Getting close to the 35p I believe was the low point about six weeks ago.
I still have concerns that the 'partners' knocking on the door will cause a dilution in the existing shares. I know too little to support that claim but that's my 'gut' feel. I'd welcome somebody dispelling that feeling with facts and knowledge. |
Billy, I hope you're right, I only hold a tiny amount here having sold my "free" shares at around £1.4 (luck rather than good judgement). I agree this is a high end project and could be massively successful, but please check the history of one of the main backers, oversubscribed was one of his previous rallying calls at MEN. If it doubled from here it would be back to where it was at the float. |
I wouldn't put a 1p drop on net to no volume whatsoever as judgement how it went.
I watched and it reinforced what we already know.
Partners knocking on the door of Atome wanting to get on board.
Debt over subscribed 5 times.
Long term play. |
Looks like yesterdays presentation didn't go down as planned? |
Thankyou bbd2 and billy3. Good explanations in both posts.
I still feel this project has merit, could generate much profit etc etc.
But, the PL factor! That's the big unknown for me. |
There is an interview on research tree dot come with the CO on yesterdays announcement.
Very reassuring.
Mentioned that Market cap on company is 25 mil and investment values it over double that.
I read somewhere about a cash rate is 2026.
But the recent signed agreement is 1 million up front, 5 million up to FID then the rest on FID. So see no need for any raise at the moment.
He even talked about agreements being a dozen pages now running to 100's as it gets very complex towards FID.
I bought more today to average down as bought higher, but also last week at 34p.
It is still speculative as its not a done deal yet.
But the rewards would be Huge over a few years.
There is also an Investor meet interview next Thursday at 10am which you can sign up to and submit questions in advance.
DYOR |
If they did a placing to raise funds then we would get diluted. A loan would just be a liability on the balance sheet and would only be of concern if the interest payments were offered to be repaid in shares; which would be an immediate red flag and signal to run for he hills. As always, market sentiment does directly affect the SP, and with such a large amount of capital needed, will be based on whether the market thinks they can complete the project, service the debt and make a profit. Unusually, we already have a customer signed up for the end product but will we get there.
Then of course we have the PL factor, which is probably what is driving market sentiment more than anything else at the moment.
My guess is that the share price will recover once the detail of the funding is known and once the project is part completed, a Blue Chip will Swoop in and take it over. |
bbd2: I was hoping you may have been correct in your post # 926 in respect of Green Funds.
But, seeing the inexorable fall in the share price continuing worries me.
Having read the RNS I'm thinking that there may be further dilution of the shares by way of additional investors getting involved.
I have to admit, I am not familiar with these small AIM type setups and the way they raise funding alongside the shareholders. I am reluctant to bore Dake1 - or indeed anyone else for that matter - but could it be that our shares will gradually continue to drift downwards because 'new money' is being injected and, presumably, a share of the pie is being gifted in recompense?
If I am correct then each mention of further financial support/injection will further reduce the share price
I do accept that once progress is being made at a pace and possibly even before production begins the share price may well rise but from a much lower point than I bought in at for the g'kids port's.
Any thoughts? |
Should see some of the green funds starting to take a position now. |
RNS- Phew…… and relax! |
Atome Keynote presenters. |
 There's a tendency when holding investments to want to read what is positive and what reinforces your beliefs.
I hold these in quite small amounts in my three grandkids' trust accounts. They are a 'punt'. When I bought them I seriously had high hopes. The concept sounded sensible. At that time the excess electricity from the Paraguay dam had been secured by Atome and the initial intention was to create green Hydrogen.
Then it was realised that the market for that didn't exist, certainly not locally, and transportation would be costly. A far better business plan was then created by the intent to produce ammonia and from that, fertiliser. Still sound.
Somewhere along the line I got wind of Levine and his past dealings. I became uneasy with his track record and for that reason I didn't increase the small holdings. I did however buy into Rolls Royce for the grandkids. When such were at £1.19. Today, they are almost at £6.30
Now, at the risk of boring you further, I have concluded that to sell the small amount each kid holds would hardly be worth the effort. It wouldn't matter if the share price dropped to a couple of pence - and that may happen. For your and other investors sakes I seriously hope that does not happen.
But, on the slim chance that Atome might be more than an expense account for the Levine family and these shares motor upwards the kids will be quite happy.
So, on the balance of risk/reward I'll pass on selling. I cannot guarantee you'll not be bored in future though - unless you filter me and remain happy in your belief that no detrimental posts being read equals a solid investment.
