Atlantic Global Share Discussion Threads

[blopblup] 12/11/2003 14:29

Morose,my mate..this is spooky,I've just sent some e-mails to ATL asking about the shareprice movement.I will keep thee informed but I'm very hopeful.Sorry again for calling you names other day.I apologise once again.

[blopblup] 11/11/2003 15:32

ok I apologise,It's a waiting game until something comes along.If you are really bothered,why not drop a line to Atlantic,speak to management and find out what's happening.I'm sure they won't mind,infact I know they wont mind because i've done it myself in the past.Go on morose,give 'em a call and ask for Rupert hutton.

[wolstenhulme] 11/11/2003 12:11

Anyone know why ATL are falling at the moment?

[wolstenhulme] 11/11/2003 12:11

Anyone know why ATL are falling at the moment?

[blopblup] 10/11/2003 17:05

Blimey we are touchy!!!So share that's risen from 30p to 90p and a company that is profitable and which pays a divi counts for nothing!!!I think you've been watching too much what's been happening at cybit etc to air the views that you have done.OK then sell and buy Cybit!!!!

[morose] 10/11/2003 16:12

Someone with a stupid name like BLOPBLUP has the cheek to call me a nitwit.

Sounds like you've had one over the eight to me!

This share has trawled along doing nothing much for 4 whole months which is a long time in stock market terms, very little newsflow to justify the previous hype, so why shouldn't I express some concern?

It's beginning to look way overvalued due to the previous media hype, and the term the "new gresham computer" looks extremely far fetched now.

So stuff that in your bubble pipe, blopblup

[ianmacg] 10/11/2003 15:53

Why not top up. Nothings changed to bring it down like this, or has it?

[blopblup] 10/11/2003 14:54

Ah,stop panicking you nitwit!!!!For god's sake it has a good ride and will no doubt release annoucements as and when necessary.Chill-out,ride-out the boring days!

[morose] 10/11/2003 14:50

Have to say, I'm getting concerned about this one now.
All newsflow has dried up, hardly any volume, looking a bit iffy to me.
Needs to be a lot more dynamic to meet earlier expectations, some news from the company is sorely needed to stimulate interest and get things moving upwards again

[blopblup] 24/10/2003 18:30

The following article explains why one should not turn their nose at a good bussiness model,which ATL is one of a few at the moment:

Ignore the noise and numbers- buy good businesses
There are many different styles of investing. Some people specialise in sectors like technology or healthcare; others favour shares that look cheap in relation to earnings or assets. There are publications devoted to low-priced penny shares. My approach is none of these but is also very simple. I like to recommend shares in good businesses. I don't much care about the price and I don't claim any special expertise on when to buy or sell. Once I find a good business I recommend the shares; if I am not sure, I don't make a recommendation.

The simplicity of my approach helps me deal with the pressure of having to come up with new investing ideas week after week. People often ask me where the ideas come from. The answer is that they are not ideas. I spend my whole time studying the stock market looking for just one thing, good businesses. If I am right about the business, the shares will do well, and vice versa.

Many people fail in the stock market because they are trying to do contradictory things. They are trying to both pick the best shares and time their buying and selling. For instance, the national and Sunday newspapers are full of sell recommendations for shares. These sell recommendations are typically based on what I regard as ephemeral or highly subjective factors. For example, they might recommend selling because two directors have sold shares or because the shares have gone up too much. I don't pay the slightest attention to these recommendations.


Take newspaper sell recommendations with a pinch of salt
The main reason why newspapers make sell recommendations is to draw the attention of readers to the fact that they recommended the shares at a lower price. Thus any share that rises a huge amount will do so against the background of numerous sell/ take profit recommendations. If you listen to these you risk missing out on the biggest source of wealth in the stock market – the one that comes from buying shares in a great business and holding them for years and years.

This is one of the reasons why the founders and major shareholders in a business are so often the ones that make the most money. They either have no thought of selling or make minor sales periodically to realise some cash with little thought to whether the timing is good or not. Investors with small shareholdings who are continually wondering whether to sell or not are at the mercy of over-reacting to swings in sentiment or minor negative developments that don't really matter.

