Avis Europe Share Discussion Threads

[mister tomato] 22/8/2005 16:29

...er... When is the Sept trading update expected..?

[gerry321] 18/8/2005 13:48

Ash
Any view on what the charts are suggesting for ave over the next few weeks ahead of the Sept trading update ?

[iss005] 22/7/2005 16:20

After the rights issue I will only have 1001 shares. So I don't care much either. I only posted here because posts have been very few and far between.
But I recon that typical savings on a rental is worth about £30 p.a. So that's not bad for an outlay of £500.

[flaton2000] 22/7/2005 15:50

Thing is.....who bloody cares?

[mr ashley james] 22/7/2005 15:23

Why don't you work out what you paid for the shares and what the discount you get each time you hire a car.

How on Earth can you expect us to know how many times you hire a Car or your average bill by so doing?

Come on your question is pretty daft even by ADVFN FBB Standards.

[mr ashley james] 22/7/2005 15:12

No idea whatsoever.

[iss005] 22/7/2005 14:58

got some of these at flotation... is it worth hanging on to them for the discont on car rentals?

[gerry321] 21/7/2005 16:51

Chirpy

No real worries here
All we have is Deutche Bank continueing to unload some of their 3.43% holding of 20M shares They were under 3% by their 20 June announcement leaving them with around 17M shares

There was no chance DB could unload 17M shares into a "free" market of 24M so they are doing the next best thing and unloading sufficient shares to fund rights issue payments for their residual holding This means having to sell around 4M/5M shares by this week and leaving them with the pre rights equivalent of 12/13M shares to be dribbled away or maybe held for the immediate term

[chirpy chappy] 21/7/2005 15:12

Ooooo, big sells going through, somebody dont want their shares !

[m4m] 17/7/2005 14:28

Gerry

Charts update automatically and usually are only adjusted for share splits and consolidations.
The very weak RSI (oversold ) may suggest the risk to further downside is limited but an investor would never buy whilst a stock is still in a down trend or below the 50 and 200 day moving averages. Of course that's why the 'brave' make more profit coz they take the extra risk. Mind you gaps are there to be filled ;)


I'll let Ash give you a more detailed opinion as I am not a full time trader.

[gerry321] 15/7/2005 22:39

Ash / m4m
Would you normally reflect a rights issue adjustment in charts ie correct the graph ?
Also
Does this relative strength index chart suggesting the share price is weakening and on a downward trend ?

Also..as an ignorant non chartist ..........at the minute anyway

Since well over 90% of the Co is owned by D`Ieteren and Institutions who will generally do private deals with each other and " process" them via brokers thru the trading system to avoid major market moves in the share price
........surely most of the time the AVE charts are describing fluctations in the "free market" ie when the big boys are inactive ?
If so the stats ought to hold up pretty well since they will reflect the "herd" of investors who dont know (as the big boys will know) whats really going on inside the ave business and simply reflect day to day news about the economy etc
Although logic would indicate that.....
The chronic shortage of free market ave stock does suggest that the usual "norm" of big boys pushing up the price by buying in when insider good news is imminent may no longer be applicable to ave .....
since the profit accruing to Institutions by acquiring more ave stock from a tight free market will be disproportionately small relative to the profit they may already be sitting on with their existing holding
eg
Lets say an Institution holds 10% of ave bought at say 60p post rights and anticipate 80p from some future event when they will sell out
If they want to add 10% to their holding from a free market of only 5%
..........They need to buy a fifth of the free market shares
this is is likely to push the price so high it would gobble up most of the profit........? Or have I missed something ?

[m4m] 15/7/2005 12:55

Gerry

The beauty about the mkts is that there are loads of ways to play it and the secret is to find a way that suits your style / are comfortable with.

[gerry321] 15/7/2005 12:49

m4m and Ash

Thanks for the info .......you guys must be really clued up on stats
.. and it must be working enough for you to continue with it

All I can offer is a reasonable board room fly perpective.....

Looks like I`ve got a lot of reading to do.......

[mr ashley james] 14/7/2005 20:14

Gerry,

Yes I agree with m4m's selection a must read I was trying to find TAAZ A to Z which is useful as a glossary of technical analysis tools but could not find it, it was probably a few years ago now that I read it.

