Barclays Share Discussion Threads

[grimboyd] 13/4/2009 09:58

hillbrown - 13 Apr'09 - 10:42 - 21029 of 21031

My expectation is Dow at 6/6,500 and ftse at 3/3,400 at final capitulation by the end of the year.

---------------------------

Sensible post at last

[diku] 13/4/2009 09:53

I thought the idea of selling off Ishare was to receive cash instead of raising funds via RI/Placing to strengthen balance sheet...but they are actually lending money to the buyer and thus also taking on debt...and the real winners are obviously those Directors who are in line for bonuses with the Ishare sale...and the FSA gives the all clear...then why sell off units...too much contradicting signals coming from Barc...either they think the units up for sale are going to underform as they have already milked it during the boom years...or the buyer will probably default in the future and Barc will snap it back for a lot less...

[bailiffs] 13/4/2009 09:44

I would agree with that hillbrown

..or worse


Historically, the p/e ratios for S&P 500 constituents, are way too high. There's plenty of room for a shake out there.

[hillbrown] 13/4/2009 09:42

My expectation is Dow at 6/6,500 and ftse at 3/3,400 at final capitulation by the end of the year.

[bailiffs] 13/4/2009 09:42

Bailiffs is not saying this mad-cap dishonest rally won't continue a while longer.

What Bailiffs IS saying, is that the stock market as a whole will have to go lower eventually, unless 2 + 2 doesn't equal 4...

[smurfy2001] 13/4/2009 09:37

hillbrown, so your FTSE target would be around 3500?

[bailiffs] 13/4/2009 09:36

hillbrown - you read like a breath of fresh air on this thread!

[incorrigible] 13/4/2009 09:35

Not sure if "This rally is FALSE" - see this article from yesterday's IoS. Longview Economics is well respected and thoroughly research their statistics:



here's Longview's own website:



DYOR etc

[smurfy2001] 13/4/2009 09:35

I'm getting a hint of negative press about Barclays and the potential sell of BGI as a whole.

This smacks of desperation to me, why would Barclays now be looking to offload BGI for £7bn - £8bn?

We all know a big chunk of their revenue comes from this business, would that mean Lehmens be sold off as well?

[bailiffs] 13/4/2009 09:32

If I come to you and 'give' you £100k to do up your house. Your house will undoubtedly zoom up in in value.


..but what if you later find that, in reality, the money I have given you, is in fact stolen, or simply forged!

..but you have received it, and you have used it to pay the tradesmen who's work raised the value of your house.

What will become of you, when the 'authorities' find out, never mind me????

[hillbrown] 13/4/2009 09:30

bailiffs, agree. I have said befor I am in gold, gilts, oil and a bear fund and my only shareholding is Barc which I believe will be early out of the recovery blocks and rising very fast. Doesnt mean to say I wont do tactical CFD shorting of Barc cos I will, but strategically comfortable holding.

Have buy orders in for AV. AT 170, Pru at 250, GSK at 9.00 and BP at 4.00 but remain pragmatic and flexible about all markets and shares.

[bailiffs] 13/4/2009 09:14

The biggest problem facing investors both here and everywhere - mad, greedy, fearful or insane; is the BUDGET DEFICIT.

Do you know just how badly the US (in particular) has got itself into debt??


This rally is FALSE. It is built on BORROWED, or worse PRINTED, FICTITIOUS money. It is NOT built on genuine, honest, hard earned WEALTH.

At some point, economic reality will hit home.


Therefore, I'm happy to Short overbought positions.....WHY NOT, it's what the market NEEDS, to keep it slim and in check with reality.

[bailiffs] 13/4/2009 09:08

Good post diku. At last someone rational!



Beware of Barmy Barnie folks - he's obsessed with New Labour, for some personal reason, known only to him..

[diku] 13/4/2009 08:52

Bank of America gaining 35% in one day says there are herd speculators at play....too much action is currently being played out in the Financial sector...similar to the actions during the Tech Boom and Bust...

[gbh2] 13/4/2009 08:40

"if bank of america can gain 35% in one day i'd be wary of shorting any financials , if I did would certainly use stops."

Depends upon your time scale, if you believe that a financial institution will eventualy regain and beat its former highs then who cares if the share price drops for a while!

[lyntwyn] 13/4/2009 08:28

By MADLEN READ, AP Business Writer Madlen Read, Ap Business Writer – Sun Apr 12, 1:26 pm ET
NEW YORK – Is Wall Street still in a bear market, or beginning a bull market? Either way, it's probably still due for a major pullback.

And this week, the market's hurdle is a big one: A flood of quarterly results and outlooks from companies ranging from banks to toy sellers to computer chip makers.

