Asos Share Discussion Threads

[hosede] 21/4/2016 16:40

Extraordinary Pavlov's dog reaction to the interims.
From 2013 - 2016 T/O has gone 769m, 975, 1,150, 1,395(est) while EPs have remained static between 44 and 50p. Worrying (IMO) - And still no dividend Why?
Good Company of course, but an elephant now not a minnow so too big to gallop.
Fair price say 20 x EPS 900-1000p

[liquidkid] 20/4/2016 08:26

Compare the JD Williams, Simply Be Operator, Brown (N.) Group's headline financial reporting to ASOS's.

- Underlying profit before tax is defined as excluding exceptionals, unrealised FX movement and the impact of the IAS39 restatement (debtor impairment)

- Adjusted eps is defined as excluding exceptionals and unrealised FX movement

= Statutory profit before tax

ASOS is just 'profit before tax' They buried the exceptional FX derivative loss and the 'price investment' pretty deep down in the accounts.

What would have happened if ASOS had reported the same format as BWNG?

[telbap] 19/4/2016 14:08

Yep, I reckon they just gave up some of their profit from the initial drop. Harva, always good to see shorts closing, gives us a short Squeeze up on sp, and some stronger confidence for medium term trend.

[liquidkid] 19/4/2016 09:57

In a month Steadfast Capital Management have had to halve their short.
1% of the shares are 800,000 which is similar to the 1 month daily average volume of 770,000

Steadfast Capital Management LP 3.06% 2016-03-08
Steadfast Capital Management LP 1.75% 2016-04-14

[liquidkid] 18/4/2016 09:24

This gets better its beyond british
'Asos delivers double-digit sales and profit growth' Flatulancial Times
'Asos profits climb despite failure in China' Toffegraph
'ASOS develops swagger after great results' insolentidioticinvestor

And from the horses mouth, the CFO-:
"On the currency, on the hedging, we start to see the benefit come through into the second half of FY '17"

[But Why are you only maintaining circa 20% growth target for the full year?]

"recognize an upward pressure (in sales) it feels too early to be able to say what that would look like."

So they think that the binary FX CFD or whatever it is will become fashionable end of NEXT YEAR, but can't forecast sales a few months ahead.

[harebridge] 18/4/2016 08:17

Today analysts at RBC Capital Markets retained ASOS Plc's (LON:ASC) shares as 'Outperform' in a report released to investors.£45 target

[telbap] 15/4/2016 17:00

Liquid......all assuming your opinion is right and this is a toxic derivative trade of some sort. Might be a bad hedge or lack or hedge?

[liquidkid] 15/4/2016 09:32

Looks like every broker worth their sea salt has now put out a note on ASOS.
Does any of the research mention the massive £40m FX derivative hedging losses?
3rd eye would you care to corroborate? TIA

[harebridge] 15/4/2016 07:08

A summary of the state of the retail sector by Peel Hunt, from Paul ScottI read a fascinating research note from Peel Hunt yesterday, on retailing. Their analysis on that sector in particular is utterly brilliant. Their argument is that there is no such thing as a retailing sector. There are actually diverse businesses at different stages of life. The established businesses are telling us that consumer confidence is weak, demand is low, etc. Yet the economic data says the opposite - consumers are enjoying good increases in disposable income in fact.So why the disconnect? It's all down to competition - relatively new entrants are eating the lunch of the established players, if they don't keep up with a strong online offering, and constant innovation with products & services.So you hardly ever see any retailer comment that their products weren't good enough, and that the competition are doing a better job than themselves! Instead they moan about demand being weak, Brexit causing uncertainty (please! How ridiculous), and of course that good old catch all - the weather hasn't been right.- See more at:

[stumbleupon] 14/4/2016 13:34

Good to see this going up ...

[telbap] 14/4/2016 07:27

This needs to punch through 45 with good vols and momentum to have any hope of pushing back up to its previous 60/70£ highs. I see the facts have changed a little, a slightly more stable ship, however, caution should still be our watch word, the bottom line profit is still v low, they must start generating some real cash. I am in the optimist camp, looking at a half full glass, however, I am also a realist, there has to be money being made....

[donaferentes] 13/4/2016 16:24

Nice double bottom - oo err, as Benny might say.

Should be heading to 4200 - interim peak of 3400 + difference between average troughs of 2600 and interim leak of 3400 - in old money.

Very nice, in spite of hedging losses. Hope they did not sell forward euros into pounds - ouch!

[3rd eye] 12/4/2016 15:11

take over potential??????

