Base Resources Share Discussion Threads

[janekane] 10/5/2022 20:47

Hi plasybryn
The word assumed covers a great deal of interpretation

regarding our future

If not Madagascar then further agreed mining contracts in Kenya or other locations in mainland Africa will be contracted over the next 3 years
Have a nice evening
Jane

[janekane] 10/5/2022 20:34

Toliara Project indicative timeline
Planned FID has been delayed due to the suspension of on-ground activities. Once fiscal terms are agreed and this suspension is lifted, there will be approximately 11 months’ work to complete prior to FID, including finalising financing, completing the land acquisition process and concluding major construction contracts. We maintain readiness to accelerate progress when conditions support.

Assumed
Jul-2022
Jun-2025 First product from MSP
Assumed
Jun-2023
Pre-FID work streams ~11 months to reach FID
Feb-2025 Mining & WCP commences

[plasybryn] 10/5/2022 07:24

It's on the Timescale slide. Hope that helps.

[janekane] 10/5/2022 05:43

Morning I missed the bit you refer to about “July” can you copy and paste it please
Thanks
Jane

[plasybryn] 09/5/2022 07:41

New presentation out on Website. Fiscal Terms for Madagascar now shown as by July. Keeping my fingers crossed for a break through.

[janekane] 02/5/2022 14:56

No your not we are all looking for a result,most importantly one that works for both us and the Madagascar people
The unfortunate part of all this debacle is the way the mining industry working Madagascar has alienated the government in the past treating land and people with contempt
The people now in charge are saying “yes we need your expertise in mining out minerals but only on fiscal terms that benefit both parties”
They will be studying the way we have benefitted the peoples surrounding our mine in Kenya Africa this will stand us in good stead
Jane

[plasybryn] 02/5/2022 13:37

Good note from Canaccord. And one from from Peel Hunt. Getting the message out - is a good thing. I hoping for progress on Madagascar by end of June? Am I being overly optimistic?

[mjneish] 30/4/2022 14:17

Base Resources (LON:BSE – Get Rating) had its price target hoisted by Canaccord Genuity Group from GBX 45 ($0.57) to GBX 50 ($0.64) in a research note issued to investors on Tuesday, Marketbeat.com reports. The firm currently has a buy rating on the stock.

Separately, Berenberg Bank reiterated a buy rating and issued a GBX 35 ($0.45) price objective on shares of Base Resources in a research note on Thursday, April 21st. Five analysts have rated the stock with a buy rating, According to MarketBeat.com, the stock presently has a consensus rating of Buy and a consensus target price of GBX 35.40 ($0.45).

[janekane] 28/4/2022 06:33

Massive investment yesterday £50625 Eyes on the ground knowledge goes a long way
Get ready for some good news over the month of May(hopefully)
Jane

[janekane] 24/4/2022 05:25

We all agree that the negotiations are a disappointment in the way they are time consuming but we must remember that the government have been treated with contempt by bigger mining companies in the past
All these commodities belong to Madagascar and we are sowing seeds for a massive growth in Madagascar’s exports via our partnership
The rub is that if the other party makes the terms of any fiscal agreement between the two of us untenable then we walk away
This is a massive project and the terms have to work economically for both parties
Getting it right now is much more important than commitments that prove impossible to forfill
Jane

[dangersimpson2] 23/4/2022 11:47

While there is a material risk that they won't have economic resources ready to exploit when Kwale stops producing, arguments that this makes the company not worth £200m miss that, at current pricing, Kwale will likely produce something like $300m of FCF before being exhausted.

Toliara, if it ever gets approved, will be partially funded by debt and partially by either that Kwale cashflow, or one of their customers will take an equity stake at the project level in return for agreed offtakes.

So this could easily look like:

$520m capex
$100m for a customer 20% equity stake at say a $500m valuation.
$100m from Base
$320m debt

This would leave c$200m of cash from Kwale that will pay corporate expenses, and development in Kenya/Tanzania, and future dividends.

Debt on phase 1 paid back in 2 years. Cashflow funded Phase 2 in year 3.

This doesn't look stretched to me.

[plasybryn] 22/4/2022 16:42

I know James Fuller is currently on holiday, but it might be worth bringing these issues to his attention when he gets back. He is such a helpful and empathic Investor Relations Manager. First class in his communication imo. It would be a shame if longterm, loyal shareholders are lost prematurely, when the way forward is within sight. Good luck marktime and thanks for your comments.

