Avon Protection Share Discussion Threads

[blue377] 13/8/2021 15:53

A Glimmer of Hope.

[hem007] 13/8/2021 14:19

Yeah. Ive just seen. Thanks for clarifying

[smcni1968] 13/8/2021 14:19

Instead of breaking out it broke wind

[richardly] 13/8/2021 13:20

Article analysis seems to have been proved correct: hxxps://www.thetwentiestrader.com/post/unmasking-avon-rubber

[thetwentiestrader] 13/8/2021 11:01

Much of this article from Feb still stands today. Delays, troubles with integration and declining return on capital on an unadjusted basis. hxxps://www.thetwentiestrader.com/post/unmasking-avon-rubber

[jackdaw4243] 13/8/2021 10:53

Broke one of my basic rules and added to an offside position

[mallorca 9] 13/8/2021 10:42

Chick ... be careful with banks - they are very vulnerable !!

9 degrees - spot on !

[9degrees] 13/8/2021 10:31

this must be a rocking takeover target now

[ch1ck] 13/8/2021 10:25

I'm not a buyer of the DOW short inflation will have some effect but no a market collapse You just need to position in to banks, and commodities and safer stocksIf your nimbleness trade individual stocks you will do well

[cashstrapped] 13/8/2021 10:24

Yes think RB sold at 4645 but forgot to mention it.
Then went short.

[mallorca 9] 13/8/2021 10:23

I agree.
So many people with huge mortgages fuelled by the current low interest rates.
'House Of Cards' is a good description - it may all come tumbling down.
Cash is king !

[ch1ck] 13/8/2021 10:23

Luckily I sold when the price fell 2.5 percent a few days ago. It quickly recovered but I thought it was odd.Bought the same number of shares this morning saving the percentage fall today.The news today is a short term blip compounded by the closure of Chinese ports due to infection

[salpara111] 13/8/2021 10:12

Central Banks have all kept up a narrative that the current spike in inflation is temporary but from what I am seeing at work there is a creeping acceptance that large price rises are not temporary but here to stay.
IF......and thats a big IF, there is a structural change rather than temporary, we are all doomed, the global economy only works at present because it is fuelled by virtually free money, if inflation expectations were to change the whole damn house of cards will come tumbling down and a short on the Dow will look like a good bet!

[morti1] 13/8/2021 10:06

Perfectly fitting results for Friday 13th.. what a wealth wound!

[mallorca 9] 13/8/2021 09:43

Salpara,

I don't actually think that Avon is overvalued - quite the opposite given the nature of it's business.

I do take on board your comments re the supply chain though (I am an ex Purchasing Manager in the Automotive Tier 1 supply base). That's one reason that I have opened a short on the DOW.

[salpara111] 13/8/2021 09:35

Well there was nothing good in this update.
As I've posted before, this is a decent company but its valuation had got out of control. The simple fact is that at the current share price the valuation metrics look too rich. I work for one of the largest car company's in the world and I can tell you that supply chain chaos is a real thing and it is putting huge pressure on both product delivery due to specific component shortages and cost inflation.

[jurgenklopp] 13/8/2021 09:08

re #244

They bought a couple of days ago so are underwater.
Hopefully topping up today.

[mallorca 9] 13/8/2021 09:08

$221m of orders taken in the last ten months ..... opening para of today's RNS !

[mallorca 9] 13/8/2021 09:05

Franklin Templeton seem to agree with me - they've just bought over 5% of the shares !

[suetballs] 13/8/2021 08:59

Well it is Friday 13th!
Suet

[mallorca 9] 13/8/2021 08:56

Sphere,

great post.

I have recently opened a short on the DOW.

A hedge but I also see a HUGE correction there soon !

[mallorca 9] 13/8/2021 08:53

Hem,

RB has been in this for years .
He declared it as his largest holding about one year ago.
If you look at his 'longs' on his web site it is still there as multiple open longs.
His stop loss though was over £30 !

[sphere25] 13/8/2021 08:46

So that's another company warning on supply chain disruptions, following the likes of ULVR, RKT, CTEC and some smaller ones like TCN, AIEA. There are so many companies saying the same thing and yet the market is barely batting an eye lid on their ratings. Then the warning's comes, the share prices take a hit and are yet to recover!

You even have the dealerships setting up possible warnings with MMH being the most recent in referring to a "high level of uncertainty" and a "possible range of outcomes" and it's the same theme with the market absolutely (overly?) comfortable on the shares.

Watching recent events and company news, is the market too comfortable?

It is pretty apparent that the market is dismissing all these issues as very very short term, but it could still pay to review what companies have said and keep a closer tabs on forthcoming company updates.

All imo
DYOR

[hem007] 13/8/2021 08:46

He bought ULE, QQ and CHG. He didn't say he bought this one.

[mallorca 9] 13/8/2021 08:46

Well into profit already.

What a buying opportunity that was.

This is a world class business. Now we all clearly know what the issues have been.

Critical business as competition is limited due to the lengthy (years) approvals process for new products / suppliers.

Bound now to be a buyout target at this ridiculously low market cap.