Imagine if Warren Buffett came into work one day and found that two of his fellow directors had sold shares in his master company, Berkshire Hathaway. If he said, right, that's it, I'm out and put his entire holding on the stock market, everyone would think he had gone mad. Yet many small investors do just that. In my view the only time when directors' sales carry a message is when they are heavy sellers in a weak market; that is a serious warning signal. It is also close to being criminal behaviour because if they know something that would make the shares fall they should tell the market.


Valuation is far less important than finding good businesses
Excessive attention to valuation risks the same absurdities. Analysts' notes are often incredibly precise in their approach to valuation and make elaboration comparisons between valuations of shares in similar sectors. I guess there is a deep-seated human need to try and impose order and a scientific approach on the chaos and uncertainty that makes up the stock market. The reality is that most stockbroker research is trying to do the impossible. It may be interesting and provide food for thought; it is a million miles from being the last word on the subject.

Stockbroker, Peel Hunt, has just produced a note on one of my recommendations, Knowledge Technology Solutions. When I asked KTS chief executive, Dr Marc Pinter-Krainer to tell me what was in the note, he sounded slightly uncomfortable when he said that for the year to 30 June 2006, Peel Hunt was forecasting sales of £8.1m and profits of £4.4m. Last year's turnover at KTS was £161,000 against £76,000 the year before. In the current year annualised revenue is running at over £500,000; that is great progress and certainly suggests that much higher sales are possible by 2005-06. But attempts to quantity the number are either guesses or some form of simple regression analysis; let's project the trend forward a few years into the future and see what happens. It begs the really interesting but much tougher-to-answer question of whether the trend will stay the same, improve or deteriorate.

It is instructive to look at old copies of Company Refs, a publication that carries stockbroker profit forecasts for quoted companies, usually for two years ahead. Compare those forecasts to what actually happens and usually, especially where it matters, they are spectacularly wrong. The truth is that I am not very interested in analysts' notes on companies, though talking to a good analyst can be instructive.


Shares in good businesses are always cheap
It is a bit like that old saw of wiseacre investors that the important stuff about companies is buried in the notes to the annual Report & Accounts. Maybe it is and maybe you will enjoy finding it if your favourite leisure activity is reading the telephone directory. Unfortunately, I have a low boredom threshold and find the front end of the report and accounts, the chairman's statement and chief executive's report on operations, both far more interesting and more useful. This is partly because I think it is usually fairly obvious when you find a good company. If you have to spend hours with a wet towel wrapped around your head studying the fine print, the company sounds to me as though it probably isn't worth the bother. But it is also because much of my interest is not in the nitty-gritty of the figures but in the capabilities of the person, or people, behind the company . I learn more by reading what they say and by actually talking to them than I ever will from last year's numbers.

My attitude long ago led me to conclude that trying to value companies is mostly a waste of time. Remember what I said in the first paragraph about finding good businesses being the key to successful investing. Imagine if I said to myself that the companies I found had not only to be good businesses but also had to be cheap. Very often these twin objectives would be in conflict. The truth is that shares in good businesses are almost always cheap in the stock market whereas those in bad businesses are always expensive.

Many investors imagine that the late 1990s and early 2000 saw a crazy period in the stock market when all shares were grotesquely over-valued. But that is not really true. The real bubble in that period was that many poor-quality businesses were on ludicrous valuations. I admit that many good businesses were also on valuations they could not sustain. But the problem there was mainly cyclical. Between early 2000 and early 2003 demand in many industries collapsed or at least had a bumpy ride. This hit most companies. But the good companies will recover and eventually their shares will scale new peaks. It is only the shares in the bad businesses that will prove to be have been over-priced even for the long-term investor.

[morose] 23/10/2003 14:16

blopblup

exactly - i was being cynical.

I can't see any signs of investor or institutional interest, can you?

[blopblup] 21/10/2003 18:46

morose,
If there is a demand then should the price of the stock be raised to fulfil the demand???

