Bango Share Discussion Threads

[amt] 08/4/2024 09:48

Caution should eliminate these big swings in share price. At least it will get rid of the anxiety associated with such a share. However much patience will be required.

[parob] 08/4/2024 09:48

I would rather the management be cautious, then beats/upgrades will help to increase the share price

[6gr] 08/4/2024 09:43

The big problem for the share price is the disconnect between the future potential profits and unwillingness to make any strong/long forecasts after the recent miss.

If the revenue keeps growing at 20% (taking account mainly organic growth) then they'll start adding 10m+ per year to sales, which should drop pretty much to the P&L. So profit 2-3 years out has great potential.

But....... the management will now only be super cautious about any forecasts, so they can guarantee an out-performance for FY24 after the miss.

The brokers note today only includes forecasts for '24, so just the next 9 months, compared to Boku where their broker is forecasting for '24, '25 and '26.

[parob] 08/4/2024 09:36

As mentioned before you only have to look back at the chart to see the share price has recovered every time there's been a big dip and the business is in arguably a much better position now.

[amt] 08/4/2024 09:30

What has effectively happened here is they bought a business worth well over 100m usd (just on financials) for nothing. But it's cost 40m to restructure it.Thats made the last year and the 2024 numbers bad. We won't see the full benefit until 2025 when it should being in about 14m per annum.

[parob] 08/4/2024 09:22

Yes look forward to that Hastings.Mini-dips getting bought up. Always a good sign.

[amt] 08/4/2024 09:20

Great Hastings, look forward to it thanks

[hastings] 08/4/2024 09:18

Nice catch up a little while ago and I'll try and get a write up out for interest tomorrow. Suffice to say, no raise planned and reiterated as stressed by Anil to me in January and they are comfortable and confident on that front moving forward.

[tnt99] 08/4/2024 09:08

That's where the money in the bank went on paying down debt I'm all for that at the current interest rates

[jasperlachat] 08/4/2024 08:55

Yep Frontier is a great example - ironically on the same business park as Bango. And even more ironically that I increased my Bango position at the detriment of Frontier!

[adtraderuae] 08/4/2024 08:54

I exchanged a few emails with Paul Larbey after the Jan fiasco and I asked about the 2024 forecasts specifically as they look to me like Q4 2023 * 4. His view was that after the forecast miss in 2023 they wanted to focus on setting a reasonable bar for 2024 and then being able to guide higher later in 2024. I don't think he wants to miss on expectations again, ever ? I would expect a statement at next trading update guiding to being above market expectations

[parob] 08/4/2024 08:47

Yes technical traders will arrive once the trading range has been broken imo. Same thing happened at FDEV recently. That closed above 162 last week confirming the breakout. Now look at the price.

[parob] 08/4/2024 08:45

Leaves plenty of room for upgrades.

[amt] 08/4/2024 08:45

What does that mean about technical traders, will that push the price higher ?

[parob] 08/4/2024 08:42

About to break the trading range we've been stuck in. Now watch the technical traders arrive over the coming days once it's confirmed.

[hastings] 08/4/2024 08:29

Agree, got to be upside potential on those numbers. Speaking with shortly, so hopefully get a better feel!

[jasperlachat] 08/4/2024 08:28

The forecasts seem so conservative, don’t get it.

[amt] 08/4/2024 08:26

Thanks, glad I loaded up before. Its impossible to buy. I am in danger of getting back into profit at this rate

[missmimz] 08/4/2024 08:23

Singer taster - without sub from Research Tree

A new Bango: 77% ARR growth and 137% NRR

With the majority of the Docomo integration now complete and a record Digital Vending Machine (‘DVM’) pipeline (that is converting, with a 20%+ yoy increase in Q1’24 revenues), we believe a new Bango is emerging with a highly cash generative DCB business and a fast growing, newly reported DVM revenue line that should support high incremental revenue growth. While the January 2024 trading update was disappointing, if we look at Bango’s H2’23 vs H2’22 performance, total revenues increased 46% yoy with a c.56% incremental revenue margin (i.e. drop through to EBITDA). We leave our forecasts unchanged which assumes a more than doubling of adj EBITDA yoy, this is supported by the Q1’24 performance and high operational gearing within the business (e.g. H2’23 performance). We reiterate our Buy and 220p TP.

[amt] 08/4/2024 08:14

No, but the market likes the report.
The administration costs increasing by 14m is where the issue with missing targets lies. They need to get back to the same admin costs as before. That would save 14m per year.

[dr biotech] 08/4/2024 08:11

Anyone seen the note from Singer?

[amt] 08/4/2024 08:07

I don't see any reason why they can't cut admin costs by 6m and GP should increase by 7m so that's 13m better in 2024 without potentially much more from DVM

[parob] 08/4/2024 07:59

No hidden surprises, strong first quarter, guidance for the full year reiterated. The seller should have been shaken out during the last three months of consolidation in a tight trading range. Need to break out of this range now. A close above 117p should do it over the coming days, then the recovery should gather pace imo.

[lentjes] 08/4/2024 07:55

They (especially Raymondo) have gone into detail which was missing from the TU in January which I expect will be received positively, that said if the recent seller still has stock to unload then we may not see any recovery in the share price until he’s out, Q1 sounds positive

[amt] 08/4/2024 07:55

I still think that Boku could step in to double their EUS and get the DVM plus audiences software.