Bayfield Share Discussion Threads

[mojomonkey] 15/9/2012 10:11

Black rock have about 17% too dont they so a lot controlled by people/ IIs that paid 60p just over a year ago. No way would they sell for less than 60p

I have a hunch that a deal with Repsol, who are full of money, will see the funding sorted for the next 4 Expo wells next year, thoughts?

ETA Ultra you have thanked Blad for a link on here yesterday when I think you should be thanking Molokai and by the way if you had not already guessed I am Blad on LSE

[stef77] 15/9/2012 10:05

what a week that was guys, very impressive but totally just. I personally think the re-rating will continue for several reasons, and first and most important one imo is the management. they proved they can do it once(burren) and they should be motivated to do so again, considering the massive stake they have in the co. it works out to 50.18% according to my calculations and they effectively control it.
a pannikov 17.91%
f sullivan 16.87%
b thurley 11.53%
mr&mrs gill 2.25%
mr giannatos 1.62%
page 5 of the admission doc states :to date(july 2011), directors, management and related parties have invested $47.5 millions into Bayfield.
today's market cap is £61.2 mil or $98.6 millions.
that means the management's stake at 50% is worth $49.3 millions. So the current valuation of £0.28/share would barely give them the money back if they were to sell. that way I think any sale below that price will not happen.
valuation is still very low relative to similar companies, prospectivity of the galeota license hasn't changed and the chance of a farm out or sale is still very high.
even if a sale doesn't materialise the co's fundamentals are very strong and mr bernanke's unlimited money printing at a rate of $40 billions/month we all know what that does to the oil price. and as long as Bayfield keeps ramping up production and the oil price stays high the happy days are here to stay!!

[oilbuy] 15/9/2012 09:05

The is old news but interesting to see what Repsol paid BP for 3 blocks in 2005.




Oilbuy

[oilbuy] 15/9/2012 08:44

The Government of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago announced a deepwater competitive bid round for six offshore blocks in the East Coast Marine Area and Trinidad and Tobago Deep Atlantic Area earlier this year. The bid round opened April 5, 2012 and the deadline is September 4, 2012.



Regards

Oilbuy

[oilbuy] 14/9/2012 23:27

A little old. Apologies if this has been posted before but a good read !



Oilbuy

[ultrapunch] 14/9/2012 21:57

molokai
Posts: 735
Answer
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 30.00
BladToday 15:03

Compliments of RichTheNewbie on rrl, who is more organised than me.



The above, posted on the lse bb, gives BEH production figures for the 7 months from Jan to July

[oilbuy] 14/9/2012 18:39

Here is another Chris Martin ?

[retsius] 14/9/2012 17:44

Thanks for comments guys.
I feel with the price spike there has to be something brewing.

[ultrapunch] 14/9/2012 17:44

Well Mojomonkey the Martins had 2.063m shares before yesterday. Just under 1%.

I noticed there are a celebrity Mr & Mrs Christopher Martin. Chris Martin is in a famous pop group called COLDPLAY by all accounts. I'm told they were top billing at Sunday's ParaOlympics closing ceremony. Mrs Christopher Martin? None other than famous actress Gwyneth Paltrow!! Have we celebrity shareholders on the BEH share register, by any chance?

£200k would be spare change to the likes of them!!

[mojomonkey] 14/9/2012 17:30

Thinking the same myself Ultra, Orient said yesterday he thought someone was buying big time if I recall correct. Seymour Pierce also bought over a million and sold about the same, take out those 2 and the volume was small really.

Oilbuy nice purchase, should easily double that in the short term

[ultrapunch] 14/9/2012 17:22

Yes oilbuy, but that 679k purchase by the Martins yesterday was undoubtably the reason for the sharp rise yesterday. They were probably buying throughout the day. Have they finished buying? If so and we get some profit taking on monday, without someone else like the Martins mopping up BEH shares, or news, the share price is likely to fall back on monday. Then your timing wont look so hot, matey!!

[oilbuy] 14/9/2012 17:10

I got 75k yesterday for 28.5 HAHA LOL

[ultrapunch] 14/9/2012 16:56

Have a look at todays RNS issued at 3.04pm, retsius.

They bought 679,000 BEH yesterday at 29.3p. That's £200,000!! They must have developed a liking for BEH. Who are they. Haven't a clue, but if you google their names you might find out.

[mojomonkey] 14/9/2012 16:51

There is a holding RNS about them, they have bought about 650K shares to add to the large quantity (2million) they already owned. Averaging down perhaps?

[retsius] 14/9/2012 16:44

price rose about 30% in the week. Not much of a pullback. Hopefully onwards and upwards next week.

the _beagle

Who are the Martins? Is there any significance in the statement?