Here are some links which I hope you find useful

All the best

Cheers

Ash:)

BigCharts -
Interactive online charting service giving free and unlimited access to charts, reports, indicators, and quotes on 22,700 US stocks, mutual funds, and major market indices.
Olsen Research Library -
Ongoing development of the field of high-frequency finance. Growing body of research demonstrating patterns of persistent predictability in the financial markets.
iSigma Systems -
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ClearStation -
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MarketTrak -
Free stock market forecasts based on neural networks and genetic algorithms. Updated weekly.
Bollinger Bands -
John Bollinger offers a comprehensive tutorial on Bollinger Bands. Weekly commentary is updated every Friday afternoon.
Stockcube Research -
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Japanese candlestick chart analysis.
Decision Point -
Large collection of free technical analysis materials. Live interactive and long term charts.
Stock Consultant.com -
Automated technical analysis and research.
RiskGrades -
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ASK Research -
Free stock and mutual fund charts, updated continuously during the trading day. Technical analysis, watch lists, and market data.
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Statistical approach to the stock market analysis. Trading strategies. Theory of trading. Daily list of potentially bullish and bearish stocks.
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Interactive streaming charts and quotes on stocks, currencies, and major market indices.
The Chart Store -
Offers a reference library of historical charts of financial and commodity markets, economics, business cycles and other areas of interest.
Hard Right Edge -
Technical analysis and trading education courses, tools, resources, original strategies and stock charts.
Daniel L. Chesler, CMT, CTA -
Provides technical market research and trading recommendations for professional traders and risk managers. Markets covered: Agricultural, Energy, Financial and Forex. Technical analysis and trading ideas.
Technical Analysis from A to Z -
Introduction and reference guide to technical analysis.
Elliott Wave Market Timing -
Market timing and trading strategies based on Elliott Wave Analysis.
MarketVolume -
Volume based market timing for QQQ trading, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 indexes
Analyze Indices -
Technical analysis of the market and industry indices. Daily list of bullish and bearish stocks.
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Five day price projection charts.
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Money management system evaluating stocks mathematically for technical, fundamental, sector timing and risk analysis based on a proprietary system.
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Macroeconomic analysis of major world markets: Broad money, interest rates, inflation, bond yields, Forex, asset allocation, and fixed income
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Offers technical analysis, charts of interest, trading ideas for short-term and day traders.
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Calendar Research, Inc. -
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InvestorTech -
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Generate candlestick charts and indicator scans on over 20,000 stocks. Daily top 25 bullish and bearish indicators.
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Buy and sell decisions for active common stocks and options using proprietary technology.
Tools for Technical Analysis -
Offers detailed explanations of technical analysis, Elliot wave theory, and charting. Also includes formulae for Magic Explorer. Content in English and Turkish.
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Stock technical analysis and trading system based on advanced artificial intelligence
Arthus Analysis, -
Free world financial markets forecast with technical analysis using elliot wave theory and custom indicators.
BullChart.com -
Free stock charts and stock picks. Charts have simulated trades, color coded trends with support and resistance lines. Market timing charts based on simulated trade data are also available.
ThinkTrading.com -
Seminars and training in technical analysis, by Paul Rodriguez
Stock-Charts-Made-Easy.com -
Shows how conventional charting indicators and technical analysis are used to uncover stock price turning points. Illustrates market trading systems which can be applied to stocks, mutual funds, and futures.
Swing Trading Online -
Swing Trading system explained. Free education materials, community, and stock technical analysis newsletter.
Charts4all.com -
Technical analysis of European stocks.
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Chart patterns, trends, waves and technical analysis.
Technistock -
Offers technical analysis of the Philippine Stock Exchange data.
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Focused on short term trading of stocks and S&P 500. Options analysis and cumulative tick volume charts, astrological cycles and technical analysis.
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Analysis of global financial trends and advice on alternative investment management. Analytical work includes a strong emphasis on the techniques of R.N. Elliott and Leonardo Fibonacci.
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Author and investment manager shares his technical views on the markets.
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Technical research and analysis, training programs, and week newsletter.
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Parabolic graphs of various commodities and stock indices to project trends.
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Charting and medium term technical analysis software for stock trading.
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Artificial intelligence trading systems for US stocks. Daily buy / sell overview.
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Forecasting financial markets using the evolution of past and present market prices.
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Proprietary trading systems, technical analysis for institutional and professional traders.
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Market-timing strategies using Gann-elliott techniques.
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Screening and back testing tools on major indexes.
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Attempts to forecasts major moves in the financial markets by chart interpretation and technical analysis.
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Predicting stock prices using artificial intelligence, machine learning, and genetic algorithms.
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Gives daily analysis of the Indian stock market. Also comments on the Dow and Nasdaq indices.
AO Wave, Inc. -
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The Buchanan and Co. -
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Use technical and fundamental analysis to find short term investment opportunities. Predict the stock market and find stocks that are getting ready to rise.
Elliott Wave Analysis by Alexander Bezrodny -
Applying the Elliott Wave theory to forecast financial market behavior.

