Aurrigo Share Discussion Threads

[envirovision] 27/4/2010 16:12

That was a no brainer though, i was buying in at 26p, the company had cash of 55p in varouse banks around the world all in US dollars.

That aside from 100Mill worth of property in and around kiev.

I mean if someone had dropped an atomic bomb on Ukraine, you would still have made around 30p per share profit in the end.

Infact the company was indeed priced for both an atomic bomb plus half its deposit banks around the world to go bust.

Crazy times huh!

[engelo] 27/4/2010 15:11

Enviro: well you certainly got that one right. Wouldn't have gone within 1000 miles of Ukraine a year ago. So exactly the moment to get in!

[envirovision] 27/4/2010 10:28

LOL that was my post, before I signed up with a proper handle and premium account. My head is swelling as i type :-)

[engelo] 27/4/2010 10:21

davebowler: misremembered. DUPD was recommended to you not by you! (131 on old thread.) Very good tip at the time (which I didn't act on either).

[engelo] 27/4/2010 08:46

I agree with enviro's rule that AURR is not for trading: but there are exceptions...

Something interesting going on here, but what??

[davebowler] 26/4/2010 15:02

Hi engelo- I never had any DUPD I'm afraid but I like ASPL a property developer in Malaysia and Vietnam at a 50% discount to asset value.

[engelo] 23/4/2010 10:22

davebowler: good to see you're still here. I had to get out a couple of months ago: very lucky to get back in cheaper. Lets hope that the June statement will give us a boost.

Do you still hold DUPD? Anything else up your sleeve?

engelo

[davebowler] 23/4/2010 09:44

I agree on the timescale-thats why I don't post- but will confidently await £2 per share in a few years.

[envirovision] 23/4/2010 09:42

Oh bad luck there, mind you i would point out its really a buy and hold investment here and not for trading in/out of.

From this level I would expect 500% return at least, in say 3 years max, as you have just seen its pretty illiquid meaning when someone wants to sell a big chunk, the price gets smashed and of course the reverse when they want to buy a big chunk.

[traderinthemaking] 23/4/2010 08:45

It does look very good here. Unfortunately, I had to use the fund put aside into another opportunity so could not jump back in. I wished IG traded it as I still have plenty available on this account...

TITM, who will have to watch this one on the side line unfortunately.

[envirovision] 22/4/2010 20:39

I note Russia sold Eurobonds worth $5.5 billion today in a three times oversubscribed auction.

Moreover the yeilds were between 1.25 and 1.35% over similar US treasury yeilds.

This is a record for Russian bonds and shows it now commands the sort of confidence that most western countries could only dream of and IMO reflects the sheer strengh of growth and recovery Russia is now basking in.

Russia is seen as a desirable credit due to high oil prices, extremely low public debt ratios and fiscal discipline. Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on Tuesday proposed a reform of state finances in order to halve the budget deficit to 3 percent of gross domestic product by 2012.

[envirovision] 22/4/2010 11:58

and who ever was the buyer continues to buy by the looks of things with some chunky buys this am inc 250,000 block buy

[envirovision] 22/4/2010 09:36

I wouldn't have said it was an overhang, it looks like it was someone who had to cash in with a very large stake and there was indeed a buyer, just happened to be around 26p. The ex OSG lot maybe? we might get an rns but then again I only saw around 2.5% of the company change hands to maybe not.

I'm ok with it as it enabled me to increase my stake at this level, which pretty much more than trumps the 40p placing dilution we missed out on by a long chalk.

[hugepants] 21/4/2010 20:20

overhang cleared?

[envirovision] 21/4/2010 16:25

Aurora advisor April report out:



liked the first line: According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Russia's
economy is poised for the "biggest bounce" in the world this
year

[envirovision] 21/4/2010 16:20

Yes not seen this kind of volume since mid August when it rose from 24p to 44p.

[davebowler] 21/4/2010 16:10

Impressive trade volume.

[envirovision] 15/4/2010 17:21

Hold on just seen it was published via plus markets

[envirovision] 15/4/2010 17:17

Well i've no idea what todays price action and markup was all about, but i bought 2 lots today, neither of which were published.

[envirovision] 14/4/2010 16:27

Im inclined to think its the osg lot selling as has been flagged, clearly its no one else as we would have had an RNS, guess we will have to wait till June.Im inclined to buy more but im holding off.

[traderinthemaking] 14/4/2010 13:50

I have been looking on the side line to jump back in but I did put the idea on hold as I am not sure what is going on there... I can't think of any logical reason behind this drop.

TITM

[envirovision] 14/4/2010 12:09

Astonished at the fall, is anyone worried theres something we dont know?

[darcon] 13/4/2010 21:17

The 2009 Western Union annual report is out:

It seems that Western Union have been on the acquisition trail and are continuing to look for further complementary acquisitions:

- in Dec 2008 they acquired 80% of their Panamanian money transfer agent for $35.0m
- in Feb 2009 they acquired European-based Fexco for $243m (including $157.4m of cash consideration)
- on 1 Sept 2009 they acquired Custom House for cash consideration of $371m.

At page 73 it says "Custom House revenues constituted approximately 0.6% of our total revenues for the year ended Dec 31, 2009". According to WU's consolidated income statement their revenues for 2009 were $5.1bn. So the contribution of Custom House Q4 revenues was ~$30m. Multiply that by 4 for a rough approximation of Custom House's annual revenues = $120m. Then divide $371 cash consideration by the $120m Custom House annual 2009 revenue approximation and the acquisition was on an approximate 3.09 multiple to revenues.

This is a really back of the envelope calculation (with no consideration of margins or growth), but if we were to apply this 3.09 multiple to an estimate of Unistream's revenues for 2009(assuming an arbitrary reduction of 30% on 2008 revenue because of the financial crisis, which I am sure will be beaten)of $68.6m we would get a valuation of up to $211.9m of which 26% (ie, AURR's share) would be $55m or £38m before discounting it further to account for it being a minority stake.

And that is nicely above the £29.7m AURR valued its stake in Unistream in Sept 09. It will be interesting to see what the valuation of Unistream at the next AURR update and how Unistream progressed with their strategy for 2009, which we may be able to see once Unistream publishes its 2009 annual report and accounts in English on its website I guess around June 2010

[loobrush] 23/3/2010 21:02

I think that all the drops at the moment could be the end of tax year selling with investors ensuring they have their tax free slice of capital gains, other shares have also dropped similarly for no reason

[envirovision] 23/3/2010 20:37

Yes agree, but then a large part is in my sipp for the long term so im not really bothered short term stuff, of course every one wished they were eg. in JRS since August just selling out right now to switch into AURR, but thats life. I think Darcon has hit the nail on the head.