The Georgian currency is a very big risk here and if the GEL was to return to the same average exchange rate against the USD and GBP as in 2021 then these shares would fall by about 30%
In May 2021 the USD bought 3.45 GEL but it only buys about 2.75 now
And in May 2021 the GBP bought about 4.80 GEL but it only buys about 3.50 now
There does not seem to be any good reason for this huge rise in the GEL against the USD and GBP in the last 3 years and so it is likely that the GEL will return to a more normal level against these currencies
This would mean a fall of about 30% in the shares
The dividend would also fall by about 30% |
staring to bottom out? |
Georgian and Armenian economies were helped by the huge influx of Russian money and resources last year. This will subside and the Armenian GDP will revert to around 5% this year. That is if the current government has the b*lls to stand-up to the unreasonable Azeris demands. |
Yes it's really odd isn't it???I was aware of the US law and found it quite amusing that the USA were urging Georgia not to pass this law which is very similar to their own.I think the problem here is the "fear of the unknown" factor.Also...if it scuppers Georgia's chance of easy trade with the EU it may limit the economies growth which will need new markets of its to keep up the current growth rate. |
JM, Similar laws are in place in the usa and many european countries. I have sought to understand how this law differs and why it is so contentious.
This article helps. |
I think there is a similar law in Russia which the authorities use to clamp down on anyone/thing that is not pro-government, hence the populations concern.
Think the final reading/passing of the law was scheduled for today...has that happened? |
The law has been passed.
I don't understand the protests.
What's wrong with knowing what foreign money and influence is taking place. |
If the law gets passed that may be the last time you read anything like that :-) |
I read that of 20 disruptive protestors arrested last week, one was russian and two were american! |
Big vote today in Parliament regarding "Russian Law". |
According to preliminary data, the Georgian economy grew 7.5% last year and 7.8% in first quarter of this year.
Armenia has the highest growth rate in the Caucasus region. In the last year, Armenia's economy grew by 9.8%. In January-May of this year, compared to the same period of the previous year, the economy expanded by 14.3%. |
Thanks for link |
Yep great Company and I've made some good money here but out at the mo due to geo-political situation :-( |
Solid Q1 figures from TBCG today, should read across to BGEO. |
jqb1 that's a good read, difficult to know what's going on really.
I think the thing to watch is how the mass demonstration on May 11th is dealt with by the Government. |
https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/89655 |
Yes, always a risk but now there's pics in the news I think it's woken people up to the fact that the Dream Party really, really could be trying to align itself closer to Russia even if it costs Georgia EU Candidate status.But you're right...nothing has changed since a couple of weeks ago...apart from risk perception.But I still think this, TBC, and CGEO are great. |
Not sure how the latest news effects the share price, this was already in the pipe line wasn't it? |
I sold all of these mid afternoon yesterday and close out Georgia capital this morning. Politics will overpower the fact this is a strong business for a little while. I plan to be back someday I hope. |
Me too. I've sold GCEO, my wife has sold her holding in BGEO. There's a real risk this could give up all gains on the current political uncertainty. |
Hi Ponyten,
Similar here...got totally out this morning and although it's a bit painful that I didn't sell last week I've still done rather well considering the time I was in.
Very keen on this, CGEO & TBC but, like you, just watching the news now to see how this pans out. |
Unfortunately got stopped out this morning, but at least profits protected. Been a great run and still really like this share, but will wait and see what’s happening politically before jumping back in I think. GLA. |
Ongoing for a while... |
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