Atlantic Global Share Discussion Threads

[blopblup] 05/12/2003 10:23

gone up today nicely,maybe something is afoot????

[ianmacg] 04/12/2003 14:49

You out then morose? I cant see any reason for the dip other than lack of newsflow, so am hanging in there waiting for some, (hopefully) positive vibes. May get out soon though if it dips much further.

[morose] 04/12/2003 14:17

Everyinvestor stop loss for ATL is 66.8p mid price.

Their Portfolio is doing well, not that many failures but ATL looks like being one of them, sad to say.

I bought another Everyinvestor recommendation of last week, ie VAN.
Started off very well , looks encouraging

[ianmacg] 04/12/2003 11:47

Friday, September 19, 2003


Atlantic Global has Corporate Vision of bumper profits ahead


Atlantic Global
Business Summary
Development and sale of computer software.

Market: AIM
Website: www.atlantic-global.net





I took a chance two weeks ago in recommending shares in tiny software company, Atlantic Global, ahead of imminent results. In one sense the gamble didn't pay off- the shares fell sharply after my recommendation and are still modestly down. But the results, and especially the accompanying comments on their new products and the potential for the business, have left me even more convinced that Atlantic is going to be a big, possibly huge, winner for investors.


Market Data
EPIC Company Share Price Market Cap £m PER Dividend Yield% 12-Month hi-lo Company Report
ATL Atlantic Global 83.50 19 138.8 0.60 25.00-89.50



There is so much going on in the stock market, with armies of companies and their public relations representatives fighting for attention from a relative handful of journalists and analysts, that companies with great stories to tell can find that hardly anyone is listening. I think Atlantic Global has a terrific story to tell in terms of products and, equally important, it has the internal management disciplines and financial controls to make sure that a big chunk of revenue falls through to profits. As a result the company has managed the unusual feat for a technology business of growing profits in an almost unbroken line through the worst-ever downturn in the industry. At this rate the company may even one day live up to its wonderfully ambitious name.


Working in partnership with very large corporations
The background to the company is its timekeeping software which plays a central role in running any business with many employees. Central to the group's approach has been its practice of working in partnership with very large companies. This ensures that it creates software that will be genuinely useful to its target customers and helps keep development costs down. Revenues come from an initial charge for the software application plus a further consideration for each position using the software and a recurring maintenance charge running at around 20 per cent of the upfront fees.

An important feature of the software is that it is easy to use so requiring little support and is increasingly delivered over the web further cutting down costs. Growth comes in part from launching new software modules. The latest year has been a big year for development- the company will end the year with six modules against three a year earlier.


Corporate Vision software represents a step change for the company
But the real excitement centres on one of these modules, Corporate Vision, that the company describes as a step change in its development. Corporate Vision stands at the heart of the business process. It enables senior executives to see what is happening to projects within the company in terms of resources being used and milestones being achieved or missed. As well as seeing at a glance what is happening in readily comprehensible terms across often far-flung business empires, top management can drill down through the initial presentation to examine what is happening in greater detail.

Not only does the company have a great new piece of software to stand at the heart of its family of software modules, but it already has an impressive list of some 120 big corporations to whom to sell the new package. It was originally developed in 2001 in partnership with giant US pharmaceutical company, Pfizer; subsequently a more generic version has been developed with Norwich Union with launch planned for November.

At the heart of the sales pitch is the scope to enhance productivity within a business and save costs. Chief executive, Eugene Blair, claims his software should save five per cent of a company's costs and repay their cost of investment in three to six months. Unlike Atlantic's other modules, the sales pitch can be made directly to top-level management whose attention is immediately caught by the benefits on offer. As one executive apparently put it, if they can manage their resources better to save on just one contractor they will already have paid for the package.

Nor will Atlantic Global be stirring up the competition. The software is designed to work in tandem with transactions-based software supplied by industry giants like SAP and Oracle; it also creates work for management consultancies who can build transforming strategies based on operational weaknesses and opportunities highlighted by the software. They are likely to be enthusiastic supporters, and sellers, of Corporate Vision.


Dramatic potential after initial slow build-up
Sales will build up slowly at first. The plan is to have two or three customers in the early months to develop testimonials for the product. After that there is the potential for an explosive roll-out of a product that could have a dramatic impact on profits. This partly reflects the pricing. A typical Atlantic module sells for around £40,000. Corporate Vision, addressing somewhat larger businesses and much higher levels in the corporate hierarchy will have an initial sale estimated around £182,000, over four times as much. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that if the product is a success, and the considerable feedback the group is receiving suggests strongly that it will be, then this company could soon be four or fives times its present size. Not only that but profits would rise even more since the upfront revenues are mostly profit.


Financial Data
Fiscal Year Proj Turnover £m Pretax Profit Change % EPS Change % DPS Change
%
2002 1.55 0.47 NA 1.54 NA 0.50 NA
2003 * n/a 0.70 48.9% 2.00 29.9% 0.60 20%
2004 * n/a 1.00 42.9% 2.90 45% 0.75 25%

EPS - Earnings per Share
DPS - Dividend per Share


Analysts are forecasting profits reaching £700,000 this year against last year's £470,000 and £1m next year. Those projections provide underpinning for a fast-growing business capitalised at £18.9m. But the real interest will come if Corporate Vision is anything like the success expected by the company; those projections, especially for next year, could start to fly higher, taking the shares with them.