[janekane] 22/4/2022 16:33

Thanks and good luck with your future investments

[marktime1231] 22/4/2022 12:43

It is one thing being hopeful of the upside, it is another sticking to a purely positive narrative when we are now long past the time when BSE needed firm agreements to bring new revenue streams in to production. And what you wrote about "progressing well" is not what can be read in the update report, there has been another quarter of no effective progress in finding or extending prospects on continental Africa beyond H2 2024. Already on borrowed time ekeing out an extension at Kwale. All sorts of excuses why efforts are being stalled. Yes this is not unexpected given the nature and locations of business, but the consequence needs to be understood. I am not sure you or others do get it yet.

BSE are not shining a strong enough light on the fact that it will be an estimated 27 months from agreement on Toliara to first revenues. So even if BSE sign tomorrow there will be an intense period of investment, even more so if they try and accelerate the programme, all while previous sources of cash dry up. In the meantime the company has given away most of the cash pile in splendid dividends.

The carrot of a Toliara project offering 38 years production at revenue and profit levels even better than Kwale is hugely tempting. But on the balance of risk-reward this is not a £200M or 18p-per-share business anymore.

Anyway. Having tried all day yesterday to offload at around 18.5p you have convinced me more than ever to quit, so I have dumped the lot at 18p today. I have got what I was here for, taking 28% or so in dividends in just over a year, and sold around 12% ahead of purchase price.

Good luck to all of you who are going to take the chance, genuinely happy for you if the gamble were to pay off. It still might. But I am not going to risk losing my gains, quitting while ahead, which is what you are supposed to do isn't it?

[janekane] 22/4/2022 08:26

Mark thank you for your input however I must say we all know the points you make and that are quite right but with all negotiating there are going to be ups and downs
The prospecting in other areas of Africa are progressing well and could lead to further licensing to extract the minerals we mine
The life of our present operation mining can be extended but yes we know that we need to get permits and land rights to extend this further
Normal procedures in the mining industry
Madagascar has suffered from major mining companies over exploiting and not paying the correct royalties the government has now questioned the validity of these actions and as a result we are now in a situation that if we do not pay the piper the correct amount of fiscal terms then we don’t get the permission to mine
It’s their commodities we don’t o2. Them until we agree terms that are beneficial to both parties
We are still negotiating and until we reach a point when we think we will never get an agreement that suits both parties then we are still in the game
Our company is doing everything they can to enable a future in mining and development of mines in other countries
we continue with our exploration and until this process fails then we are still a very viable company
Jane

[plasybryn] 21/4/2022 13:20

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/980191/base-resources-reports-record-revenue-for-march-quarter-980191.html

[marktime1231] 21/4/2022 11:57

The good news, prices continuing to soar and swell the cash pile.

Was the net cash figure of $41M ish quoted as at 31 March including or excluding the £27M ish dividend paid on 31 March?

The bad news. Kwale production/sales slightly hampered by blah blah.

The worse news. Still no progress in the Toliara fiscal negotiations, where they note it will take about 11 months following agreement to reach financial close, and ?? before they can "accelerate" into production. Previously estimated to take at least 27 months before new revenues. Existing and extended Kwale operations will be depleted by end 2024. So ...

The distrurbing rider. Almost no progress on exploring stop gap developments in Kenya or Tanzania. So ...

Complacency, or supreme confidence that Toliara will get the green light and can be "accelerated". An increasingly risky bet.

[janekane] 21/4/2022 06:29

Morning plasybryn
In my recent communication with the company they confirmed talks were ongoing with 2 representatives employed on behalf of the Madagascar government
Jane

[plasybryn] 21/4/2022 02:45

RNS - quarterly. Madagascar - discussions continue.

[janekane] 19/4/2022 07:35

1,000,000 trade at aud 0.325c in Australia.
It’s reported in the “don’t know column “ so I suspect it’s an institution moving stock around from one of their funds to another
My thoughts are it’s a buyer from different investments institution taking a million from an other institutional seller who sold at a large premium
Jane

[plasybryn] 13/4/2022 07:45

HL missed their monthly payout date as a result of the delays which they still say wasn't their fault dispute BSE saying they were given plenty of notice of the changes - Cheque to automated payment. Yet other Brokers managed to pay on time which suggests to me the Co is right and HL is wrong. They are always reluctant to apologise or admit failings/errors which is obviously ingrained in their operating ethos.

[daemonfunds] 13/4/2022 01:10

@marktime1231: report them to the FCA and to your local MP. I'm sure they used the cash to pad their accounts over year end. Maybe report them to their auditor too.

[marktime1231] 12/4/2022 15:17

As forewarned HL are showing the BSE dividend as having been paid / credited for tax purposes to our accounts on the due date eg 31 March, but actually mine did not get paid until yesterday 11 April. Since this debacle spanned the tax year I have print-screened a record from the the income account history which clearly shows a "trade date" of 11 April versus a "settle date" of 31 March.

Whether or not HL's treatment of this for tax purposes is the correct one would be an interesting conversation to have, it would probably end with me mostly shouting down telephone.