[m4m] 14/7/2005 19:44

Gerry

This is a goodun with alot of free info

[gerry321] 14/7/2005 17:09

Thanks Ash
Looks ........like I need to read up on charts
Any websites you can reccommend?
Cheers

[mr ashley james] 14/7/2005 10:21

Gerry 321,

Well it is technically an engulfing Hammer Bottom, so the hope is that it fills that gap upwards to 62.75p.

The trouble is as to whether the required pennant moves three on support and break on third test of resistance are complete.

So the theory goes, it looks like a horizontal triangle confirmed break to me.

Cheers

Ash:)

[gerry321] 13/7/2005 21:37

Ash
I`m ignorant on charts
What is your chart telling us about the direction of the AVE share price ?? ??

[gerry321] 11/7/2005 22:54

handy
If you look at the Cendant global marketing plan you will see how cd plan to integrate an Avis Inc carhire into their leisure business as part of the leisure proposition while at the same time cutting overheads by sharing fixed assets and other common resources with Avis inc in the countries where both are operating
Presumably this will lift avis inc margins by burying the cost in the wider package...........or depress avis margins by lost leader type promotions
Also
cd bought ebookers to assist expansion of their global leisure business into coutries where their carhire option is AVE not avis inc
Sure they can do some of this by working jointly with AVE without owning AVE
But the reality of synergy development and joint marketing initiatives is that you win some and you lose some .......which is ok if you have the same bottom line but very not ok if you dont and a recipe for bickering at top mgt level
Hence the only logic for subsuming differences between ave and cd on 05 thru 06/07 is ultimate ownership by cd
I would agree with you one one thing
This debt is a big problem which although carrying a tax benefit to D`Ieteren and Cendant is nevertheless a big factor in the sale price of the business
Another point
Under the terms of the licence
D`Ieteren can sell 33% of AVE ie more than half their stake to Hertz without needing permission from Cendant

AND
When Car Cos are in trouble they bend over backwards to keep their big customers from going out of business So its doubtful if AVE will have real problems upgrading their fleet in the next 18m / 2yrs

[handycam] 11/7/2005 16:07

Mr. Bolton,

Why are you trading on just #3.50 per penny movement? Very uneconomic and poor use of your time in monitoring such an investment. Far, far better to have a few bigger bets and keep a patient eye on those.

Yours etc.,

[handycam] 11/7/2005 16:05

Cendant can very well ringfence this co. without borrowings being recourse to itself. Add to that the fact that they are already regretting buying Ebookers from the Brits.

[gerry321] 09/7/2005 20:31

handy
When you own 60% of a business you own 100% of its problems
You are the bsnk gurantor and the lender of last resort
You cant dump the business and be free of its debts
....... if only it was that easy
D`Ieteren are using borrowed money to fund their share of the rights
Also
Two major US funds Fidelity and Templeron have been stakebuilding in AVE since Jan 05 ..................why ??
Sure the financials trll a different story........but world wise brands dont get liquidated .......they get sold
So the absolute bottom line would be what is the brand worth to Cendant if they were faced with some nasty alternative involving a majot competitor