Aurrigo Share Discussion Threads

[mangal] 24/8/2009 15:30

Yes the signs are good- the Russian market jumped some 4% today.

[darcon] 24/8/2009 14:52

Well, one of the key drivers of the Russian economy (and ultimately of Aurora's investments) is the oil price and that continues to motor upwards:



Russia now has the potential for a strong catch-up rally in view of its pending economic recovery. With the oil price having recovered spending in the economy is returning and industrial production is bouncing back. There is also announced spending by the government to come through in the last quarter of the year. We won't be returning to old growth rates immediately, but there is hope for a rapid recovery - a "v" shape, perhaps and certainly for very robust growth to be back by 2011.

The Russian market is also currently trading in general below its historical average. So now is probably a good time to load up on Russian exposure.

Darcon

[davebowler] 20/8/2009 13:36

das3 I'm into SDIC and ASPL both way below asset value German and Far Eastern property plays, that are just starting to motor in my view.

[envirovision] 20/8/2009 12:14

Could not agree more

[jungle raver] 20/8/2009 12:14

Looks like we finally have a bit of activity. Ask price has ticked up .25p
It's all a big waiting game but I'm sure our day will come soon.

[das3] 18/8/2009 14:49

Daveb: wake me up in another 3 months (or maybe December). Someone bought 100,000 to-day, though.

Disappointing reaction to TIG to-day. You'll have to wait a little longer for your 50%, but we got close!

Spending more time in properties (CAL, QED, WKP, MNR) as they're flavour of the month atm.

das

[davebowler] 10/8/2009 14:41

JPMorgan Russia NAV is up 11% over the last 3 months.

[davebowler] 06/8/2009 11:42

das3 Yes its personal!

[envirovision] 29/7/2009 10:31

Thhis share is for turning, its going for its next leg up. The last leg was from 10p to 30p before taking a breather. I suspect this second leg may take a little longer and be twice as big, i.e. from 23p to 63p lets keep our fingers crossed here after all the current nav cannot be ignored forever and the future prospects of its potfolio cannot be dismissed.

[das3] 28/7/2009 17:30

Mysterious 200,000 sale outweighed by total of 80,000 buys ;-) . Long time since we had a plus day.

Daveb: what with this and RCG I'm feeling that my shares are misunderstood...
is it personal??

[envirovision] 27/7/2009 11:26

patience and time, now is a good time to buy or top up/average down etc, in time it will come good imo

[das9] 17/7/2009 08:42

RTS dropped as low as 840 on 13th July but now back over 900. Fortunately AURR asleep through this turbulence. What will wake up the sleeping beauty?

Daveb: your post sounds reassuring :>

[davebowler] 16/7/2009 11:58

AURORA INVESTMENT ADVISORS –
MONTHLY UPDATE ON RUSSIA
April 2009
John McRoberts [e-mail]
James Cook [e-mail]
Ed Gascoigne-Pees [e-mail]
Alex Boycott [e-mail]
July 2009
Key Russia Economic and Market News
• Emerging markets rose at the beginning of July on a
deepening conviction that the global economy had
bottomed out. However, Russian equities fell on concerns
over Russia's bad debt as the amount of maturing
corporate debt is expected to peak in the months ahead.
On 2nd July, the benchmark RTS Index dropped 1.79% to
close at 960.46.
• A senior executive at Fitch ratings has said that Russian
banks need $20 billion to $80 billion in extra capital this
year. This follows Moody's assessments that the banks
would need $40 billion, and the central bank, which said
that the banks' need for extra capital would not exceed
$16.07bn despite the president of Alfa Bank's comments
at a conference that the need could be as high as $130bn.
• In a report released at the end of June, the OECD said
that Russia's economy will probably shrink 6.8% this year
because the government was slow to launch its anti-crisis
plan. However, the report also noted that a rebound in
energy prices is buoying the economy and has stemmed
capital flight.
• Last month the ruble strengthened to the highest it has
been this year to 30.47 per dollar. Russia weakened its
currency between August and January to protect exporters
after oil prices fell. An emerging markets debt analyst at
Commerzbank said the rebound in the ruble has "added
some degree of allure" to the domestic bond market.
Furthermore, Russian lenders are able to pledge the notes
as collateral for loans from the central banks which is
helping create demand for ruble bonds.
• According to the Micex Corporate Bond Index, rubledenominated
bonds climbed 7.2% this year after falling
19% in 2008. Prices of these bonds have risen as the
ruble has stabilized.
Private Equity
• U.S. corporate giants John Deere, PepsiCo and Boeing
will announce more than $1.5 billion worth of deals in
Russia during President Barack Obama's visit. U.S.
executives often highlight the weak rule of law, high level
of red tape and corruption as the key obstacles for doing
business in Russia, and are likely to raise these issues
when they meet both presidents at a parallel business
summit on 7th July.
• There was slight recovery of private equity deal activity in
the second quarter with the total amount of money
invested up 23% from the previous quarter and a small
collection of buyside deals of more than $500m. Despite
this, banking and private equity heads have remained
reluctant to call a turning point in the market.
Aurora Investment Advisors Comment
• Russia's private equity industry believes that the current
economic situation will provide the catalyst for additional
measures to promote investment. The Government has talked
about the need to improve the country's risk image and attract a
larger volume of investment capital. With rising oil prices, there
was little incentive to do this. The Government's budget is
based on $41 a barrel and Russia still has reserves of
approximately $400 billion. Despite this, the IMF has predicted
that Russia's GDP growth for 2009 will be -6.5%. President
Medvedev is pursuing a clear blueprint for achieving long-term
goals of diversification and greater wealth distribution in the
country. If Medvedev can deliver on his plan, the debt crisis
could serve as a catalyst for reducing risk and fueling
investment in Russia.
• AIA maintains the view that Russia's underserved market, with
over 143 million consumers, will remain a targeted market for
strategics in the consumer, business and financial services
sectors. The current market is providing opportunities for
portfolio companies to increase market share as competitors fall
out of the market.

