Seems decent value to me bought a few today as increasing far east holdings which I have very little of. |
This used to be a stock market darling, but now it's in the nobody cares camp. Taking this and the 16% discount into account, I am now on monthly investing. |
Latest Kepler paid note
However, another reason for Japan being in favour is the relatively
strong economic situation it is in, with modest inflation and wage
growth meaning that the Bank of Japan has been able to move away
from negative interest rates. In our view, this creates an encouraging
picture for corporate earnings growth in Japan which could see smaller
companies do well on a fundamental level. That said, we will likely need
to see a broadening of investor interest into the small cap space and into
higher-growth companies to see BGS outperform.
Calling a turning point is difficult, but BGS looks attractive on a
fundamental level at the moment. The growth metrics look strong, while
Praveen notes that the focus on profitability in the Japanese market is
being felt in his portfolio companies too, and means management teams
are incentivised to boost returns. If sentiment shifts, we think this could
be a powerful combination. |
Citywire summary of tender offer, and results in general |
I saw that, but really, it's a bit jam tomorrow isn't it.
We've had 3 years of underperformance - would we really wait another 3 years of lost opportunity cost for that carrot.
FJV reported annual results today (though technically it's in a different AIC category). Second sentence of their performance overview
"Spurred on by corporate governance reforms increasing focus on shareholder returns, the bulk of the rally was driven by more traditional ‘value’ style companies, although the higher-growth businesses preferred by the Portfolio Manager, Nicholas Price, began to regain favour towards the end of the year."
So the BG story does seem to ring true (though noting FJV rose 12% in that year, despite the headwinds) |
Just seen this on ii:A key point announced in the results is the trust's introduction of a one-off performance incentive to buy back up to 15% of issued share capital at a 2% discount to NAV if, over the next three years, the trust underperforms its benchmark (subject to shareholder approval). |
This says it all
"Over the year to 31 January 2024, the Company's net asset value per share† declined by 14.9% and its share price by 20.5%. The comparative index* appreciated by 6.3%." |
Annual summary, produced to end Jan
Cue reprise of previous years "it wisnae me, it was the macro-economics" |
Ongoing discussion on Citywire: is this a bargain or a dog |
 I have been a holder for circa 5 years and therefore enjoyed the 50% rise in the share price seen in 2020. Unfortunately its been all downhill since then.
Its a cyclical sector but there performance has been poor. I wrote to the Chair last week complaining about the performance, lack of communication with shareholders and their seeming unwillingness to address the significant discount. I also asked why they did not introduce a redemption programme whereby shareholders could cash in shares say once a year at a small discount.
The Chair accepted the poor performance and said they have increased buybacks to try to address the discount. He did not address the possibility of a shareholder redemption programme but encouraged me to read the forthcoming accounts and his Chairmans statement.
I may be wrong but i suspect the pressure from shareholders is starting to tell and I wonder if we will see news of some sort of potential change of manager or perhaps more likely a redemption programme and maybe reduction in management fee being introduced. The fund manager certainly needs a kick up the backside or to be changed.
I would encourage you to email the Chair with your concerns - email address is
enquiries@bailliegifford.com |
Seems like we're not the only ones that are confused. Investing royalty has also been dumfounded
The Nikkei has gone into new high ground about 34 years after the last high. Apparently the Japanese corporate sector is doing very well (unlike the Government of Japan). Accordingly, as the Nikkei has leapt ahead I have supposed that my holding c. £200,000 of Baillie Gifford Shinbun (BGS), upon which I made 200% some years ago for my family, would cause me to regret my impatience in closing (the Nikkei has subsequently more than doubled). However, nothing of the sort is the case since BGS has clearly gone down. I do not know why – perhaps the talents who ran it left BG who in turn failed to come up with a successor of remotely comparable ability. Explanations on a postcard, please. |
I imagine they'd say that their style of investment into small companies with high potential is out of favour, and that they continue to take advantage of low valuations of the great opportunities to add to their portfolio.
After all, they've said pretty much this for the last 3 years.
But it's becoming a bit embarrassing for Baillie Gifford, and frustrating for investors who have losses on paper and even bigger ones if opportunity cost is considered.
Like jezreel, until there's some positive change here, I'm not adding. Instead I took some CCJI early in the year; it's up 10% since and there is a dividend too |
Discount is around 15%, surprised it's not lower. That's the problem with ITs, difficult to cut your losses when they do bad. I don't recognise any of the holdings. I'll probably hang on to my modest holding and hope for better times. |
It would be good to understand why Shin is down 50% over three years, if Japan stock markets are reaching an all time high. Seriously bad stock picking and ... |
What a dog.
TOPIX is up 30% TTM, Small Cap Index is up 8% and BGS is down 14%.
This has missed its benchmark so badly it's in a different timezone. You'd have thought the reputational hit would have sparked some action from the PM by now. Did he chase up meme stonks during covid and then hold them all the way back down?
If the PM doesn't commit seppuku soon the board needs to perform kaishaku. |
Thanks for posting yupa.
Unfortunately Kumar has had the same story for the last two years and the share priceis not so positive...would be great to see a turn of fortune for this share |
Details on a few of the holdings within the portfolio. |
thanks - I'm not sure I can attend because I'll be travelling on that day, but I've registered anyway |
Spangle.
You can field that question direct to the fund manager, as they have a webinar on the 23rd Nov hosted by Capital Access. |
what the flip is happening with this stock
are markets in japan that bad - is the sector out of favour - or has this BG team lost their ability to sift wheat from chaff |
Spangle - My portfolio is very concentrated, I have substancial funds in the Commodity sector, particularly Uranium. |
Is there a currency headwind here?
Strong pound / weak yen. Meaning share price rise in Japan is not translated back to pound sterling and subsequently reflected in BGS nav. |
You're absolutely correct, Tudes. I guess I'm still partially believing the "sector is out of favour" line, but with every passing quarter it feels like a thinner story.
Who do you currently rate, Tudes, either Japan-only or Asian IT? I think this is an area of the world that could outstrip UK/Europe in returns over the coming years, so I am trying to build up a portfolio - so far though it's a bit spotty. The only other Japan trust I hold is JFJ which has fared a bit better than BGS |
Of the 13 Japan focused IT's /funds that I track BGS is the poorest performer YTD, over 3 yrs & over 5 yrs. It's recent performance has been absolutely awful and I'm amazed that the fund manager is still in a job. |
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