Bango Share Discussion Threads

[smallcapinvestor1] 26/9/2016 13:42

Can anyone post the article here please?

[lentjes] 26/9/2016 13:30

Aleman

Thanks for taking the time to provide your views. At the end of the day EUS is growing and if the £174 EUS stated by Rachel is correct we have approx EUS £14m per month with approx £25m target for break even based on a margin of 1.67%. I also agree with your previous post in that this is all about land grab at the moment and not so much revenue.

I also doubt the GBP will recover anytime soon so this will save on cash burn whilst BANGO grow EUS. You can see the impact on the BANGO revenue of the GBP crash in the H1 results in that we generate next to zip revenue in the UK although I would hope this changes in years to come

I also expect we will get an announcement on the increase in the BANGO platform capacity in the next month or so (expected this in the H1 trading update) as this will be key for BANGO's partners and I expect we will also hear something on the long awaited AMAZON agreement in what ever form that will take as I doubt this will just be related to the APP store otherwise they could have done this months / years ago.

PS share price just hit 97.5 so looks like the market is waking up to the potential of the BANGO platform although I doubt as just suggested by J777J the II's who control BANGO or Raymondo for that matter would let BANGO go for less than multiples of their investment which based on placings over the last 6 years gives the IIs a ticket to ride price of £0.90p so some way to go before they let it go.

[j777j] 26/9/2016 12:39

Certainly have to be alert to the co potentially being at it's most vulnerable to an opportunistic bid from a much larger player.Break even within 12 or so months,a global footprint and potentially ever larger marketplace.

[18bt] 26/9/2016 12:17

TP of 200p sounds good. It's an unusual one for ST, normally he likes better asset backing, but I guess he rates spending £30m on a billing platform as such.

[tromso1] 26/9/2016 12:03

Just been tipped by Simon Thompson in the IC, hence the flurry of buying.

[aleman] 26/9/2016 09:55

I appreciate what you are trying to highlight but, perhaps, Danal sold BilltoMobile because it had gone ex-growth due to better competing US platforms. Maybe it was starting to fail which is why Danal sold and is now using Bango's platform. (Why sell otherwise to a smaller competitor?)

Migrating BilltoMobile customer's to Bango's platform is probably a distraction in the short term but it brings US phone network agreements and a short term boost to EUS to help stem cashburn - possibly followed by a flatter spell until staff get back to normal duties. Bumper numbers reported for just after the takeover but muted numbers for a few months after until customer migration is complete and niggles sorted. I think the real growth will come from non-US Danal customers adopting Bango's platform. Danal EUS could currently be about $2bn so I am assuming this is where the main growth comes come from in 2017. I think that is why the CEO mentioned the 5 x capacity limit to Bango's platform. Maybe some analysts were worrried it could not cope with volume from Danal. Because of competitive advantage, neither company will want to give too much detail out about such things as they try sell themselves as number one to merchants and consumers, though.

I'm presuming migrating Danal customers and merchants is why we are getting predictions of breakeven in Q4 2017. The CEO says breakeven well within current means. Credibility will be shot now if that is not achieved and the market will expect to see signs of those better numbers in the next updates before that. Do you think the CEO would really set the company up for such a let down? It would smack of desperation. Why would Danal sign the deals with Bango if that were the case? They'd choose someone else. I'm banking on Danal's judgement being good. They are one of the biggest players and know what's going on far better than I do. I appreciate the due diligence you are doing on the numbers, though. Do keep it up. I've experienced many crooked directors so it's good to keep on one's toes. Thanks.

[lentjes] 25/9/2016 17:07

The other way to look at this is the H1 results themselves

EUS £47m
Less 2 months BilltoMobil let's say £10m ( but could be more)
gives organic EUS £37m
Less exchange rate improvement from end 2015 to pre Brexit (let's say 5%)gives an organic EUS35.15 demonstrating BANGO has had little or no organic growth in EUS since December 2015 announcement EUS67m excluding exchange rate and the BilltoMobile EUS

[lentjes] 25/9/2016 13:26

H1 Results, overall progress appears OK but there is something fishy about the update on EUS as follows

1 The update on EUS is normally in the headline summary of the RNS as BANGO state this is the key performance indicator. However in the 2016 H1 RNS the update has been pushed down the pecking order into the CFO statement ????

2 If the September EUS (and I will give BANGO the benefit this was entering September)is only GBP 167.4m this is only GBP 4m per month increase even with all the hype of Pokémon Go which is a very poor performance.

3 The update on EUS GBP 159m in June gave a figure for the BilltoMobile EUS of GBP59m which was the figure used in May when the BilltoMOBILE deal took place. However the GBP59m was based on a BilltoMobile EUS US$80m which was pre Brexit so you should be able to add 20% to the GBP figure so the BilltoMobile EUS should have been stated in June as GBP 70.8m

4 This would leave the organic EUS in June at only GBP90m and not GBP101m

5 You then need to apply the impact of Brexit ( 20% plus side ) to the organic EUS of GBP90m and this would give an organic EUS of only GBP72m which for the 6 month period from Jan to June 2016 has only increased by GBP5m from the end 2015 EUS GBP67M even with the Pokémon Go impact

6 Summary all growth in EUS has been as a result of the acquisition of BilltoMobile and Brexit and there has been little of no growth in bango organic EUS

7 This would fit with the lack of Google activations since the SA Telcom activation in September last year and excluding India.


