I don't know guys the body armour was a big mistake and the share price reflected this in the fall.I can see the city liking the fact the board have taken what is a bold unexpected decision. There must have been some massive failings within the ballistics model |
Well I suppose if you ignore all the right downs, then they made a profit!!!Sorry mate results look awful for a company valued 50 percent higher than their annual revenue. Big fall coming. Was the debt figure expected to be so high, going from a high cash to high net debt $55m seems extraordinary. Can they afford the dividend?? |
"significant commercial momentum into FY22, which will also benefit from a strong ramp-up in body armour". Paul McDonald October 2021... Incompetent value destruction... How do the BOD get away with it? |
With respect I wasn't reading the wrong line - its is the adjusted profit I was quoting (and is the reportable figure) as comparison vs estimate. |
Headline is misleading - here is the detail
YEAR RESULTS
Revenue $248.3 million, estimate $251.1 million (range $248.0 million to $253.0 million)
Adjusted operating profit $22 million
Operating loss $29 million
Final dividend per share 30.6c
Adjusted basic EPS 60.6c
COMMENTARY AND CONTEXT
Growth expectations for FY22 and beyond are underpinned by our long-term contracts in respiratory and head protection and our strong opening order book excluding armor of $116.5 million, which provides good visibility going into the new financial year
Continues to experience the impact of disruption in global supply chains and customer order pattern volatility
Cautious view on the anticipated rate of growth for FY22 at this stage
Board is guiding to revenues excluding armor, in FY22 of between $260m and $290m, with further revenue of up to $25 million from the armor business depending on the timing of DLA ESAPI product approvals |
Profit after tax is $25.8M LOSS!!!You are reading the wrong line. Another big take down today IMO. |
Headline being published - Avon Protection FY Revenue Misses Estimates
Oh well you can't win them all |
Full results now available - entirely predicatable and somewhat tedious reading.
Adjusted profit after tax - $18.6 m - towards bottom end of estimates. |
Preview courtesy of my companies market data provider (mentioning no names)
YEAR
Adjusted operating profit estimate $20.8 million (range $17.2 million to $22.7 million)
Revenue estimate $251.1 million (range $248.0 million to $253.0 million)
DATA
4 buys, 1 hold, 1 sell
Avg PT GBp2,391 (120.6% upside from current price)
Avg absolute change after prior 9 earnings: 4.7%
Shares rose after 5 of prior 9 earnings announcements
Shares up 1.7% in past 5 days vs UKX Index down 1.0%
Shares down 71.0% in past year vs UKX Index up 11.2% |
IMO the share price was adjusted to the worst case scenario, dropping it by 51%, the day they announced they will carry out the body armour review - which represents in fact only around 17%. So the reaction was overdone. Then what if they flag up a hint of a takeover bid tomorrow ? ... |
Interesting move up with a rise above 3 percent today. I believe there will be a statement out tomorrow with results so this may be a preemptive strike on better news and dare I say it good resultsI have doubled up today buying at 1030 |
Also adding just in case the whole business is taken over. I am sure AVON is already on the radar of many major players. |
I am adding as I also own quiet a bit too. I will leave them to mature for a few years. Knowing how sensitive the share price reacts to the news, it won't take long before they cross £20 barrier again. |
I own a fair few of these already but I am so tempted to really load up if this drops further. |
I expect this to fall 10-20% on announcement of the body armour exit.
What could limit this is Director buying (will be outside of closed period) and institutions adding. |
The body armour alone represents no more than 17 - 20% of the total sales. The market over-reacted by chopping more than 50% of the share price. IMO this was due to triggered stop losses that led to a huge spike down as the number of shares issued was just over 30 million - so the price is very volatile and sensitive to any sell or buy action. |
Even the broker Edison is all but confirming this
The outcome of the review along with FY21 results should now be announced in December. In advance of further guidance from the company we have adjusted FY22 numbers to exclude body armour.
hxxps://www.edisongroup.com/company/avon-protection/
2022E Revenue $288.6M EBITDA 59.4M PBT 38.1M EPS 99.4c P/E 14 |
No one here or in the market should be surprised next week if the company announce an exit from the armour business and a writedown of about $50M. You would think that was priced in with the 50% drop. |
Very interesting point the basic escape hood gives full protection but is quite restrictive.The simple mask market is flooded but the market for professional services is massive and more specialised You should be on the board |
Well I was imagining that Avon is fully capable of creating 'everyday-wear' masks for your routine high-street covid situation or meeting with friends/going to events/using a train/doing surgery etc. However Jeff, you paint an interesting picture, so I'm going to order the full-fat military mask and get a Team Wendy helmet too. Do you know where I can get a light-sabre or even just a common-or-garden under-the-table blaster? (Obviously, when I say 'under-the-table', I mean for use under the table when blasting bounty hunters.) |
I think if numbers of people started wearing Avon masks for Covid protection, the rest of us would assume either that WW3 had started or we had wandered into a Star Wars convention. |
Has anyone noticed that this company makes masks? And has anyone told Avon Protection's management that the mask business is very popular right now? Maybe they should look into that. |
Strong recovery huh. Same waffle on here when it dropped to 3000 and traded sideways for a bit Before dropping to 2000 and we had exactly the same waffle when it traded sideways for a bit Then it dropped to 1000 and now it exactly the same waffle. Trouble is that this is still overpriced on a P/E basis even down at 1000 and they have just ditched their growth plans and have their heads down in a "strategic review" which is corporate code for "we haven't got a scooby doo what to do next" Wait until you see the write downs and it's going to drop again IMO |
IMO their last update on the body armour was perhaps the worst case scenario for the shares to drop 51%. I expect in their results and update next December the market will discover it's not really as bad as they assumed. I think this will be the trigger for a strong recovery. |
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