Stocks have been on a tear, gaining 23 percent over five straight weeks from 12-year lows. The Dow Jones industrial average finished last week at 8,083, a two-month high.

But the market cannot go straight up forever, especially when the economy remains so uncertain.

Since 1900, whenever the stock market has risen more than 20 percent within two months, it has dropped an average of 7 percent in the ensuing month, according to JPMorgan equity analyst Thomas J. Lee. Historical averages do not always accurately predict the future, of course, but the statistic is a glaring reminder that Wall Street is still on shaky ground.

"A bear market rally looks exactly like this - very, very quick. It sucks people in," said Robert Levitt, chief investment officer of Levitt Capital Management.

[barniebear] 13/4/2009 08:21

Beware of bailiffs he is either DERANGED or a wind up merchant!!

[isis] 13/4/2009 06:49

Not any Bank either the US's largest.

[gcom2] 13/4/2009 06:37

well if bank of america can gain 35% in one day i'd be wary of shorting any financials , if I did would certainly use stops.

[mack7heknife] 13/4/2009 06:27

aye monday/tuesday looking good but a pullback is on the cards at some point after that .

[isis] 13/4/2009 06:23

I wouldn't like to be short anything at present. Tide is turning and some unexpected turnarounds have been happening in recent weeks with several stocks doubling/trebling which looked doomed for the knackers yard.
The game stops at some point - no easy money now, just empty rhetoric.

[qantas] 13/4/2009 05:56

Shorters Doomed to Failure.
Goldman Sachs to pay back early with profits.
This will be a very good week for those who are long.

[isis] 13/4/2009 05:43

April 13, 2009
Barclays fund managers set to win higher cash payouts if group sells whole of BGI
Miles Costello

Hundreds of fund managers at Barclays will scoop multimillion-pound cash windfalls if the bank completes the sale of Barclays Global Investors (BGI), its asset management arm.

Barclays, Britain's third-biggest bank, reached agreement last week on a $4.2 billion (£2.8 billion) deal to sell iShares, its booming exchange-traded funds operation, which is part of BGI, to CVC Capital Partners, the private equity group.

Completion would mean that about 200 BGI staff, who hold equity in the asset manager, will share a total payout of about £90 million in cash.

The iShares unit, which specialises in listed funds that track international equity indices, accounts for about a fifth of BGI's assets under management, which total £1 trillion.
Related Links

* Diamond set for windfall on iShares sale

* Barclays considers iShares sale

Barclays is now understood to be willing to examine offers for the whole of BGI as it seeks rival offers for iShares over the next 30 days as part of a contractual "go shop" agreement with CVC. This would dramatically increase the size of the payouts on offer.

Although Barclays has not formally put BGI on the block, it is understood to be prepared to consider approaches at the right price.

It is thought likely that BGI would attract trade buyers, rather than private equity. BGI specialises in funds that track the world's indices. A price tag of between £7 billion and £8 billion has been mooted.

Barclays Capital, the bank's investment banking arm, will manage the hunt for a better price, in an arrangement that is rare in contemporary takeovers.

Roger Jenkins, the chairman of investment banking and investment management for the Middle East at Barclays, will oversee the process. But Bob Diamond, the bank's president, who is in line for a £4.7 million windfall from the iShares sale, will not be taking part.

Almost a third of BGI is composed of actively managed funds. It also operates a securities lending arm that was not included in the CVC sale. Barclays declined to comment.

The prospect of a full BGI sale comes as the bank puts the finishing touches to a new remuneration package for its executives and other top performers at Barclays Capital.

The bank, which said in February that it had decided to overhaul its pay and bonus policy, is expected to update investors on its plans for pay and perks at its annual meeting next week.

It is likely that future bonuses will consist of more shares than cash in an effort to closely link pay and performance at a time when the City's bonus culture is under huge scrutiny. Its policy will meet guidelines set recently by the Financial Services Authority, the chief regulator.

Barclays is braced for some of its most influential investors to use the annual meeting as a platform to protest against last year's controversial capital-raising, which has led to almost a third of the bank being owned by wealthy investors in the Middle East.

After lengthy protests from City institutions that were not initially offered the same terms, Barclays has put its entire board up for re-election at the annual meeting.

Marcus Agius, the chairman, and John Varley, the chief executive, are both expecting some shareholders to register protest votes.

However, some Barclays investors have been mollified by a threefold rise in the bank's shares since January. The bank's decision not to seek emergency funding from the Government or take part in its insurance scheme for troubled assets also went down well with its owners.

[capricious] 12/4/2009 21:43

bothdavis - personally I thought we were having a light discussion on some of the 'facts' of NL, and not particularly related to BARC - bad day friend?

[bailiffs] 12/4/2009 20:53

Not as much as you are old son..