[malcontent] 12/4/2016 14:58

what a performance today
testing £40 again soon before a breather and who knows with this stock?

[3rd eye] 12/4/2016 14:49

Ohh found one from a second liner broker HL.

HL COMMENT (12 APRIL 2016)

Underlying sales, before currency effects, rose 25% during the first half, with growth of over 30% in the US and EU. Despite the cost of Asos's well-flagged investments into their zonal pricing strategy and additional delivery options, net and gross margins both improved during the period. Profit before tax rose 18% to £21.2m (2015: £18.0m), adjusted earnings per share rose 15% to 20.3p and the group ended the period with a net cash balance of £135.9m (2015: £64.9m).

The shares jumped 5% in early trading.

Describing the first half as a good start to the year, CEO Nick Beighton highlighted the 17% growth in active customers over the prior year, now standing at 10.9m. This led to 21% growth in visits to the group's websites and increased basket sizes and order frequency.

Asos are confident of meeting market expectations for the year, aided by a £6-8m reduction in US import duties in the US, which will be reinvested into the customer proposition there. Asos are exiting their Chinese in-country operations and this will remove operating losses from future periods, after some one-off closure costs.

Branded sales rose from 52% of sales to 56% as the zonal pricing initiative improved competitiveness in international markets. Asos added 200 new brands to the roster, whilst shedding 150 to keep the overall collection fresh. Asos are now obtaining exclusivity on some branded products, differentiating their offer versus rivals.

Delivery and service options are being extended, with a free returns service, across the EU by the end of April 2016. In the UK, click and collect options are being extended to more and more locations, whilst in Europe and the US, the proportion of orders fulfilled from local facilities is growing.

Cash flow was positive, largely due to a change in supplier payment terms last year, which led to working capital delivering a £14m inflow, compared to a £12m outflow the previous year. Despite the growth in the business, inventories of stock only rose by £4m. The group's focus on "first price, right price" underpinned the margins earned.

Our View

Asos is performing strongly, almost everywhere but China, it seems. Having got to grips with local pricing, Asos are now competitive on branded products pretty much all the time in their three main territories (UK, EU & US). The results are pretty clear, sales are racing ahead and branded products are forming a bigger part of the sales mix.

The group are executing well; new warehousing and returns facilities are springing up at home and abroad, with no impact on service levels, quite the opposite in fact. Next Directory have previously said that the online fashion sector was becoming more competitive, as rivals caught up on service levels. You can see the catching-up going on in real time at Asos, with their delivery and returns service improving month by month.

Crucially, Asos are now managing this without any further impact on their operating margins, which now look to be steadying after a period of decline.

No-one could call the stock lowly rated, on circa 65x prospective earnings, but it has been even more highly rated in the past. Asos offers a very attractive pace of top line growth, and has maintained double digit rates of expansion for many years. Ultimately, the success of Asos will depend on how long it can maintain this sort of pace, and how far it can tickle margins higher as scale builds across the business. Sales this year are set to be around £1.4bn and analysts expect them to break through £2bn in FY18.

With the business addressing the UK, the EU, the USA and beyond, £2bn still represents a very small market share. So if it can keep its competitiveness sharp, there seems little reason to think that Asos is going to be constrained in its growth, by anything other than its own ability to manage the pace of expansion, for some time to come.

All yield figures are variable and not guaranteed.

[3rd eye] 12/4/2016 14:44

Pity they havent got one for ASC yet. Still waiting.

They have one for Ted Baker if thats any good.

[3rd eye] 12/4/2016 14:38

LK Ill get a brokers note.

[3rd eye] 12/4/2016 14:38

Report him to the police harebridge how dare LK question you and ASC!!!!!!!

[harebridge] 12/4/2016 09:24

Forget dissecting the news, the market is reasonably impressed.

[liquidkid] 12/4/2016 08:12

Ouch what are these Derivative financial (liabilities)/assets?
gone from 6.1 million to (36.9) million.
Quite significant as it lead to the Fair value loss on derivative financial liabilities of 43.2 million.
and a Total comprehensive loss of 20.2 million.
Who is doing the Hedging for them? Obviously not very good at it.

[kooba] 12/4/2016 07:55

Being called up 2-3%

[johnyee 7] 12/4/2016 07:49

on bbc breakfast now

[harebridge] 12/4/2016 07:46

Daily mail today"Established in 2000 for fashion-conscious twentysomethings, ASOS was an early ecommerce success story, but is seeing growing competition from the likes of Germany's Zalando and British rival Boohoo, as well as from traditional store-based chains improving their online offerings."