Bango Share Discussion Threads

[alangrifbang] 19/9/2018 12:42

Oh dear glawsiain ,I am nearly eighty with a large holding,and no relatives ,I question will I still be here!ha ha ,

[glawsiain] 19/9/2018 11:34

The David Hill guy I quoted yesterday added more on BANGO last night and partially addressed the blockchain argument that has been touted here.

"My point was really that the risk/reward is not favourable for a conviction/stand alone short of size. Ocado was a classic example of major short term catalysts burning shorts heavily, irrespective of whether (as I happen to) you think it is ridiculously overvalued.

I am personally long of Bango (LON:BGO) mainly because I think the payments space is interesting and also that they are not overvalued assuming the core tenets of their story are true : i.e. can handle $5bn of EUS with no additional ramp up of cost and the $4bn EUS pipeline is high probability.

I do however, mull over the whole blockchain competition threat to this type of cash business. Whilst I suspect there is some ultimate plausibility my suspicion is that we are some years off any mainstream adoption of it. The market will only really react to this negatively on the share price 6-12 months in advance of heavy adoption, so will keep an eye open for signs.

The data business is a bonus in my opinion, but potentially a very big one. It will break even this year at which point it is effectively a free option. In current market conditions those businesses are ascribed a lot of value but I haven't baked anything into my numbers for it. Might be the cherry on the cake though so I am happy to live with a marginally lower profitability for a year to buy the optionality."

[nimrod22] 19/9/2018 08:46

probably last chance to buy in at low price

[lentjes] 18/9/2018 22:12

The one thing that stands out for me is that Bango are able & willing to talk openly with regards to the migration of the Google play EUS as if the deal is already done. I doubt Bango would dare be so public on this issue without it being sanctioned by Google. Therefore rest assured it’s only a matter of time until large chunks of the Google 4 billion legacy EUS (if not all of it) is migrated over to the Bango Platform

[lentjes] 18/9/2018 21:25

amt

If your numbers are correct where would that put the share price by 2021 ?

[amt] 18/9/2018 21:17

EUS
2015 45m
2016 132m
2017 271m
2018 590m (forcast)

Encouraging that if forcast is met the more than doubling trend is still in place.
The recent share price fall was because it looked like the pace of growth has stalled but not a bit of it. Hence my change of view.
Interesting about those transformational deals scheduled over the next few months.

[alangrifbang] 18/9/2018 21:16

Thank up you glawsiain ,reading your post makes me feel very comfortable indeed ,and I'm pleased Simon agrees with everything you have said,waiting for the IC report and I'm sure Simon Thompson will write a report when he has studied the results,of course I like one or two others are very disappointed with the share price especially as boku rose and rose,roll on our turn,

[amt] 18/9/2018 20:58

I am pencilling in the following numbers for my own information.
2019 EUS 1.3b turnover 13m Ebitda 7m
2020 EUS 2.6b turnover 26m Ebitda 20m
2021 EUS 5.0b turnover 50m Ebitda 40m

Ebitda could easily be increased by say 2m 5m 10m by 2021 from leveraging customer data.
2022 could perhaps see 100m Ebitda.

In the talk around the numbers today the CFO was talking billions for EUS so I think the above is possible.
DYOR of course as this is back of envelope stuff.
Not sure what the market size is but I assume its hundreds of billions if not Trillions.

[red5] 18/9/2018 17:44

Still not going up nursing a 38% drop when is the thing going to go up?

[simonsaid1] 18/9/2018 17:30

Thanks Oshy great to see. Also reminds of a very important stat:

Operational costs are only up because of the Audiens acquisition. Real-terms operational costs are down slightly at £2.15m. The £3.3m total is not an indication of the overall costs of running the business.

[oshy92] 18/9/2018 17:06

Short TV interview with Bango CFO Rachel Elias-Jones

hxxps://www.fmp-tv.co.uk/company/bango-plc-investor-video/

[amt] 18/9/2018 15:50

Yes my thoughts exactly. As I mentioned the points that were not made in the report but in conversations outside have made me become as bullish on Bango as Boku.

[simonsaid1] 18/9/2018 15:33

Lovely clear analysis, thanks for sharing.

[glawsiain] 18/9/2018 15:18

Posted on stockopedia by a user who goes by as DavidJHill, in response to someone shorting BGO

"Bango (LON:BGO)

I'd be wary of shorts on this - the story is very much coming true and the next 6 months could be harsh to short positions.

A few points to note here

1) On track for a year end £592m EUS. This equates to a run rate starting next financial year at £900m. That's almost 4* the reported numbers for this Half.

2) Pipeline is £4bn but what is misunderstood is that this is nearest to arrival pipeline : what that really means is that the deals are in-principle approved by clients with technological DD complete. Ie very high chance of success. These should start coming through shortly, so you could see a series of announcements up to £1bn of EUS. That's material & would give a big uplift

3) The business is profitable but they bought a data monetisation business last year, which eat into this years profits. However, that business is also expected to reach profitability in the next 12 months I believe and could ramp up profits very considerably assuming clients using the platform want the data analysis to go with it. You can bet many will, so seems like a good cross sales fit to me and worth investing in.

What's interesting for me is that ignoring any future profitability from the data business we have a PE of 19 for next year according to broker notes on Research Tree this morning with net cash position of circa £12m. That seems very light. I'd expect a business with these attributes to get taken out at multiples of 30+ and so I do also wonder if they are becoming vulnerable to a take out here.

All in all I can see a potential 12-18 month doubling of price, but more importantly from a short position perspective, quite a few near term potential catalysts for jumps in share price. Downside on the other hand looks relatively modest given valuation metrics/peer comparisons of say 30%.

Irrespective of whether you think the stock is a buy or not the risk/reward looks wrong to me for a short position at 1:3."

[chimers] 18/9/2018 14:15

xRapid could send Ripple’s XRP price to the sky Ripple tech has no limitations, and is safe, says Santander Executive Chairwoman.

[chimers] 18/9/2018 14:15

Ripple could launch a commercial version of its payment platform xRapid "in the next month or so," CNBC reported September 17. Head of regulatory relations for Asia-Pacific and the Middle East at Ripple Sagar Sarbhai told CNBC that Ripple has been making strides toward the launch of its product xRapid.

The xRapid product is a real-time settlement platform designed to speed up international payments. Built for commercial use and backed by XRP tokens, xRapid addresses the issue of minimizing liquidity costs and making cross-border payment transactions faster. xRapid claims to significantly reduce the capital requirements for liquidity. Sarbhai said in an interview with CNBC:

[chimers] 18/9/2018 14:14

THEREFORE..................

[amt] 18/9/2018 13:32

Oh yes the other clincher was to do the opposite of what our friend Chimers states and cannot go far wrong.

[chimers] 18/9/2018 13:26

xRapid could send Ripple’s XRP price to the sky Ripple tech has no limitations, and is safe, says Santander Executive Chairwoman.

[amt] 18/9/2018 13:24

I changed my mind after reading that investors chronicle extract. This looks to be going places. I have turned bullish and tripled my investment. Let's hope it does a Boku