The Share Weekly Quality Ratings
Relative Strength 10-year Trend Latest Trading Profit Forecast Ratios External factors TSW Rating
6

[ianmacg] 04/12/2003 11:45

TIP From The Share Weekly

Contract wins boost software developer


Atlantic Global
Business Summary
Development and sale of computer software.

Market: AIM
Website: www.atlantic-global.net



Shares in tiny software developer, Atlantic Global, exploded when the company announced that it had sold a license for its latest and most important software module to Norwich Union for £300,000. That may not seem much in normal corporate terms but it is equivalent to 20 per cent of last year's turnover. More important is the implications it has for the company's future growth. The software module sold to Norwich Union was for 1,500 licenses for its new Adeo Corporate Vision software. Not only does this sale raise the prospect of many more such sales in the future, but the company hopes to use this high-level package to boost sales of the five other software modules it has so far developed. An idea of the significance of the deal is that the news triggered a near trebling of the share price.


Market Data
EPIC Company Share Price Market Cap £m PER Dividend Yield% 12-Month hi-lo Company Report
ATL Atlantic Global 83.50 19 138.8 0.60 25.00-89.50



I have spoken to the company about what is happening, but they have to be guarded in what they say because they are reporting results for the six months to 30 June on 18 September. The Stock Exchange would take a very dim view of it if they told me, or I passed on to you, any insight into what the figures were going to be. However it is encouraging to note that Atlantic described the contract as 'consolidating its position as one of the fastest growing software suppliers in the financial services sector'. This is not the kind of public statement you make when you are about to issue a profit warning. Since 1999 sales have grown every year from £480,000 to last year's £1.55m with profits up from £14,000 to £470,000 and further growth forecast.


Financial Data
Fiscal Year Proj Turnover £m Pretax Profit Change % EPS Change % DPS Change
%
2002 1.55 0.47 NA 1.54 NA 0.50 NA
2003 * n/a 0.70 48.9% 2.00 29.9% 0.60 20%
2004 * n/a 1.00 42.9% 2.90 45% 0.75 25%

EPS - Earnings per Share
DPS - Dividend per Share



Atlantic works with large corporate customers
The key to all Atlantic's software is its simplicity and flexibility. The business began in 1993 and won its first contracts in 1994 and 1995 with Glaxo and Pfizer, pharmaceutical concerns that are among the world's biggest companies. Finance director, Rupert Hutton, tells me that paradoxically the bigger the company the simpler the software has to be. This is because there are so many users. If the software is too complex one of the thousands of users is bound to find some way of beating the system. This happened with the group's time-recording software when a WorldCom employee entered two years of attendance records in advance. When the ruse was discovered, the software was altered to make it impossible to enter data over such a long period in one go.


Growth continued despite WorldCom collapse
WorldCom's collapse was a minor disaster for the group, which had sold the telecoms giant 5000 licenses to its time-recording software. Atlantic makes much of its revenue from maintenance and consulting work. This revenue from WorldCom dried up overnight. However the company is well over the shock and is signing up new customers like Barclays, NEC, LogicaCMG and Norwich Union.

A key element for Atlantic Global in making sales, apart from being vastly cheaper than giant rivals like Oracle and Peoplesoft, is the flexibility of its software. Companies can customise the software in any way they want, meaning that effectively they are buying the capabilities of bespoke software at the price of a package. Users typically pay something upfront for the license plus say £100 per user; in addition they sign up for a three-year maintenance contract at a cost equal to around a third of the original cost of the software. For this they receive regular six-monthly updates of the package.

As with other companies like Trafficmaster, costs are kept low by the 'thin client' business model. In recent years, all Atlantic's software has been moved from the desktop to the Internet. This means that users simply log on to use the software; there are no disks that need to be inserted into the machine; updating is easier and cheaper.

The company began with Time Recording software and has developed variants for companies like computer consultancy LogicaCMG, enabling it to use time recording for its contract employees as well as the regular staff. A division of LogicaCMG is already using four of Atlantic's modules.


'Very, very excited' about new software
The company is particularly excited about the Adeo Corporate Vision software that is aimed at the efficient delivery of business objectives in service-based organisations. The company describes the module as its new Business Portfolio, Project, Resource and Milestone Management software. Developed initially with Pfizer, it enables top management to keep in touch with all the projects going on within a large and far-flung business.

Not only can top management keep in touch with the progress being made, such as whether promised milestones are being achieved, but it also makes it possible to use company resources more efficiently. Hutton says there are many examples of companies calling in expensive outside experts when there were people within the company that could have done the job.

I expect to learn more on 18 September when I will be meeting the company again, but it is clear that Atlantic's board and tiny staff of just 17 employees feel they are just at the beginning of an exciting period of growth. Given that the group is working with some of the world's biggest and most powerful business across a range of industries, it is easy to imagine that they really do have a large opportunity. It is always a little nerve-wracking to buy shares that have jumped so strongly ahead of an announcement. But my guess is that the potential rewards far outweigh the risks.


