Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[andy] 17/6/2016 12:14

sg31,

That's exactly what I think, and the higher it goes, the better for shorters who may well return when they perceive the ramp has peaked.

With Tom's recent bearish calls I guess a few shorters have been caught out by this rise, let's see if it has any more legs, I suspect it won't go much further, volume will be the key barometer IMO.

We will see who is calling this correctly in due course, but when I see all sorts of bullish "analysis" I.E. commissioned reports being touted around at the same time, I suspect desperation on the part of the corporate involved.

[sg31] 17/6/2016 10:21

Weatherman, Price goes up...no comment. Price goes down...shorters at it again.

As a disinterested party (no position) the recent rise looks like a ramp.

[weatherman] 17/6/2016 08:45

From the Edison note - strong growth in Broadband revenues over 4 years (total annual revenues were reported higher).
2013 $21.1m
2014 $43.8m
2015 $54.4m
2016 $80.5m estimated (total estimated at ~$86m)
2017 $119.1m forecast
2018 $173.8m f/c
2019 $266.2m f/c
2020 $364.2m f/c

[weatherman] 16/6/2016 17:36

Looks like the shorters manipulating the price again...

Some Q3 revenue is being carried forward into Q4, plus contribution from EE deal.

We have seen strong growth of 40-50% in recurring revenues over the past 4 years, but obviously too slow for the smash and grab crew.

[wiseacre] 16/6/2016 16:52

When has the company ever met its forecast?

[dangersimpson2] 16/6/2016 16:31

They've forecast 50% revenue growth for the year so they should do $39.7m in Q4 if they are on target to meet their forecasts. If they can do that from data & equipment sales on normal commercial terms that will be impressive since it will be twice what they did in Q3. Although given the increase in trade receivables during Q1/2 it looks like they pushed to book revenue in H1 so Q3 may have been artificially low as a result.

[weatherman] 16/6/2016 13:51

Last year's e-o-y trading statement was issued 6 July. Looking for final quarter revenue of $35-40M given recent growth, contracts and statements.

[elrico] 16/6/2016 11:23

fastbuck - Britishbulls is a TA bases site, so it should be no surprise the signals changes daily. Essentially, AVN is a slam-dunk sell of fundamentals.

[bwakem] 16/6/2016 10:44

Dump follows pump as night follows day.

[fastbuck] 16/6/2016 08:23

British Bulls still long the link says, no idea who follows this site, looks like it won't be long for them to reverse the decision and go short, they have switched from buy to sell / short and back again seven times in 6 months. Good for the trader when they get it right but company is a in desperate need of a buyer. Whether anyone will is desperate for a very small fleet with limited revenues is another matter. Probably end up with the debt holders in the end.

[elrico] 16/6/2016 08:11

Credit where credit is due, Williams has done a sterling job utilising city prostitutes to pump AVN ahead of a placing, it reduces dilution. However, it’s just my opinion ignoring regulatory rules and all…I think AVN should make an announcement, perhaps in due course because even Williams must concede he cannot prop the share price up indefinitely, sooner or later he will have to concede hard cash is not going to come it at the rate he projects. Pricing pressure remains and even the clowns at Edison realise the dilemma. AVN is trying to say it ll bring in $92ml FY 2016, strip out interest on the debt mountain at $64ml, then admin at $35mil you see the problem, it’s burning cash. But hand on, Edison is talking at FY 2018 breakeven with a utilisation of 40% when historically, AVN has only ever managed 25/30% capacity and even Williams concedes there is industry wide squeeze on margins, so in reality, AVN are going to need c60% utilisation of capacity across its fleet of tin cans.

[chriscallen] 16/6/2016 07:29

On another BB I picked up the following link that appears to be news of a new contract rather than the regurgitation of old items that should already be factored into the SP:

hxxp://crweworld.com/united-kingdom/trendingnow/news/68912/improving-farming-with-satellites-business-projects-win-funding

Its noteworthy that AVN don't think this is worthy of even a trade release even though the potential for the sector is large - they already are involve in a much larger project in Spain and Portugal

[seball] 15/6/2016 19:43

Last Signal:STAY LONG
Last Close:+81.75 Change:+11.25 Percent change+15.96% Signal Update Our system’s recommendation today is to STAY LONG. The previous BUY signal was issued on 13/06/2016, 2 days ago, when the stock price was 55.12. Since then AVN.L has risen by +48.31%.

[seball] 15/6/2016 19:42

Buy Signal has been generated
For those of you that follow the BB website. It has now generated a buy signal. Should see this start to move now.

