Babcock Share Discussion Threads

[jelfsie] 04/1/2004 22:50

For the record I have bought more at 122p ("missed" 125p as was out on the raz). Here's to a prosperous 2004.

[jelfsie] 03/12/2003 16:43

This is when charts can help. If this is a pull back then support should be initially at 124p, then 120p. If 120p breaks on this move we will have to reconsider the break out theory . Also Xd 19/12 (allbeit relatively small div) might provide some support. Im a buyer again at 125p.

[boadicea] 03/12/2003 16:29

As a holder, it is disappointing to see this one drift back.
As a potential investor, it is encouraging that I may be able to add more cheaply.
Given my long term confidence, the latter emotion predominates. The question is, when to add? I don't expect to see it below 120p in the present market and we may have a long and boring spell without news, so probably no urgency. As always, dyor.

[boadicea] 29/11/2003 22:24

The point here is, I think, the quality of the earnings leading to relatively good forward visibility. The share is unlikely to excite speculative interest but, with the unwanted baggage now fully disposed of, has become a very steady longer term investment with sound growth prospects, imho.
We are now at roughly the peak share values reached in late 2000 and again in mid 2002. There may therefore be a pause due to some relieved sellers who have just restored their capital, after which the true investment value should be achievable. The various estimates offered above seem reasonable to me. My own modest stab would be around 150p over the next 6 months, subject to stable market conditions.
Strictly my own view only and dyor.

[penpont] 29/11/2003 12:43

Checked the forecasts on HS again today - they now have the upgraded one from RD, but this shows £22.5m profit for 04 rather than the £23 mentioned in IC, and forecasts for next year have remained as mentioned above....

Figures for 04/05

Rowan Dartington 28-11-03 H/B 22.50 13.05 3.25 26.00 14.36 3.75

[penpont] 28/11/2003 14:19

Just been reading the results reviewed in this weeks IC. Describes them as 'good value' and says Rowan Dartington have upped forecasts from £21.5m to £23m, giving eps of 13.4p.

Checked forecasts on HS from RD for next year(2005) prior to this upgrade which were for 26.5m and 14.6p eps, so assume this will be upgraded to give at least 15p and poss up to 16p?

Other brokers shown on HS are more conservative and of course since Cazenove is the HB we wont know their numbers, but on the RD ones they look a good buy to me, esp on any further weakness.

[biggcl] 24/11/2003 12:45

eps (pre-exceptionals) - 6.69. Say 15 for the full year because of the growth. take a pe of 11 implies a price of 165!

[jelfsie] 21/11/2003 10:03

Boadicea; correct. I err on side of caution. Cheers john. May i say to you all its nice to have a proper BB for once when peeps swap informed ideas / information that add value to all. Good luck with all your positions. Quite happy to receive anyone with an alternative / bearish view on this share. Anyone wish to make informative comment?. I note the FT today said that a re-rating (ie P/E of 13 + in line with VT group) in its view was unlikely to be achieved until the uncertainties over Rosyth were removed, but to my mind a P/E of 10 on 2005 earnings still gives 130p +. DYOR as usual.

[boadicea] 20/11/2003 13:41

Very positive. Confirms my opinion that this company is undervalued and due a rerating.
jelfsie - I assume you are using statutory eps. Adjusted/underlying eps looks better to me and should make 13p+ this year (to March 04). Next year should have no capital write-downs with luck. Agree your target. All imho/dyor.

[jelfsie] 20/11/2003 13:12

Added this AM at 1.23p. I make 2004 EPS 11p and 2005 13.3p. Cash Flow much stronger than I expected. I see these as good value below 130p. Target 150p.
What did this "Trendwatch" say?.

[johnrxx99] 20/11/2003 11:12

In Trendwatch today

[jelfsie] 11/11/2003 10:01

Current market forecasts are 10.7p for 2004 and 12.2p for 2005. Positive interims will see the 2005 forecasts in particular being upgraded by 15%. I am tempted to add, but will as usual wait for the interims and accept lower risk / reward.

[phil7c] 10/11/2003 18:02

By the way - rated as a buy in Sunday Telegraph (9/11/03)

[jelfsie] 10/11/2003 11:03

Nice move up. Results due 20th. more positive news then and we could see 130p plus.

[jelfsie] 05/11/2003 09:29

Ah now that contract (South West Prime) is more like it. Thats worth approx. £60M p.a. over next 7 years. BAB should be trading up at 130p plus IMO.

[jelfsie] 19/9/2003 18:10

Not really big enough to move the market, but thanks anyway.

[ntkntk] 19/9/2003 13:31

Are you waiting for this? a new contract?

[jelfsie] 27/8/2003 15:21

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[jelfsie] 19/7/2003 00:15

Well nothing new to report. Expect fairly unspectacular progress on the share price until the interims but I am still a long term holder. Could still see 125/130p before interims.

[jelfsie] 17/7/2003 19:44

All eyes on the AGM tomorrow. if there is any good news on contract wins it will come then.

[boadicea] 14/7/2003 14:15

Suddenly up 7p in one go. News on the way? - or MM's caught short of stock?
Follows a steady drip downwards, perhaps an unsuccessful tree-shake.
I have not found one but wonder whether there has been a tip over the w/e.

Is there anyone following this with any news or ideas?