Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/1/2017 15:14

Anyone know why the Kitco Copper price is always out of step with the Bloomberg/COMEX Copper prices..? currently $2.66/$2.69/lb..?

[charlieeee] 24/1/2017 14:47

Iankn

The court case is significant.

If it goes against ATYM,the "debt free" certainly no longer applies and several installments would be due as of now.

That puts ATYM in a category more akin to WTI, than in a class of its own.

The comparison is easy to make.

ATYM guided at 2017 production of 30,000 to 40,000 tonnes and WTI at 20,000 (and possibly a further small scale mine coming back into production at these copper prices).

Both with cash costs under $2 per lb (WTI targeting $1.75 per lb).

Currently, WTI has over $100m of debt, some due shortly and the rest scheduled through to 2020. If the court case goes against ATYM, then its total debts will not be much shy of the same $100m.

Re WTI, the market cap is a fraction of that here and that is because the market is pricing in the risk associated with that level of debt in a start up situation.

For those who do not know WTI, the major share holder is Orion (one of our "big four") and they also hold the debt, having 100% financed the mine build.

Quite an interesting comparison in fortunes, but it does put the Aster case consequences into perspective.

[nedludd] 24/1/2017 14:20

In my post 4356 dated 9th.December I made a guestimate of what the share price might be at the end of 2017 at £2.47. I thought I would re-examine the figures and have revised my forecast based on current knowledge.

I used a profit forecast of £60m which I took from other posts, but now feel a figure of nearer £40m is reasonable. Using the figures of £183m Market Cap. £40m profit, a current bid price of £1.55 and increase percentages of 22% and 20% my forecasts for the year end now becomes £2.26. These figures will change as time goes on but I thought I would amuse myself by having another look.

In the same post I discussed the Potential P/E ratios and how I did not feel comfortable with the higher figures ( nearer 10 in some cases). For what it is worth, my Stockbroker has given figures of 4.3 for 2017 and 3.8 for 2018. Where they get them from I can`t say but they would know more than me.

All thoughts from a newbie, of course.

[iankn73] 24/1/2017 13:59

I can't see us going much further until after the court case on Monday as this should be well beyond 155/160 by now with the current copper price and yet it seems doggedly stuck in this range, so I can only put it down to imminent astor case and investors sitting on the fence for now.

I hope I'm wrong and it breaches £1.60 before then.

[wanderer1210_0] 24/1/2017 13:21

Copper knocking on the door of £2.70 again, currently £2.6960

[rougepierre] 24/1/2017 13:05

inside information....naughty...

[shortarm] 24/1/2017 11:59

This one?Just a guess ;-)Copper 267 and a half....

[langostino] 24/1/2017 11:54

In what universe would a director buy a few days before a court case that could significantly reduce the share price?

[waterloo01] 24/1/2017 11:40

Copper's up again.

[husbod] 24/1/2017 10:47

Wouldn't it be nice if it were directors' buys. The newish Finance Director still hasn't bought.

On the other hand they could be in a closed period due to negotiations on an acquisition.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/1/2017 10:44

Yup SBT, I can sell all for 156p, so there's something being worked in the background.., Copper now @ $2.65, and we should tick up again today.. :o)

[superbobtaylor] 24/1/2017 10:39

Cu @2.65....

[shortarm] 24/1/2017 09:11

And that's 4,500 of them gone - a bargain for someone!

[shortarm] 24/1/2017 08:15

5,000 for sale at 157 if anyone wants em?After that 159 for 10k Max, can still sell loads.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 23/1/2017 21:20

Hoping it hasn't run out of steam for ATYM HG.., a few sellers out today and they were all mopped up with the bid not moving much, so we could well have some orders getting filled in the background, Copper is strong and still $2.60+ ..

Next significant news point for us is our Astor court case on 30.01.2017, and how long it takes after that to get a judgement, and what the result is..

Next financials for the FY2016 won't be until April now..

40,000 Tonnes of Copper in 2017 = c88M/lbs
With Copper @ $2.60/lb
$1.80/lb AISC / $2.00 C3 costs with depreciation accounted for.
0.60c/lb gross margin
0.50c/lb net margin of payable copper after discounts/penalties/Silver credits
$44M Gross profit P/A or $11M per quarter, with no Tax/Interest to pay for 2017/18
EPS $0.54..?
Forward P/E of 3.4..?
Comparable P/E an established Copper miner..?

[shortarm] 23/1/2017 20:37

Head - that seems like a crazy deduction from what we're seeing!?

[head gardener] 23/1/2017 18:58

Please just look at the wider market, I maybe totally wrong but this market is running out of steam, reducing your holdings in my mind is prudent, as a LTH, you can always buy back.

[sirmoori] 23/1/2017 18:26

Your speculation is probably better than mine, but at the start of trade we had 1 v 2. The MM on the offer absorbed that large sell of 37K. On past form we would have expected that to close at substantially under the offer. It did not. Nor did the same MM move off the offer. Instead, we saw a second MM move onto the same offer price. Between then, they absorbed all the other sells, including some fairly large deals - a 12.3K, a 10K a 5, 10 and 8. All of these were at or above the offer.

My deduction is that there is one or possible more large, limit buys currently being worked. My guess is that limit is probably at 155.5 and it has yet to be filled.

As to pressure on the bidding MMs, although there were a couple of fairly big buys, the total did not move two MMs off the bid. That could be because they are holding some limit sells or because MMs talk to each other and transfers between them occur on commission, when an order has to be filled.

[acamas] 23/1/2017 17:46

Why has the share price not moved today? All those sells and a few buys yet the price holds. Attempting to read what the game is from the data we hold is like guessing how two rolled dice will turn up imo

[shortarm] 23/1/2017 13:17

Finally you can buy 7,500 at 159.4

[shortarm] 23/1/2017 11:59

Somebody else got bored and let 10k shares go...Still can't buy any :-(

[rougepierre] 23/1/2017 10:27

Thanks for that CuFe, which all makes sense...

And of course a large bidding position may well be dictated by a large and ongoing buying order...

But what I don't get is how the 'Quote' can be 151/158 (as it was last week at one point) when I can get an electronic bid for 50,000 shares well inside the Quote...

So my beef is really with AIM Market Regulation. I managed to re-establish a dialogue with them last week and although it may be an illusion, the Quote does actually have seemed to be exactly where the market really is for the last 8-10 dealing hours...

You see I don't think there should be any mechanism that results in an unrepresentative bid, the consequence of which COULD be that the MMs get stock lower than otherwise thanks to naive or uninformed investors NOT having access to 6 MMs directly or indirectly through TDDI...

Good to read such an objective, thoughtful and reasoned response CuFe...cheers.

Onwards and upwards...

[shortarm] 23/1/2017 09:10

Apparently someone sold 37k shares at 155So why are non available still!?!??

[pawsche] 23/1/2017 08:10

... when they're green, yes. :-)

[erric] 23/1/2017 07:47

Don't you just love vertical lines on the copper chart first thing Monday ?