[morose] 21/10/2003 15:46

bb

these could be sells hence the price falling?

still waiting for the buys resulting from the director selling to meet "investor demand"

[blopblup] 21/10/2003 14:46

vey quietly somebody is buying some large number of shares???Any idea anyone.

[blopblup] 21/10/2003 11:14

I've noticed tranches of 10000 shres going thru these past 2 days.Anybody would like to enlighten me.

Thanks.

[blopblup] 20/10/2003 11:36

Just mm's shaking the tree,no news flow I can see.

[morose] 20/10/2003 10:03

What's happening today?

Any newsflow anyone?

[blopblup] 18/10/2003 15:42

COLLINS STEWART
SUMMARY
We believe Atlantic Global's new enterprise planning software product 'Corporate Vision'
offers the opportunity for a step change in profitability in 2004.
Interim results were in line with expectations with an operating profit pre goodwill amortisation of
£288k reported on turnover of £907k. The balance sheet remains strong with net cash up to £1.9m.
Contracts announced in 2003 include amongst others Norwich Union, Telewest and NEC
Technologies and demonstrate that Atlantic continues to win new clients, as well as expand its
offering to existing customers. We now estimate that maintenance and service revenues in 2004 are
likely to cover costs, leaving the bottom line strongly geared to new licence wins. This creates the
possibility of a step change in profitability, particularly given the introduction of the new enterprise
product 'Corporate Vision'.
'Corporate Vision', an enterprise wide budgeting, planning and resource management system, is
currently being launched. In comparison to Atlantic's five existing software modules, which carry an
activation fee of between £1k and £7.5k, we believe 'Corporate Vision' activation fees alone will be
a minimum of £100k, probably higher. Consequently, 'Corporate Vision' offers the opportunity for
large increases in turnover and more importantly profit. The initial reception to 'Corporate Vision'
from the existing customer base has been enthusiastic and thus our forecast of three £200k deals in
2004 could prove very conservative.
18th September 2003 Smaller Companies Research
Collins Stewart Ltd is stockbroker to Atlantic Global and makes a market in
the company's shares. As broker to the company, we make no recommendation and
leave investors to draw their own conclusions over the potential for the shares.
Price: 79.5p Mkt Cap: £18.1m FTAAll Share: 2124
Year to December 2001A 2002A 2003E 2004E
Turnover (£m) 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.6
CS pre-tax (£m) 0.5 0.4 0.7 1.0
CS EPS (p) 2.6 1.4 2.1 3.0
EPS growth (%) – -45 45 46
Dividend (p) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.75
Dividend cover (x) 1.9 1.1 2.1 2.7
CS PER 30 55 38 26
Dividend yield (%) 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9
Year to December 2001A 2002A 2003E 2004E
Net (debt)/cash (£m) 2.1 1.9 2.2 2.7
Gearing (%) -42 -37 -42 -49
Operating margin (%) 32 14 21 28
PEG – – 0.9 0.6
NAV (p) 25 23 23 25
Relative to 1mth 3mths 12mths
FTAAll Share +16 +38 +106
FTSE Small Cap +13 +27 +79
Share Price Performance
Forecasts Financial Ratios
2 18th September 2003
COLLINS STEWART
Interim results showed a 5% increase in sales to £907k and flat interim
profit of £288k, in line with expectations. This was a credible result with
Atlantic absorbing an increased operational cost base of £58k, which
should provide a foundation for continued growth. Net cash at June 2003
was £1.9m, up from £1.8m, maintaining Atlantic's balance sheet
strength.
The outlook statement highlighted that the level of interest in the
company's software was the highest in Atlantic's history and that profit
should be higher in the second half and beyond. Further Atlantic expects
'... to sign contracts with a number of new and existing customers in the
near future'.
Eugene Blaine, the current Managing Director, founded Atlantic in 1993.
In June 2001 the company reversed into a shell on AIM and raised
£1.45m (net of expenses) at 25p per share. The final deferred payment
associated with this transaction was made in 2002.
Atlantic Global develops and sells software, branded 'Adeo', which
improves operational efficiency, particularly in relation to resource
management, in virtually any organisation. The software is sold in
modules that can be combined to create a complete business solution or
used in their own right.
All 'Adeo' modules were designed in partnership with Atlantic's blue
chip client base. Typically a client will partially fund development in
return for participating in the design phase and receiving a discount on
the initial licence fee. Atlantic always retains all the associated
Intellectual Property.
Atlantic's software is designed to be user friendly and intuitive to use: it
