Avacta Share Discussion Threads

[tickboo] 18/2/2024 07:17

Trading view has 1.43m as a 30 day trading volume daily average. The point is we have paid off over 20 per cent of the loan and death spiral has not materialised. We have had 1 conversion 1p less than the raise price and one 5p and the others at or near the highest of 118p. Also with each payment the interest is reduced and more overpayments no interest at all. Anyway, given recalculation happens in April if we are below the last than it is likely death spiral will happen. Before that is AACR and I am certain really impressive data will be presented. In the meantime we will have raised cash via licensing deals, a sale of DX (even selling at a slight loss would be good IMO as money for TX) or a raise to IIs (not retail IMO) and I suspect the share price a lot higher than where we currently sit. I wonder why IIs don't have shorts above 0.5%?

[loglorry1] 17/2/2024 23:46

Why would you be amazed. They already are raising to retail via the death spiral. Who do you think is buying the converted stock each quarter? The share register is also almost all retail already. All the financial PR is directed at retail. It's well known Myles McNulty works for financial PR firms hired to promote shares to retail. Didn't he also tip Ben's Creek BEN and TGR? I may be wrong about these but others can confirm.

The FT reports Ave volume at 1.03m a day.

It's also an average of 57K shares to sell each trading day excluding bank Holidays at the last conversion price. The next one will be lower so 60K+.

You see once this kicks in it snowballs and it's kicking in now. If the shares go to 60p they'll probably need to sell 100k a day and you can bet volume will trail off to maybe 500k a day. Try selling 20% of the volume each day and keeping the share price up!

[bob reno] 17/2/2024 22:32

So another raise next quarter ??? LOL

[tickboo] 17/2/2024 17:55

Average Volume (30D) 1.43?M?.We have had 7 conversions, 5 have been nearly 25 per cent above raise price and 2 have been around 5 per cent lower. Hardly death spiral. Death spiral will occur if we struggle to raise cash and we will know the state of play in a month or two max. I suspect we will have some interesting RNSs in the lead up to AACR. Again, I reiterate I would be amazed if they go to retail to raise. Not long to find out.

[loglorry1] 17/2/2024 17:32

Ave volume is 1.03m so more like 5%. The problem with death spirals is once the share price gets down to the 50p range it will be more like 10% of volume and you'll see PI interest dry up cos PIs will become stale bulls. If volume falls in half you then have 20% of daily volume which will kill the stock further.

On top of that they also need to raise another $15m or more for the next year all that has to get absorbed by PIs too.

I just see no point buying back with that wall of stock coming.

[tickboo] 17/2/2024 15:50

50k shares sold a day is circa 3.5 per cent of the average daily volume.

[tickboo] 17/2/2024 15:46

The CLNs are around 50k shares sold a day over a quarter. Hardly earth shattering. You got the cash burn massively wrong which is only around £1.5m a month. Yes P2 will of course cost more and increase that, rule of thumb is between $50k and $75k a patient. I really do not think we will have an issue raising cash and we will know in the next month or so. I can see a DX sale as I suspect that element muddies the water if funds are considering investing. A keen couple of mo the ahead with AACR and CLN rebalancing end of April.

[loglorry1] 17/2/2024 15:09

@tickboo how much do you think they will raise? Phase 2 will cost a lot of money and they still owe 38m to the death spiral provider and have eyewatering cash burn on top of that anyway. There are almost no institutional investors in the company to rely on so where is that kind of money going to come from?

[fieldhouse] 17/2/2024 12:35

Or a sale of the DX division !

[tickboo] 17/2/2024 08:33

FYI - I am 99% sure there will not be a raise from retail so leaks much less likely. I strongly suspect we will see a licensing deal or partnership that will negate the need to raise. If they do dilute I reckon it will be via IIs with little or no discount.

[tickboo] 17/2/2024 08:01

I can only assume attention to detail is not a quality you possess. I suggest you read you post again.

[ohwhatfun] 16/2/2024 17:33

Tick

Licences deal??? 99% sure, wow, good luck there.🤪

They take ages, and don’t typically become a feature until a much wider number of participants have been dosed and reviewed.