[davebowler] 09/7/2009 11:30

All was as expected really -they are doing a good job.I just hope new investors come to see that. It just needs one asset sale to boost the price but they will bide their time on that I think.

[das9] 07/7/2009 13:30

daveb: no wonder the sp's rocketing upwards! What did you think of the annual figures?

das

[davebowler] 07/7/2009 12:26

Plus another 500k

[das9] 03/7/2009 11:23

Don't hold your breath, but somebody bought 100000!!

[das9] 01/7/2009 00:01

Well for my part this is a very disappointing day. On the thread we were pretty accurate on estimating the March NAV, but over optimistic as to the discount the market would assign, which comes out at a thumping 77.2 % at the current share price of 24.5 in spite of the hugely improved sentiment since the last figures were published.

A factor apparently ignored is that we could expect the current NAV to be significantly higher: the RTS today is 987 compared with 688 at end March, an increase of 43% .

Evidently the results caused no surprise to the market, which is a pointer to the future. And on to-day's evidence we are miles from sentiment to AURR improving.

das

[davebowler] 30/6/2009 12:16

30 June 2009



Aurora Russia Limited





Results for the full year to 31 March 2009



Focus on improved margins and costs positions investee companies strongly





Financial highlights



Net asset value at 31 March 2009 down 7% to £79.86m or 106.5p per share, compared to £85.58m or 114.1p per share at 31 March 2008
Cash and cash equivalents as at 31 March 2009 were £4.12m, compared to £7.83m as at 31 March 2008
Consolidated net profit for the period of £0.43m (£5.22 million for 15 months to 31 March 2008)
Consolidated earnings per share for the period of 0.57p per share (6.95p per share for 15 months to 31 March 2008)


Operational highlights – Focus on margins and costs



Fully invested with £63.9 million in five companies, four of which are leaders in their field
All companies have adapted to the economic environment by tempering short-term growth in favour of improved margins and a strategy of reducing costs while being careful not to lose market share
Unistream remains confident it can continue growing its revenues through several new initiatives; pushing its intra-Russia remittance volumes where it still has a relatively low market share, expanding in the corridors from CIS to China and Western Europe and improving the efficiency in the existing distribution network
Kreditmart continues its cost reduction plan which started last year and was able to reduce its overhead by approximately 50% compared to the run rate in September 2008, while diversifying its product offering with more emphasis on brokering consumer loans and auto insurance
Flexinvest Bank recently launched a short-term Rouble consumer loan product and has also started offering a deposit product
Recognizing the high growth prospects of OSG, Aurora Russia announced a further US$1 million investment in OSG in the form of a convertible loan facility in March 2009 aimed at helping the company to finance its capital expenditure plans primarily for warehouse racking
SuperStroy remains focused on improving the efficiency of its existing stores through successfully implementing a number of cost reduction initiatives and temporarily putting its expansion plans on hold
Detailed results for the investee companies are contained in the investment management report


Commenting, Dan Koch, Chairman of Aurora Russia, said:



"It is gratifying that despite the difficulties, Unistream, OSG and SuperStroy have continued to grow during this period of financial crisis. We believe that these companies, being national or regional leaders in their respective markets, have also strengthened their market position relative to competitors. Kreditmart and Flexinvest Bank have been more affected by the financial crisis, as expected. However, overheads have been significantly reduced and the product offering diversified. The general feeling in the Russian market is that the worst is over and indications within our investee companies are that there are the beginnings of improvement in the market."

[davebowler] 29/6/2009 13:37

Aurora Russia Limited ("Aurora Russia")

Date of results and Analyst Conference Call



Aurora Russia, the AIM-quoted investment vehicle established to make equity or equity-related investments in small and mid-sized private companies in Russia, will announce its results for the year ended 31 March, 2009, on Tuesday, 30 June 2009.



There will be a conference call for analysts at 9.30am London time. The conference call facility can be accessed by dialing [phone] and quoting conference ID number 3200428. Participants should register for the call at least 5 minutes before the start of the presentation.



A copy of the presentation to accompany the analyst call will be made available on Aurora Russia's website www.aurorarussia.com from 7.00am on Tuesday, 30 June 2009.



For those who are not able to listen to the live call, a replay facility will be available until Monday, 13th July, 2009 by dialing [phone] and entering passcode 3200428# for access.

[envirovision] 23/6/2009 21:25

I suspect a market maker has a thuming great buy order to fill in the background. I'm convinced theres a floor under the current level now. If so quite likely aurrora investments putting their free cash to good use. This means its possible its last calls for getting in at or around 25p imo. Lets see what the next few weeks bring.

[backstairs] 22/6/2009 16:56

Thumping 400k sell this pm: since share price didn't move maybe it will be matched tomorrow.

[das9] 14/6/2009 10:22

It's been a long time coming, but I think we're going to do OK here in the next couple of weeks. Fingers crossed.