Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 14/12/2016 14:23

#RP, our AISC are @ $1.80/lb not including DA, add them in for accounting and our bottom line costs are $2.00/lb.

Our gross profit margin before tax @ $2.60 Copper,(payable Copper $2.50/lb) is $0.50/lb.

So Q4's 10,000 Tonnes or 22M/lb = $11M, there is no T/I or A for a couple of years yet with all our losses carried forward and Capital allowances to consider.

Call it $44M a year @ 0.50/lb profit.., I will take that for starters, and the upside for Copper could double that..!

Maiden profit Q4, and FY 2016..

[husbod] 14/12/2016 10:59

Thanks rouge - nothing better than reading an article that contains technical/factual data that supports your own gut instinct.

Pretty convincing I have to say. And what about all those Indians moving into cities. Everyone seems to forget that India could well overtake China in terms of population and has a hugely greater proportion of young and therefore more productive people.And Indians like gadgets and all the trappings of middle class lifestyle just as much as the Chinese. And they also share all the pollution problems that will need clean technology solutions. Copper just has to be the main man in commodities terms.

[rougepierre] 14/12/2016 10:26

Whoever is selling these 5,000s is either very naive or a professional market manipulator...ignore...

[rougepierre] 14/12/2016 10:24

Did you forget the Admin costs LLB? I think your calculation is Gross Profit?

I make EBITA more like $10m?

AIMHO as usual...

Meanwhile, read what respected China/Copper expert Simon Hunt said a week ago, in a letter to the FT...

"Sir, Lex, in “Copper: red faced” (December 1), puts forward a consensus view based on tepid global economic growth and thus only a modest 1 per cent increase in world refined copper consumption. This is to miss what is really happening. E7 and G7 monetary data are pointing towards a decent global recovery in 2017 and these indicators are supported by the OECD’s gross domestic product doubling in the third quarter of this year to 0.6 per cent quarter on quarter.

Global copper consumption is recovering as well, led by China. China’s refined copper consumption will probably rise by around 7 per cent this year led by strong demand for power cable, high performance sheet and strip for the auto and computer appliance sectors, by a recovery in magnet wire demand, and general demand as the economy recovers. China’s infrastructure spending is and will continue to be a multiple of whatever the US’s will be under its new president. For instance, in the first 10 months of this year, China’s spending on infrastructure alone was $1.4tn and it will probably spend as much if not more in the next 10 years as in the last since government plans to migrate another 200m from the rural areas to the urban world, making a migration of some 400m over 20 years!

Market turning points are often met with cynicism if not disbelief, whether from a bear to a bull market and vice versa. This one is no exception. Global policy has shifted from focusing on austerity to one of inflating the global system. What is missing from most equations is that when this shift starts, inventory moves out of the raw material chain into refilling the massive global manufacturing chain from the final product, such as a transformer or an aircon, all the way through the individual sectors to the semi-fabricator, which of course has been emptied in recent years.

It is this dynamic that causes the peaks and troughs of metal prices. In fact, based on our analysis world refined consumption will probably rise by 4.5 per cent both this year and next and by at least 2.7 per cent in 2018. These numbers give us large supply and demand deficits resulting in very much higher copper prices than is the consensus view."

Enjoy

[shortarm] 14/12/2016 10:00

Mr 5k goes 2p under the bid....

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 13/12/2016 21:16

We've been over 110p on 3 previous occasions this year in Jan/March/June..., when Copper was around 2.00$/lb, we are significantly undervalued here at 130p IMO, and doesn't compute with Copper at $2.60/lb, 70c/lb EBITDA and selling c10,000 Tonnes in Q4...

10,000 Tonnes is 22M/lbs, that's c$15M EBITDA, if Copper holds up, we should be well over 200p...!

GS now bullish on Copper for 2017, they only ever talk their own book and have clearly gone long at last..

[rich1e] 13/12/2016 19:09

Yeah, that’s my thinking Iankn. Equities have had a good run and bull markets don’t last forever that’s the fact. Also I read somewhere that markets have a habit of falling in a post US election year. Maybe a good Santa rally to mark the top.

If any one cares to type ‘investment clock’ into Google you’ll encounter a multitude of pages, from various investment houses, with pretty clock diagrams, different angles on a common theme, the best performing assets over the economic cycle. Depending where you start, Cash, Bonds, Equities, and …… Commodities, in that order.