So more like 1% chance. 99% go to msrket.

If they hang on until easter it means the trend is likely to continue South with higher dilution.

[amanitaangelicus] 16/2/2024 14:07

We know the phase 1 data is top notch. We.ll know more soon too plus no doubt a mountain of anecdotal evidence.Avacta dont have to persuade us shrooms but rather the serious licensing partners. No such thing as a free lunch. What exactly will Avacta end up having to sacrifice indirectly for the blood money? We wait. Hope Tick.s right, really i do. Sorely tempted to have a big punt but my palms aren.t itching. Enjoy your weekend. St Abbs for me. A haven of tranquility, fresh air on the Borders Jock coast. A week recuperating ...laters.

[tickboo] 16/2/2024 09:41

B2HS2L on LSE and remember once patients come off nor so dox their disease generally progresses so as dr Tap said giving more checked due to no disease progression (and with few side effects) is a game changer. We had 13 patients taking drug which represents around 50% of the patients in the latter cohorts and I'm sure we'll get some superb details at AACR. These patients are very ill and heavily treated so as a first line treatment will be e much more impressive (naive tumours).Christina Coghlin Slide 17 (32:34) "The first case to discuss is the young 59 yo gentleman with a soft tissue sarcoma, this is called an Undifferentiated Pleomorphic Sarcoma (UPS). Based on the evidence in the literature this subset of sarcoma is anticipated to have high FAP expression and has a limited response to standard dose Doxorubicin.What we've seen in this particular patient is a deepening tumour response whereby the lesions or the tumours in the various organs in this patient have shrunk by 65% from their baseline, - we do this with CAT scans. [A computerized tomography (CT) scan combines a series of X-ray images taken from different angles around the body and uses computer processing to create cross-sectional images (slices) of the bones, blood vessels and soft tissues inside the body. CT scan images provide more-detailed information than plain X-rays].What's critically important here is not just the deepness of the response also the deepening meaning over time the response has continued to increase. We're actually seeing now a duration of the response that is more than six months and this gentleman is now approaching ten months on the trial. He continues to receive AVA 6000 and is doing well. You'll recall I mentioned at the beginning that standard dose Doxorubicin is only administered for six cycles or eighteen weeks, so four and a half months. However, given the limited exposure that we've seen in the bloodstream in this patient and others at this dose level of 160 migs, we are going to be able to dose this patient a further seven additional cycles if his tumour doesn't progress and this represents up to another five months of therapy which would bring him up to a total of fifteen months on AVA 6000. This represents three times the length of time that this patient could be treated if he was receiving standard dose Doxorubicin. Correlative studies also indicate that tumour biopsy in this patient has high FAP expression, and again speaking to that mechanism of action and completely recapitulating what Fiona described for us in the preclinical setting that patients with high FAP disease or high FAP expression in their disease would be susceptible to the mechanism of action of AVA 6000."https://youtu.be/eqj0hhgmX6U?si=igsVXUsQvpNWoBd1&t=1954

[pwhite73] 16/2/2024 09:34

Clinical trials - Criminal trials

Let's hope it doesn't come to that.

[tickboo] 16/2/2024 09:31

Longs and shorts know money needs to be raised around Easter. The question is how the money is raised. I am 99% sure there will not be a raise from retail so leaks much less likely. I strongly suspect we will see a licensing deal or partnership that will negate the need to raise. If they do dilute I reckon it will be via IIs with little or no discount. The last raise was in tougher times at a 5% discount.The efficacy has improved as the doses in eased which we can see by the number of patients who continue to take AVA6000 as their disease stabilised and with few side effects. Lives being extended on heavily treated patients at the end of the road. Lovely to see. No doubt the AACR presentation will reinforce that and we may have over 50% of patients who have had their lives prolonged, likely cohorts 3-6 (7 too but too soon).

[ohwhatfun] 16/2/2024 09:27

Is the raise today???

They took it up, which is typical for forward selling plans.