😂 |
Mcunliffe why don’t you just sell then and stop boring us |
I'm of the same opinion FEWDOLLARS. |
Sold out of these from holding Mrp, president or whatever they changed the name to, tax write off for me luckily made up losses from other trades. Warning to anyone thinking this or anything else Levine is involved with will come good - you have 2 Hopes, Bob and No. |
I found this report from a few days ago:
There's mention of Capex light transportation by Yara. As I figure it, Atome is making ammonium nitrate and will mix this with limestone and nitrogen for the local market but it would seem odd to me to ship the additional weight to Europe via bulk tanker. Better to sell the ammonium nitrate to Yara who will ship that element to Europe to use as an ingredient with locally sourced limestone and nitrogen to make the end fertiliser product.
However, the whole thing relies upon a cheap supply of electric. That is currently available because the hydro plant produces more than is needed - at the moment. If that changes and the electric can be sold elsewhere by the hydro generator (Brazil maybe) then the economics change when the supply contract comes up for renewal. |
Thanks Billy for reminding me of that. |
Here is some relevant info from an update…..
The first project is at Villeta in Paraguay. It benefits from a 145MW renewable power purchase agreement and 30 hectares of land in a tax free zone. Front End Engineering Design studies have been completed and Heads of Terms signed with Yara, the leading international fertiliser company for offtake of all of Villeta's production. The Company is now negotiating the project finance with a view to commencing work by end 2024. There is a further 300MW of renewable power reserved for ATOME in Paraguay.
In Costa Rica, The National Ammonia Corporation S.A. was formed in 2022 with local partner Cavendish S.A. based in Costa Rica to develop green fertiliser projects for the region. As well as straddling the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, Costa Rica is a democratic Central American country. In agriculture, Costa Rica is the second largest supplier of pineapples in the world and is in the top ten banana growers.
All power for ATOME is from 100% renewable sources and all chosen sites are located close to the power and water sources and export facilities to serve significant domestic and then international demand. |
I'm sure they have got a good deal on the electricity, because the power is surplus to requirements at the moment. But in addition to that, Atome's market is fertilisers, which is more certain at the moment than selling hydrogen. |
Their end product is neither hydrogen nor ammonia.
It is fertiliser.
They have an off take agreement for the excess hydro electricity. |
A report in the Daily Mail fin. section today is unsupportive of Hydrogen as a future green energy source. It reports that in Australia where great hopes have been pinned on Hydrogen, together with huge investments, all is not rosy and it may all just be hot air.
It appears to me that producing ammonia is a better bet than pure hydrogen for many reasons but it also appears to me that the cost of the electricity essential for the electrolysis is critical. I hope Atome have negotiated both a low price and a long contract period (at that low price) otherwise this venture may become unaffordable down the line. |
This one smells like president energy aka molecular energy all over again.Shareholders getting shafted big style.Best avoided!! |
Thanks CVH |
SP ANGEL RESEARCH NOTE
House broker share price Angel today (17 February 2025) released an updated research note on the company.
And with news expected imminently, the timing of the release is telling in its own right. Below is an excerpt of the Proactive article:
"ATOME PLC (AIM:ATOM) has started 2025 in a "strong position" to begin construction and make the final investment decision (FID) on its flagship 145MW Villeta green fertiliser project in Paraguay in the first half of the year, says broker share price Angel."
"The developer of green fertiliser projects had a 'buy' rating reiterated by the company's house broker, along with a 200p per share target price, which compares to the last close price of 35p."
"The broker updated its financial projections, too, now forecasting that Villeta's Phase 1 should generate circa US$70 million EBITDA per annum from 2028."
"This followed an update two weeks ago from ATOME, which revealed that detailed work on project finance for the 145MW Villeta Phase 1 green fertiliser project has gathered pace so far in 2025, with significant progress made on multiple workstreams."
"SP Angel highlighted recent news flow in the global hydrogen sector that has been "mixed", with both Equinor and Yara highlighting declining economics associated with 'blue' ammonia projects..."
"Meanwhile, leading global fertiliser companies, the broker also noted, expect growth in the low carbon ammonia market to 24 mtpa by 2032, from close to zero now, owing to the implementation of stringent Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) regulations and carbon taxes in Europe from next year."
"Yara is also planning a transition to low-carbon footprint fertilisers produced with renewable electricity through a portfolio of projects in Norway, the Netherlands, Australia and Paraguay, the broker said."
"Yara’s pivot to a more capex-light strategy should means that focus will be on securing low carbon fertiliser offtake agreements with third parties to supply their international customer base, which is supportive of ATOME’s business model."
SP Angel said, "we expect the company to deliver several near-term valuation catalysts that will de-risk the Villeta development and its forecast stable cashflows..."
A 200p target price says it all!
ATB |
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