[iankn73] 13/12/2016 18:05

Agreed Rich1e. Equities are way over bought and investors will be looking for value elsewhere namely commodities like copper, gold, silver and platinum etc...

Looking forward to 2017 and beyond.

[rich1e] 13/12/2016 17:15

I think Iankn called it right yesterday, fed rate hike looking likely and spooking metals and miners. Not that it should, there’ll be some talk of a strong dollar, but the alternative is to say that were not raising rates because the global economy's in the sh!t.

It’ll be forgotten before long, the performance of mining stocks, since the rise last year, is testament to that. Global improvement, including, strengthening China, hard assets to hedge inflation, infrastructure spending, what’s not to like. I think it will be a very good year for commodities next year, not so good for equities.

[rougepierre] 13/12/2016 16:55

GS seem to be the kiss of death for copper right now...it does the opposite...

[reba] 13/12/2016 15:47

All abandon ship

[shortarm] 13/12/2016 15:17

What just happened to Copper?

[wanderer1210_0] 13/12/2016 13:23

OTFoolsGold you have mail

[rougepierre] 13/12/2016 11:05

Hi Husbod

Yes I saw your moniker on the SLP BB and that was the final convincer...

GS/JPM...far too much influence...

Also I forgot to mention the Silver Market Manipulation case which is now going ahead...thanks to Deutsche's 75000 documents, UBS, Nova Scotia and HSBC are now implicated and no doubt when that case gets underway, other skeletons will come out of the closet for Gold...



The previous investigation that found no evidence was headed by ex-Goldmanite Gary Gentler....hmmm....

[selber82] 13/12/2016 10:57

Dofmeister,
Excellent links!The long standing legal concept that,if you have reduced your agreement to writing then the words must be assumed to mean what they say,still stands.Without revisiting the actual wording of the agreement I think I agree that Astor will lose,If that is the case then we can expect an attempt to appeal and if granted another six to twelve months of legal entanglement.Cant see an out of court resolution at any stage after this amount of time.

[rougepierre] 13/12/2016 10:23

ps I think it is very positive that ATYM is consolidating between 130/145...there is strong historical resistance between 135 and 150...when it's ready the price will break up through this and the potential ceiling around 160...then we're into new ground, to consolidate above that...

the triggers could be Q4 production; grant received; indication of profit; Astor case sorted; Q1 production report; and then on to maiden FY profits for 2016 announced...

200p here we come...

AIMHO as usual...

[nedludd] 13/12/2016 10:15

I think the terms are clear and Waterloo is correct, in my opinion, that it is a question of timing rather than whether the debt is owed. What I find un-clear is should we not use "Senior Debt" ever, does that man we would NEVER pay them back?

The debt is a fact, as would be shown by the existence of the documents produced at the time,so I can not see how ATYM could not legally ( and morally) be required to honour that somehow. How that is settled the court case will tell us in due course I presume.

[mip55] 12/12/2016 21:02

We will perhaps get a clearer indication when China releases its data dump on retail and industrial output tomorrow morning at 0200 GMT

[mip55] 12/12/2016 20:39

Husbod......one possible explanation for today's blip:From Nasdaq...Copper prices fell on Monday amid jitters over China, the biggest consumer of the industrial metal.China consumes around 45% of global copper supplies and, as such, news from the country tends to have an outsize effect on prices for the base metal.Copper prices are up around 20% this year, driven by expectations of higher demand from China and the U.S.Some investors, however, are concerned that Chinese demand for copper and other raw materials may wane next year, as the effects of the government's economic stimulus peter out."As the stimulus driven resurgence ... fades, so will commodity demand," Deltec International Group said in a note to clients. "Beyond this, the strategic outlook is weak, as the last commodities boom is over, and the next is a generation away."Copper for delivery in three months was recently down 1% at $5,760 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange.Read more:

[dofmeister] 12/12/2016 20:29

I would say they (ATYM) have a reasonable case........but then I'm not a supreme court judge....

[iankn73] 12/12/2016 20:12

It looks like copper is under some pressure in the lead up to the US interest rate decision due on Wednesday.

We are due more economic data from China in the early hours. Retail sales, Industrial production etc...

Will we see a recovery afterwards as the markets are expecting the feds to hike the interest rate.