is also easily deployed (typically between four and twelve weeks,
depending on complexity). Given that pricing tends to be economical,
return on investment for clients is high with payback usually within three
to six months.
At present there are six modules that we outline below; all of which can
be integrated with any existing software such as Microsoft, SAP or
Oracle.
The original module, launched in 1996, and still by far the most widely
used. Adeo Time & Expense automates the entry, tracking and reporting
of time and expense information. This generates management
information about how resources are being used, which enables
operational efficiencies to be made.
INTERIM
RESULTS
CORPORATE
HISTORY
ACTIVITIES &
PRODUCTS
Time & Expense
Tracking
18th September 2003 3
COLLINS STEWART
This module provides the capability to enhance the internal tracking
mechanisms within a company. Information on all business contacts can
be stored centrally, be they customers, suppliers or advisors. Any
interaction can be defined and subsequently tracked to giving a
comprehensive record of the total knowledge base of the organisation.
This software provides a solution for managing relationships with
contractors. It tracks individual contract details and automates the
collation and reconciliation of incoming invoices. It provides for rate
analysis and accrual handling as well as skills profiling to ensure best
value across a range of suppliers. This was originally developed in
conjunction with GlaxoSmithKline and Pfizer and the new web version
of the software has already been sold to Norwich Union.
The Risk Management module helps to make the risk assurance function
of a company more pro-active. It ensures that all categories of risk are
identified and that mitigating actions can be defined and tracked to
completion. This was originally developed with LogicaCMG and
Barclays Bank Plc.
A task based planning tool that gives visibility of the forecast workload
for a company, ensuring consistent and visible planning. It contains an
intelligent resourcing capability, which helps ensure that the right
resources are allocated based on skills and availability. As well as
planning directly in Adeo, the tool is also capable of linking to Microsoft
Project, if required.
This is the newest and most exciting of Atlantic's products. Branded
'Adeo Corporate Vision' it builds on the other modules to provide a
means of planning and monitoring projects, scheduling resources and
forecasting costs and revenue at an enterprise level. We focus in more
detail on Corporate Vision later.
Organisations initially pay a one off activation fee for each module, then
buy licences for individual users. In addition, maintenance fees of
between 30% and 40% of the licence fee are charged on an annual basis.
Service revenues for consultancy and installation are also common.
The activation keys for the first five modules are typically between £1k
and £7.5k with licences fees of the order of £100 per seat. We believe the
new 'Adeo Corporate Vision' product will carry an activation fee of at
least £100k, usually much more, and a licence fee in the region of £175
per resource. Maintenance fees will be c.20% pa. Hence the opportunity
for a step change in profitability we discuss later.
Business Information
Tracking
Contractor
Management
Risk Management
Planning and
Resourcing
Corporate Vision
BUSINESS
MODEL
4 18th September 2003
COLLINS STEWART
Organisations tend to buy licences in blocks. By allowing existing
customers of, say, Time & Expense, to trial some of the other products,
using spare licences, Atlantic has expanded the portfolio of products sold
to existing clients. Consequently, repeat sales are high, which together
with the relatively high level of the maintenance contracts provides
decent ongoing visibility to the top line.
Atlantic Global's customer base is striking for a company of its size, with
the first five modules having sold about 21,000 licences to companies
including AstraZeneca, GlaxoSmithKline, Pfizer, Ericsson, Virgin
Mobile, Allied Irish Bank, Barclays, LogicaCMG, Norwich Union and
the Metropolitan Police. This shows that Atlantic's products are
applicable across numerous industries, providing a wide potential
customer base. It also highlights that Atlantic is not dependent on any
single sector of the economy.
Adeo Corporate Vision represents the real excitement at Atlantic and
hence it is worth providing a little background on how it was developed.
Back in 2001 Pfizer were looking for a software development house with
experience in the field of project planning on a large scale, and as a result
of previous experiences chose Atlantic. Atlantic then developed an early