[seball] 15/6/2016 19:41

Avanti Communications Group plc (“Avanti”; or “the Group”), a leading provider of satellite data communications services in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, announces that it has won a contract to supply EE Limited with satellite capacity for cellular backhaul.

Avanti will connect a number of cellular sites across the UK to EE’s network using the HYLAS 1 and 2 satellites, to provide communications in remote areas and additional network resilience.

The first phase of this multiyear contract has an initial value of $29m, plus options to double the capacity.

David Williams, Chief Executive Officer of Avanti, said: “We have designed the HYLAS satellite fleet to offer the highest levels of network quality and flexibility, beyond the levels that have been previously available via satellite. This contract win demonstrates those qualities and affirms our ability to deliver at the highest level.”

Mansoor Hanif, Director of Radio Access Networks at EE, said: “We are delivering a highly resilient, truly nationwide 4G network and Avanti will play a key part in providing resilience and extending this network into rural areas.”



For further information please contact:

Avanti Investor Relations: Matthew Spri

[seball] 15/6/2016 19:41

427p price target
Avanti has reported Q3 trading that not only allows it to maintain its guidance for revenue growth, delivering a positive EBITDA in Q3, but clearly indicates a path towards free cash generation. With contract momentum building with high quality customers, recurring revenues are growing, satellite capex is almost complete and the financing facilities nearing finalisation appear more than sufficient to execute the plan. As this progress becomes more widely appreciated, we expect the share price to be released from its shackles and start to trend towards cash-based fair values. Our own capped DCF still returns a fair value of 427p per share.

[elrico] 15/6/2016 19:12

Credit where credit is due, Williams has done a sterling job utilising city prostitutes to pump AVN ahead of a placing, it reduces dilution. However, it’s just my opinion ignoring regulatory rules and all…I think AVN should make an announcement, perhaps in due course because even Williams must concede he cannot prop the share price up indefinitely, sooner or later he will have to concede hard cash is not going to come it at the rate he projects. Pricing pressure remains and even the clowns at Edison realise the dilemma. AVN is trying to say it ll bring in $92ml FY 2016, strip out interest on the debt mountain at $64ml, then admin at $35mil you see the problem, it’s burning cash. But hand on, Edison is talking at FY 2018 breakeven with a utilisation of 40% when historically, AVN has only ever managed 25/30% capacity and even Williams concedes there is industry wide squeeze on margins, so in reality, AVN are going to need c60% utilisation of capacity across its fleet of tin cans.

The bulls focus on the paid for reports heady price targets, nobody asks why non are close to each other and of course nobody remembers Williams suggesting the shares are worth £25 and promptly dumping a shed load.

[dice1950] 15/6/2016 16:42

Great stuff onwards and upwards busy elsewhere today but fantastic

[seball] 15/6/2016 16:35

Avanti Communications Group plc (“Avanti” or “the Group”), a leading provider of satellite data communications services in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, announces that it has won a contract to supply EE Limited with satellite capacity for cellular backhaul.

Avanti will connect a number of cellular sites across the UK to EE’s network using the HYLAS 1 and 2 satellites, to provide communications in remote areas and additional network resilience.

The first phase of this multiyear contract has an initial value of $29m, plus options to double the capacity.

David Williams, Chief Executive Officer of Avanti, said: “We have designed the HYLAS satellite fleet to offer the highest levels of network quality and flexibility, beyond the levels that have been previously available via satellite. This contract win demonstrates those qualities and affirms our ability to deliver at the highest level.”

Mansoor Hanif, Director of Radio Access Networks at EE, said: “We are delivering a highly resilient, truly nationwide 4G network and Avanti will play a key part in providing resilience and extending this network into rural areas.”

[seball] 15/6/2016 16:26

Yes they are getting $2000 per Mhz the latest Deal with EE was at that price , which also happens to be the largest deal of its kind in the world. Shows some confidence in Avanti doesn't it. DYOR.

[dangersimpson2] 15/6/2016 16:24

weatherman,

cash break even shouldn't include depreciation since it is a non cash charge although it may explain the difference between $99m & $135m

Avanti are not getting $2000 per Mhz per month, either that or the utilisation figures they have been reporting in the past were exaggerated.

And to cash break even at $135m at 40% utilisation would be 100% gross margin again vs 40% historical.

[qs99] 15/6/2016 15:51

Yup, looking forward to move towards a quid shortly!

[seball] 15/6/2016 15:50

Weatherman I am fed up trying to spoon feed derampers. Good on you for having the patience. Best of luck.