The alternative to the above would be the BilltoMobile EUS is not what has been stated or the September EUS of GBP167m stated by the CFO excludes the Billtomobile EUS.

Alterative views welcome

PS Still think BANGO will come good long term

[aleman] 22/9/2016 17:17

Not the clearest of charts to draw this one but it looks set to get very lively if it can get through the 95-100p area soon - or just hold above 90p for the next few months.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[smallcapinvestor1] 22/9/2016 12:11

If eus keeps doubling then it could be 1.3-1.5b by dec 2019. Say margin falls to 1.5% from 1.7 then company will be making 21m less say 6m costs by then versus 5m now. Profits of 15m on a valuation of say 12 as investors might still be sceptical ecen then. Andm cap will be 180m.So these are conservative numbers as euscould be higher. Margin and p/e could all br higher to.

[aleman] 22/9/2016 10:01

Note the important word highlighted in italics by me:



“With no significant increases in costs planned as the growth continues, the scene is set for a move to profitability and positive cash flows well within current Bango resources.”

[aleman] 21/9/2016 17:13

amt - Danal EUS on carrier billing this year should be about $2bn without Billtomobile (i.e. non-US). The question is how much of that Bango might get as Danal offers Bango platforms to their merchants. It said in the Q7A that benefits were expected in 2017. Danal now cite Bango on the landing page on their website



EUS forecasted at £258.9m and £498m by Cenkos:

htt p://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/166169/bango-is-ready-to-move-into-profitability-says-cenkos-166169.html

[hastings] 21/9/2016 16:36

Thoughts that may be of interest.

hxxp://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/business/private-punter

[aleman] 21/9/2016 09:42

Bango should seek a US listing. It would be completely rerated and the publicity would help its expansion plans in Silicon Valley (in the above link). It might have plans do so as soon as it is clear it is going to generate enough cash to support listing expenses. Just talk of a US lising in a year or two would probably see the shares rise.

[aleman] 21/9/2016 09:36

Profit growth was held back by falling platform fees. That has now ceased so the full effect of end user spend growth will shine through from here. The company says breakeven will be reached in Q4 2017 on doubled EUS. Even if organic growth does not reach that - and there are lots of initiatives that suggest it could - Billtomobile showed they could buy EUS fairly cheaply. Just think, another cheap purchase of another BtoM in coming months could bring breakeven forward to Q2 or Q3 of next year. The shares would fly as the market realised the company might actually report a profit in 2017 - a rapidly growing one, just from another small acquisition from existing cash resources. It's not inconceivable and the company may well be actively looking to do that. What value would you put on Bango if its profit forecast for 2017 to 2019 was, say, £0.1m, £5m, £15m as it used generated cash to buy more EUS through similar acquisitions. It's possible.

[smallcapinvestor1] 21/9/2016 09:15

Operational gearing. Fixed platform costs. You will see the profits growth when the company moves into profit 2017/18

[kendonagasaki] 21/9/2016 09:03

Slow growth of profits.You can grow at 1000% a year but if you make no profit....?

[amt] 20/9/2016 17:57

It all looks very exciting. However I worry that some of the statements made sound like hype For example the implication that Bango is indespensable for billions of people. There is only 7m growth from June to September despite favourable fx rate snd Pokeman. Where does the 40% share come from. A 35 billion market by 2020 why arent end user figures supporting the 40% claim. How many users does Bango support. Perhaps 25 to 50 million active users at a guess I doubt its billions. The 170 m quoted for India sounds like potential users not those already using it. They need to be much clearer about these numbers they are quoting. It could grow into a huge business but why cant they make statements that at least fit in with the numbers or explain the anomoly

[aleman] 20/9/2016 17:01

Cenkos forecast £3m earnings in 2018 after hitting breakeven in Q4 2017.

htt p://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/166169/bango-is-ready-to-move-into-profitability-says-cenkos-166169.html

That implies earnings of something like £0.0m in Q4 then £0.3m,0.6,0.9,1.2= £3.0m for 2018. So maybe £1.5, 1.8, 2.1, 2.4 = £7.8m in 2019. Simplistic, yes, but helps to get one's head around the possibilities the growth brings.

[aleman] 20/9/2016 16:31

June end user spend was up 250% on last June. Danai looking at leading collaboration into China. Just over £7m in bank. Chief exec says substantially less than that needed to reach profitability around the end of next year.

htt p://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/6012/bango-plc-chief-says-pokemon-go-craze-making-significant-difference--6012.html

[aleman] 20/9/2016 16:22

Slow growth? End use is now 6 times what it was at the beginning of last year.

[smallcapinvestor1] 20/9/2016 14:38

Slow growth? Are you on the right thread. How many other stocks growing at over 100% p.a.?

[kendonagasaki] 20/9/2016 12:56

Slow growth in a competitive market.This is overpriced here.