It has a whiff of the Friday mid day cut off point on the agreed price. 5pm will soon give the answer.

Besides all that the market cap is crazy on limited data. It’s been crazy on Avacta for some time all created by the failed LFT hype, major pumping and a big retail following.

[ohwhatfun] 16/2/2024 09:19

Good to see the general acceptance across the board that a fund raise is inevitable.

It’s not mind game just fact that they need a good deal of money to progress things depending on factors like deciding to go to phase 2 or not.

The market situation in recent times has seen some huge discounts on small caps. I doubt Avacta will see such large discounts. It all depends on the level of funding needed and the available solid backers.

So a discount is highly likely if they go to market, 10-20% or potentially more severe.

No point on 10% discount if the dilution is 20%.

Had phase 1 shown material efficacy then that’s a different matter. Safety good, efficacy on increased doses, not so good/disappointing.

So why trade for pennies now when discount could wipe out a few successful trades prior, if caught holding.

Typically they crash the price pre discount, insiders (including market makers) knowing a raise is in play.

60-80p a relatively safe assumption if a raise in the market is imminent, IE from this share price level.

[amanitaangelicus] 16/2/2024 07:52

'Comms here shocking' ...wowza. He.s finally got around to realising how convis work! Praise be. Unbelievable gall.

[amanitaangelicus] 16/2/2024 07:49

Is that Tickboo finally admitting the convis suck? Stone the crows. You heard it first on Radio Convis Dont Hurt - DJ Tickboo. More like Murder on the Dancefloor ...Mr Saltburn

[tickboo] 15/2/2024 19:16

I have a feeling the impressive number of patients who continued taking the drug as their disease has stabilised has increased. Remember normal doxorubicin csn only be taken max 6 cycles so just over 4 months and we were dosing patients for a lot longer (one for nearly a year) with limited side effects. Stabilising heavily treated end of line patients tumours amazing which is why they have been able to dose as a first line treatment in C7 and will be for fortnightly. Anyway, little point in speculating on data until it's presented. Clearly we will have news beforehand on fortnightly and hopefully in the next week or so

[tickboo] 15/2/2024 19:10

Hi Log, yep the share price here disappointing for holders. That said, aside from a few months in 2022 we have been between 87p to 140p for over 3 years. I would of course like to be a lot higher than where we sit but I am not worried.We will need to raise cash I would think by March or latest end of April and certainly before their accounts are signed off. The recalculation for the CLNs take place end of April so if it isn't sorted regardless of data the share price will tank so yes they'd be much more confetti and death spiral will happen for sure (ever subsequent strike price lower so more shares issued each Q). I firmly believe there will be sufficient cash before second week in April (due to recalculation) and it won't be through retail. The comms here shocking but I think we'll be more than fine. I'm looking forward to AACR and am certain we will have some amazing results. Not long to find out old chap.

[loglorry1] 15/2/2024 18:31

If the share price halves again and gets into the high 40s then conversions will be done in the low 40s. That's going to produce a lot of dilution.

[amanitaangelicus] 15/2/2024 17:11

Loglorry ...according to our resident sage, the convis havent done any damage whatsoever. It.s all going swimmingly of course. Only £38m convis left - not a problem - an absolute breeze. When the news drops ,we may even get a 50% boost!! Wowza. We.ll back to 150p again! Still waiting for another post. Maybe ask the cleaners how great it is working at Avacta in London. It.s odd the share price has fallen given the stellar news of the max tol dose data and the amazing anecdotal data of course.If Carlsberg did small pharmas ...

[loglorry1] 15/2/2024 16:59

@tickboo long time no chat.

Did you say you expected £2+ here some months ago? Seems to be going in the opposite direction and now the convertible is getting done at a lower price (93.7p by my calcs), the company is skint, owes £38.25m to the death spiral (or call it what you will) provider AND still has a very expensive cash guzzling team to pay for.

Feels like even Myles has given up but I suppose he'll be called upon when they need to raise again.

I guess you've probably been smart enough to sell at a nice profit and move on?