Aukett Swanke Share Discussion Threads

[rik shaw] 05/10/2007 22:59

See link in Building Magazine on latest regarding potential for merger (or not)

[mistertibbs] 05/10/2007 20:45

The other wee thing I believe in our favour is the recent interim divi of 0.2p. Again, if memory serves me correctly, the Chronic Inverstor thought 0.1p divi for the full year.

p.s. I also calculated p/e with pre tax profits. Ah well, each to their own.

[mistertibbs] 05/10/2007 20:41

Looks to me like some large short positions being taken, or am I mistaken. Just going on the recent announcements.

Anyone take a look at the recent SMC results? Appear to be clearing out some dross and if memory serves me well, I think the shares rose 1.5p after they were announced although certainly lost that and more since.

Still holding.

[marvelman] 04/10/2007 11:36

Bob

If "us lot" had any way of influencing them we would probably use our meagre shares to do that.I am confident I will not be kissing goodbye to my money though.

[marvelman] 03/10/2007 14:56

Imteresting to look at the comparitive market capitalisations AUK is now 2.5 times bigger than SMC with its market cap now standing at a mere £7 million.Not so much a merger as a takeover now...if it happens.

Bought another 8k on the dip as the share price is now totally distorted and out of all proportion to the SMC association.

[silverfern] 03/10/2007 13:28

getting to be a bargain at these levels imho - let's not imiagine they'll be paying over the odds for SMC. Auk want to expand and will pay something for that, but I am guessing should they want to cheerry recruit the best from that outfit they could now afford to.

[masurenguy] 03/10/2007 12:55

Some consistent selling today. No news to prompt this - so it looks like it could be the 'SMC effect' in play !

[nur0mancer] 03/10/2007 12:26

not looking good here, what gives?

[marvelman] 02/10/2007 11:37

Silverfern

The profit after tax in the 6 months just ended was circa 850k...tax was indeed paid @ 30%.

I would double that for the full year and get 1.7 million and then add some for the additional business they are getting, say 2.0 million. Even calculating a p/e using Mas's method (which is I know the STRICTLY correct interprutation) we get a p/e of 9.4


Regards

[silverfern] 02/10/2007 11:24

Hang on- give the losses in recent years would corp tax be due on all that profit?

[marvelman] 02/10/2007 11:03

Thanks for your feedback.

[masurenguy] 02/10/2007 10:55

PE ratios are calculated on profits after tax (PAT) not profits before tax (PBT).

Projected PBT for year ending Sept 2007 is £2.3m. The PAT is therefore £1.6m (assuming 30% CTR) and, at todays share mid price of 12.75p, the current market cap is £18.5m. On this basis the historic PE would be circa 11.5 !

[marvelman] 02/10/2007 10:40

Mas

Would you be kind enough to show me your numbers that make up to the p/e of 11....I get a p/e of 7 with a market cap of 18 divided by a pbt of 2.5

Regards

[masurenguy] 02/10/2007 10:27

SMC (down 22% this morning) seem to be sliding down the proverbial plughole ! AUK has dropped by circa 20% since the merger discussions were revealed in July.

If AUK does come in with a PTP of circa £2.3m for the year just ending then they will be on a modest historical PE of around 11. With no debt, and cash in the bank, they should command a PE ratio in the region of at least 16 and a current share price of around 19p/20p instead of languishing below 13p where they are now. In my view this is due to all of the future uncertainty emanating from the SMC discussions.

AUK is a solid business with good growth prospects of its own. Without some kind of merger/takeover deal there is a fair chance that SMC could go into administration. If that were to happen then AUK would be in a position to cherry pick assets, contracts and key staff at knock down prices without taking on any other known or unknown liabilities. If SMC survive then they will remain in financial difficulty for some time and will be less competitive with someone like AUK on new business pitches.

If AUK were to walk away from these merger discussions then I certainly would come off the sidelines and reinvest, since I believe that the share price would very quickly recover with a short term upside of at least 30%. In this situation other investors would also probably have greater confidence in AUK's longer term prospects. Some clear projections for next year could then be produced without any of the uncertainties that would result from an SMC merger to cloud the whole picture.

[silverfern] 02/10/2007 10:11

SMC is down on the floor today - 20%. I hope this means either AUK is getting it for b/all or they are pulling out. Either way, I don't see it as a bad sign.

[hornets] 25/9/2007 08:09

good statement this morning, agree with Masurenguy that the merger prospect is holding these back. Prospective p/e is only around 8 or 9 with expected profit of £2.3m, surely to low.

[masurenguy] 21/9/2007 17:42

"Masurenguy - 8 Aug'07 - 14:26 - 142 of 155: "mistertibbs - 8 Aug'07 - 14:16 - 141 of 141: Looking back at the number of share purchases by our directors over the past 18 months, do we think they'll want to take such a risk if they didn't think it worth it?"
Many people are undone by unbridled ambition and an inflated ego. Seen it happen many times - not saying that it will here but you can never rule out the possibility !

mistertibbs - 8 Aug'07 - 14:33 - 143 of 155: Mas. Yes, that is the danger.
mistertibbs - 9 Aug'07 - 11:57 - 144 of 155: Mas. If your still there, all I can say at this stage is we are getting involved in a whole heap of unknown. The management of SMC obviously had completely lost it and looks to me at the moment like a nightmare"

Well sadly it looks like the chickens are coming home to roost. I actually sold out for a small profit at 15.3p in early August after the announcement of the merger discussions, with a view of watching from the sidelines while this plays out one way or the other. If they do acquire SMC then they could be swallowing a poison pill. We can only wait and see.

Im sure that the recent fall is due to the prospect of an SMC merger and a collateral placement to raise the recquired funds. If the SMC proposal fails to materiallize then I will quickly get back in.

[silverfern] 21/9/2007 08:30

a dividend is a share of the profit the Board believe can be distrubuted to shareholders on a pro-rata basis. Over time it can mean you get your investment back so that you actual shares are 'free'. For example if you bought Barclays ten years ago, when the shares were 150p you would be getting 40% of the share price back in dividends every year now. But brokers have marked the rice down today simply because the dividend is now paid.

[poor northern boy] 18/9/2007 20:03

generally, the board tell you how much you will get per share.

[iankn73] 18/9/2007 19:03

Thanks Masurenguy,

I thought as much lol! how is the dividend calculated for future reference?

Thank you

[masurenguy] 18/9/2007 18:03

You are dreaming - big time !
The dividend is 0.2p so if you have 15,000 shares you will get a dividend of £30 gross which will probably net out to £24 after deduction of the tax credit.

[iankn73] 18/9/2007 17:51

Chaps,

I'm new to investing and I have approx 15k AUK shares in a SIPP. Am I reading the dividend right by saying I will be entitled to £3k e.g. 15k x 20p per share or am I dreaming?

Thanks