[triples] 14/9/2012 16:06

the_beagle

Whatever they know, they didn't know it very early ... they weren't in at 16p unlike some.

[mojomonkey] 14/9/2012 15:34

The share price is holding up well for a Friday afternoon, got to be in it to win it!

Might even get a late rise as L2 looks healthy

[the_beagle] 14/9/2012 15:23

Welcome to BEH Mr and Mrs Christopher Martin. What do you know?

[pj 1] 14/9/2012 12:31

Ultra, fair comments thank you

[cisk] 14/9/2012 12:19

Hi Mojo - just been watching from afar and enjoying the price appreciation, tucking a few away but it's one of my smaller oilers (top spot occupied by Afren).

Now you mention it I do remember a weather-related impact. let's just hope that the next update brings us positive news...

[ultrapunch] 14/9/2012 12:02

PJ 1 14 Sep'12 - 10:31 - 791 of 799


Are BEH in any position to dictate any Sale price?

I think they are PJ 1. I was looking back at the Seymour Pierce broker note on BEH from February. They highlighted the price RRL paid for their onshore 2P in Trinidad back in 2011. Applying a discount to that figure because BEH's 2P is offshore they arrived at a valuation figure of circa US$8 per bbl for BEH's Trintes 2P. That's £5 per bbl. Multiply that by the current 2P of 19MMbbls for Trintes and you get £95m. That's equivalent to 44p per share. I think the Trintes field is worth a lot more than 44p to a potential bidder especially since that Trintes 2P is capable of significant increase with the 4 well development program ongoing (1 of those wells is already producing 536bopd). Add in 16p per share (£35m) for the Galeota prospects, which seems cheap since EG8 has already made a discovery and you end up at 60p per share. That ignores any potential value to the S.African interests. Will they receive a bid? I think so. Repsol, for starters, seem to be keen on the Trinidad region. I can see BEH being taken over for a lot more than 60p, if it receives a bid. I think Trintes is worth at least 60p on it's own to a bidder.

The WTI crude price is staying high. The quantitative easing announced yesterday should help the USA economy recover which is obviously key in keeping WTI high.

The only major negative I can see is though Petrotrin have agreed that BEH don't have to complete the 7 well Galeota program until March 2015 (2 wells already drilled and 1 to spud this year) as far as I can tell they have to complete the remaining 4 wells in 2013 as per their contract for the Gorilla 111 rig. Those 4 wells will cost US$50m which BEH don't have at the moment. We don't know what penalty clauses are contained in that contract. Hence BEH need to either negotiate an extension to the contract and then depend on revenues earned from the Trintes field to pay for the 4 wells OR they need to raise finance such as via a placing OR something like a farm in OR they can agree to be taken over if they receive a suitable bid.

The BEH BoD is not over a barrel yet. The WTI price is high so they are earning a good price for their oil. So yes I think the BoD are in a good enough position to hold out (or dictate) a good takeover price, if they receive one.

[ultrapunch] 14/9/2012 11:33

I looked back at the chart when the problems with Alpha platform were first mentioned in an RNS, Mojomonkey. It was in the RNS, dated 27/1/12, annoucing the spud of EG8. The share price did decline from 50p to 45p within the next few days. However that news could have already leaked to the market since the share price had been weak since the start of 2012.

[divinausa1] 14/9/2012 11:03

divinausa1
13 Sep'12 - 23:35 - 776 of 796 edit

ultrapunch
13 Sep'12 - 18:37 - 772 of 775

I'm going to put it on my watch list "the stinger" and do a bit of background reading. Many thanks for mantioning it. I'll see what happens to the chart over the coming weeks.
--------------------

there is 4 oil and gas juniors i have bought into recently

BEH
AUL
UEN
PTR

they will all at least double(BEH already has, UEN is getting there AUL and PTR not taken off yet)tehy are all trading below any realistic valuation by a mile. They are all producers with good potential to increase reserves. Add to that that they are all takeover targets dyr
=============================

UEN up 17% this am....

PTR And AUL will have their day too

[mojomonkey] 14/9/2012 11:02

Nice post Cisk, long time no see!

I seem to remember though that when the Alpha platform was said to be uneconomic to repair it was in a RNS and it had no effect on the share price The main delay in raising the bopd was bad weather, they couldn't get men out to the various platforms for a few months. Well not as often as they wanted, that caused their projections to look bad and that helped the collapse when it came.

The next RNS should be good the 3,500-4,000 bopd output possibly at the end of this year was hinted at in a news item from the T&T Government, BEH has not directly updated, I wish I still had the link to that government page, its good reading. Anyone got it?