version of Adeo Corporate Vision for desktop use and deployed it in
November 2001. This was implemented in a division of about 1,000
people and resulted in significant savings, giving Pfizer a very quick
return on their investment.
The original desktop product was then further enhanced and developed
into a web-based form in conjunction with Norwich Union. This
development phase has taken nine months and the costs of development
were broadly borne equally. Upon successful completion of phase one of
the development project, NU purchased an activation key, licences and
support for 1,500 resources in a contract worth £300k. All intellectual
property developed has been retained by Atlantic Global and the
resultant shrink-wrapped product is now being marketed to Atlantic's
customer base.
In essence Corporate Vision will integrate strategic planning, execution
and performance measurement across an organisation into one single
system. This will eliminate the current trend for use of multiple solutions
and provide management at every level of the organisation with a means
to track performance and model and implement strategies with accurate
data in real time. This is turn should allow optimisation of budgeting,
planning and resource allocation, thereby increasing efficiency and
delivering cost savings.
CUSTOMER
BASE
ADEO
CORPORATE
VISION
Adeo Corporate Vision was launched at an Atlantic user group in July
with Atlantic's web site talking of an 'overwhelming positive response
from users to Corporate Vision's unique approach to simplifying the
management of budgets, portfolios, resources and milestones'. This has
necessitated a need for a series of breakfast seminars so that customers
can see Corporate Vision in more detail. Given that each licence sale will
be well over £100k, this forms the basis for our opinion that Atlantic
could be on the verge of a step change of profitability and underpins our
continued positive stance on the stock.
Aside from the £300k Corporate Vision licence from Norwich Union,
the financials to date are based on the sales of the basic five modules. In
fact Time & Expense Tracking has accounted for the majority of
turnover to date, the other products have been making more of an impact
in 2003 but are not yet significant contributors.
Consequently the Time & Expense Tracking module is in its own right
profitable and cash generative and more than covering the entire cost
base of the company, including the development of the new products. We
would expect the basic five software modules to continue to show strong
organic growth, particularly as the upside from resale of the products
launched in 2003 (Contractor Management and Risk Management) is yet
to be reflected in the reported figures.
On top of the growth we anticipate from what we have termed the five
basic modules, has to be added the sales of Adeo Corporate Vision. It is
at this point that forecasting becomes difficult. Given that group costs in
2004 will more or less be covered by maintenance and services revenue,
new licence sales of Corporate Vision which carry a very high gross
margin, should drop into net profit. In 2003 we assume no further sales
of Corporate Vision due to the likely length of the sales cycle and
integration process. In 2004 we have assumed three £200k sales. In
reality we believe these forecasts will probably prove far too pessimistic
but at this early stage we would prefer to upgrade on newsflow when
there is better visibility to 2004. Investors may have their own view on
what Corporate Vision licence sales are possible and may wish to take
account of this when valuing Atlantic.
Atlantic is cash generative and historically has converted its operating
profit into operating cashflow, we expect this to continue in the future.
Net cash was £2.1m at September 2003 leaving Atlantic with no finance
risk and well capitalised.
COLLINS STEWART
18th September 2003 5
FINANCIALS
COLLINS STEWART

[blopblup] 15/10/2003 14:51

Quite alot of buys,seems to me that the momentum is now picking up on ATL.This could be the beginning of something big.

[blopblup] 15/10/2003 14:47

babolat,thanks..4 or 5 times will do very nicely..upwards and onwards,here we come!!!

[morose] 15/10/2003 12:32

Seems to be trying to break out of its recent trading range.

Hopefully it will now push into the 90 - 100p range and not slip back as it has been doing recently.

Onwards and upwards from here on

[babolat] 15/10/2003 11:43

blopblup
They talk about their software modules, in particular 'Corporate Vision' , which has been well received and suggest that the company could increase in size by 4 or 5 times, if the product is a success.

[blopblup] 15/10/2003 11:26

Babolat,any idea what the giste of the report was???