The Share Weekly Quality Ratings
Relative Strength 10-year Trend Latest Trading Profit Forecast Ratios External factors TSW Rating
6

[blopblup] 04/12/2003 07:43

I've not heard from the company but will keep everybody posted should I do!! Good post eibbor,I remember the tip.

[eibbor] 03/12/2003 18:15

ATL was recommended in a tip sheet (everyinvestor) and a stop loss was advised at 66p or 67p. The same tipster just wrote a piece on the importance of following stop losses and as this one was nearish I reckon the MM's decided to trigger it to get a bit of action (or maybe just for a laugh since they are such jolly fellows) ;-)

[morose] 03/12/2003 16:22

I also think it's the mm's, and they have increased the trades with their tactics, but no great volume to justify the falls.
They keep trying this tactic in fits and starts but the share is now on a significant falling trend and the only way up now is some institutional interest or some news of sales and contracts, otherwise I can see further declines back into the 50's.

[blopblup] 03/12/2003 13:27

Personally morose i don't foresee a problem as the company are fairly confident and just think it's people selling to raise cash for chrimbo or otherwise.Anymore more dips and I shall buy into the weakness!I have alot of faith here but will see what they tell me and keep everybody informed.Obviously each to their own but i think the mm's are just shaking the tree again!!!

[morose] 03/12/2003 12:01

I think it's just lacking in newsflow, and the decline is the MM's trying to drum up some trade.

Unfortunately for holders like myself, there doesn't seem to be any newsflow.
It appears that they are not selling their products as quickly as forecast.
Maybe the competition just too great, who knows if they don't issue any information updates.

I can't make up my mind whether or not to sell, have ignored my stop loss to my peril.
I guess its not a good idea to hold just because you think it will shoot up again as soon as you sell.

[blopblup] 03/12/2003 11:37

Not really no idea.I shall have to contact the company.

[bhaskar2212] 03/12/2003 10:40

blopblup, any idea why the price is going down??.. any results expected in this month??

[blopblup] 03/12/2003 10:38

Maybe one day..."he who dares" as Dell-boy keeps saying!!!

[morose] 01/12/2003 19:58

A flurry of trades for the last hour or so - is this share about to wake up??

[morose] 29/11/2003 15:02

Another month slips by and still no direction for ATL share price.

5 months now since it had any direction.

How much longer can I hold out with this one?

Surely there must be some newsworthy activity soon!!

It's turning into a major disappointment for me, especially after i recommended it to my share club we have just sold out in accordance with our stop loss policy.

[blopblup] 20/11/2003 18:26

From ATL to reassure us:

There is no reason for the recent share price movement. The volume of shares traded is particularly low.
I can only think it is small shareholders doing some profit taking in the lead up to Christmas.

As you can see from the latest RNS announcements, all the news coming out from the company
is positive with the recent appointment of our new chairman David Cox who had substantial responsibility
for sales at a senior level in IBM.

I hope this helps...

[blopblup] 20/11/2003 18:18

it will come..look at rtd..been a dog since sept and then wap...up 15%!!!

[morose] 19/11/2003 21:10

let's hope its not much longer.
Some newsflow overdue now IMO

[ianmacg] 19/11/2003 14:43

Just a waiting game now for some good RNS news, then watch them go again.

[blopblup] 13/11/2003 12:38

ok meg,why don't u ring them instead of others to do your dirty work and then give us your conclusions!I'm not naive,i rung back few months ago and i don't want to appear to be a pest.

[mug punter] 13/11/2003 11:18

morose,

Thanks, I appreciate your input re. your contact with the company.

My point was that its always better to speak directly to the company, (the CEO or FD) as opposed to emails, which is usually possible in smaller companies which are not big enough to justify an investor relations department.

Of course they are extremely reticient to discuss market senitive information but often a useful conclusion can be reached from what they say and how they say it.


Regards,

Mug Punter

[morose] 13/11/2003 11:05

Mug p

Have done that myself,hence post 649.

I may be naive, matter of opinion, but I was happy enough after my 10 minute chat yesterday.
Don't think there's any bad news in the cupboard, maybe the growth rate is not as rapid as hoped for but the new director is expected to help get things moving a bit quicker.


Over all, I just got the feeling that I should be a bit more patient waiting for the action.

[mug punter] 12/11/2003 21:32

blopblup,

Your naiivity amazes me - what the hell do you expect them to say?

If there was any bad news, which I am absolutely sure there is not, do you honestly think they would pass on market sensitive information to you before informing the market?

For a small cap illiquid stock to drop on minimal volume is just normal market noise.

If you are going to speak to a company try telephoning them and reading between the lines of what they (cannot) say.

[blopblup] 12/11/2003 21:18

I have had an email from ATL,saying they do not not why the price is going down and that nothing has changed.Probably people taking profits for christmas or to move money in other shares like CYH.This is very true when we consider the trades have been very small and mm's have taken the opportunity to buy them at a cheaper price.