggest an independent panel would be appointed to value the co's assets, and if that's the worst case scenario, I can live with that!
personally, I have 99% faith in this management. I say 99 because I don't have 100% in anything, not even myself! not even mentioning my wife's percentage:)
the reason is, I tried to think of the worst possible outcome of this offer period, and I can't see any other than Beh being taken private.( any other suggestions?) I always try to consider the downside first with my investments.
I also de risked ,( like many I believe ) my stake below 20p taking some profits in the run up to the rns. not much though,but it is the sensible thing to do. To be honest, I thought we'll have a pullback in the mid to low 20's and I would deff buy some more at that level.
Providing the next rns is at least positive with improving production and ok finances(which is very likely) the share price will keep rising imo. a farm out with a third party especially with a cash payout to beh would send the shares to 60p in no time. a sale would be totally orgasmic.
I shall read the next rns very carefully, and if it is at least positive I will buy even more, for a holder with a medium to long term view like me, it's worth adding at these levels imo, especially on a pullback to mid 20's. one very important factor to consider is that this money printing presses from central banks is going to cause inflation and will "force" investors into energy stocks / will improve sentiment towards all oilers and at some point we will find ourselves at the other extreme of the valuation irrationality. isn't that best time to sell??!
investors that jump off the boat at the first wobble might find themselves sitting in mr Hatcher's corner:) remember him?

[luminoso] 21/9/2012 20:18

stef77

I have had the experience of holding shares in a company, which was taken private by its principal stake holder/management/BOD at a cheap price. The company was Petrolatina (PELE was ticker). It happened earlier this year. It has absolutely no similarities - so far - with the history of BEH, IMO !
Won't go into details here but there was an active board on advfn.
The BEH management/BOD have a different pedigree and IMO much more integrity.

[mojomonkey] 21/9/2012 19:59

PJ, no not showing your age! I can well remember those adverts, I just did not make the connection.

Aye them were the days................Living in a shoe box and walking 50 miles te school barefoot!

[triples] 21/9/2012 19:35

If the management were buying the company, they won't be bothered about a paper loss.

[pj 1] 21/9/2012 19:13

triples, wouldn't it be an e.g.30% above the average share price over a determined period?

[petersmith6] 21/9/2012 19:11

30% premium would only give 38p at the moment and i cant see the BOD taking a huge loss on there hard earnd cash.

[triples] 21/9/2012 19:06

Traditionally, there's about a 30% premium for takeovers, but in this case, given how much the management already own, that premium may not need be so high.

[pj 1] 21/9/2012 19:05

Mojo, showing my age, remember the Mash gets Smashed advert from the 70's?

I believe any trades from Robots (trading desks) show as AT's, as well as Broker etc.

[stef77] 21/9/2012 19:01

good point ultrapunch, I agree the fantastic rise last week reflected mainly the ultracheap valuation Bayfield was trading at. it's good to see some consolidation now and I'm surprised to be honest how well the share price kept up.
one thing that crossed my mind many times is what if the management would try to take it private, can they just buy it at the mmarket price or would they have to pay a premium, has anyone got any info/experience on that?

[mojomonkey] 21/9/2012 17:36

You have lost me PJ, little knives?

[pj 1] 21/9/2012 17:12

''First, we prod them with our little knives, then we smash them all to bits...''

Automated Trades?

[mojomonkey] 21/9/2012 17:06

Beagle/Ultra, these "AT" trades I see on L2 that are the type that change the shares share price who or what does these, can PIs do them or is it just brokers and if brokers can they all do them or is it just "Members of The London Stock Exchange"

[ultrapunch] 21/9/2012 16:41

That's your opinion, the_beagle and you are, of course, perfectly entitled to it. Personally I'm always wary of conspiracy theories. Of course the internet is awash with them these days. According to some people every action taken in the world these days is part of a giant conspiracy, usually involving the CIA and the Jews!! lol.

For what it's worth a bullish candlestick pattern for BEH has developed today. With the results due next week I see a strong recovery in the share price on monday even if an RNS is not issued. Of course we could get an RNS monday!!

EDIT. I've got no evidence that the CIA, or the Jews for that matter, are selling small amounts to hold back the BEH share price in order to make a spread bet killing next week!! lol.

[the_beagle] 21/9/2012 16:26

Most of the selling has been AT trades, often one after the other, with the sole aim of getting the price down. Often I believe this is done to enable a large spread bet buy to go through at as low a price as possible.

A good 100k buy now.

[petersmith6] 21/9/2012 15:22

tactical selling?maybe...but there are investors out there who are more than happy to make10 or20 % and move on...ok they may mis the odd killing but who would complaine about 10 or 20% a day or week.some make there money from a high churne.

[ultrapunch] 21/9/2012 14:19

the_beagle. Who are these "powers that be"?!

Look we doubled in a couple of weeks on some big buying. That has dried up. The buyers have finished their short buying spree. You are bound to get some profit taking after such a big rise. You will also have some buyers as well, but at the moment the small sellers are outnumbering the small buyers. There is no great conspiracy by the "powers that be" to hold down the share price

BEH was very undervalued a few weeks ago. A big seller by the name of Hatcher was helping to keep the share price depressed. Once that cleared the big buys came in driving up the share price in the knowledge that news was due soon (the interims) and the 8.5 forms kept coming. The share price is now consolidating ahead of news next week as we will undoubtably get the interims next week. They are already pretty late compared with almost all companies whose half year ends on the 30th June.

Which way the share price goes from here depends on the news issued with the interims. Good news and it will probably rise, any unexpectedly bad news and it will probably go down. I think the big buying (or selling) will take place on the day the interims RNS is issued. It should include an update on any offers received and whether discussions are ongoing.

I think the buying last week was driven by the fact that BEH was very undervalued, good news was expected soon and the Hatcher overhang was clearing. That buying will only start again after the next news if investors like it. At the moment BEH is probably still undervalued in the absence of a bid. However currently it is nowhere near as undervalued as it was 2 weeks ago.

[socktrade1] 21/9/2012 14:00

Triples, why do you think the latter, i.e 40-45p, there arent any more big buys that were taking place last week, but there havent been alot of big sells recently so those big buyers are still holding i guess?

[triples] 21/9/2012 13:51

the latter, imho

[socktrade1] 21/9/2012 13:45

my username was meant to be stocktrade but i made a typing error and cant be bothered to change it hence "socktrade" What do you guys think of a 40-45p target pre news? are we on the way down to sub 20p or are we having a breather before rising sharply to 40p plus

[luminoso] 21/9/2012 11:20

I don't watch trades daily but, if I recall correctly, the recent spike was on high volumes. The current drift down is on fairly small volume and consistent with a bit of profit taking. So, no cause for concern, IMO.

[the_beagle] 21/9/2012 08:46

I get the feeling that the powers that be want to take us lower through small tactical selling. I think they sense there are a few punters here getting a bit twitchy and ready to supply cheap shares to the big boys.

[pj 1] 21/9/2012 07:50

Ultra.......lets hope so..!! :-))

[ultrapunch] 20/9/2012 23:44

PJ1. A couple of examples. MAGP issued their interims on the 10th September. MTA in August. Both have half years ending on 30th June.

I can understand BEH's interims being issued rather late last year because they had only recently listed. I think this years interims are being issued relatively late because there is obviously some kind of corporate action going on in the background.

[triples] 20/9/2012 23:15

I was selling various shares to get cash for other cheapies in today's sales, but my Bayfield shares are hallowed and stayed completed untouched.

I'm looking forward to the update this week or early next.