Asos Share Discussion Threads

[admin900] 29/4/2015 17:06

It can't get rougher than this.

[moorsie2] 29/4/2015 14:00

primed for shorters now. Hold on as it could get rough..

[donaferentes] 27/4/2015 11:57

up trend is still holding in customary fashion - but watching for a break downwards to signal its (temporary?) end

[telbap] 27/4/2015 08:17

Very short term veiw

[goldilocks1] 26/4/2015 15:45

ST "Inside the City" joins the league of those who rate ASC as a SELL

just a tiny snippet from the article .....
".... having to invest heavily in warehouses and deep discounts to establish beachheads in new markets. Growth is getting harder and more expensive ..... Asos just doesn't catch the eye like it used to. SELL"

[darias] 15/4/2015 09:48

Good post rndm

I cannot see a reason to buy at these prices.

[rndm355] 14/4/2015 17:11

The share price reached £70 in early 2014 when pre-tax profits to be announced for the year ending August 2014 were £47m. Profit consensus forecast for 2015 is only about the same, while the number for 2013 was £55m. I don't see how you can argue that profits and prospects are higher now than they were in 2013/2014, now that profits have stopped growing?

It is true that revenues have increased but margins are lower now ("price investment") and capex requirements have turned out to be surprisingly expensive. The competitive environment has also turned out to be tricky, the old retailers are able to deliver online too and you also have plenty of upstarts like Missguided and Simply Be which want to be the next big thing.

Ultimately if you are a long-term investor and you think ASOS is going to eventually conquer a host of different economic regions and produce really substantial profits then you might be right and I wish you the best. But the market cap is more than 3x sales for a low-margin business with a thinnish moat and so I think this is a great shorting opportunity which I expect will pay for a fair few personal expenses. But if you hold the stock then you might still win out in the long-term (5 years +) if it fulfills its promise.

[greek islander] 09/4/2015 15:50

The thing about ASC is that even with all this discounting, the profit margins are huge by most standards. The PE might seem massive but this stock has fantastic potential as a market leader well entrenched and still fast growing in UK, to start motoring sales-wise in all the other countries where they are currently establishing their sites.
The public in UK are VERY loyal to this company and I know from personal experience how many of the young twenties to thirties who work with me are really into it in a big way and would not look elsewhere.
This is currently and has always been a momentum stock and as such had reached almost £70 when the profits and prospects were lower. They have turned around from those profit warnings of last year and are proceeding apace. I seriously think that with a continued and most likely steady rise in revenue they will take advantage of improving consumer confidence and cement themselves for decades to come and that could mean a doubling yet of the PE back to the old levels and a share price of in excess of £100. Of course one has to be a bit cautious - negative things can happen, especially in foreign markets but the ASOS model is spread among a lot of countries which ameliorates the risk.
I sold out most of my stock as the share price dropped and took my profits and got back in some time later mainly at £20-28 and shall now look to increase my holding.

[telbap] 09/4/2015 15:44

Wtfdik, had this pulling back at 41.50. Go with the.flow!!

[chester] 09/4/2015 15:42

1 bagged this today..
You can't fight the trend.

[moopdoom] 09/4/2015 11:55

So just don't buy it. Being short tells me that you haven't considered that the market doesn't care about the NTM valuation. And, personally, I think that's naive; it might indeed be expensive, but remember you're betting on what the market will pay for it, NOT necessarily what it's worth on NTM forecast earnings.Best of luck though

[rndm355] 09/4/2015 11:28

I shorted this at 39 and it has almost immediately jumped to 41.

I was previously short from 68 but closed that position without making the most of the profit opportunity.

Can't believe that there are so many people willing to suspend disbelief and buy on potential.

I can see that the ASOS brand has value but not in the league of luxury brands and even some normal high street brands. ASOS is primarily in the business of distributing other brands and while it is certainly good at doing that, distribution is a low-margin and intensely price-competitive activity. ASOS has achieved wonderful growth but at this share price I have to bet that further growth will be more difficult than the market has priced.

Normal fashion retailers are trading at high valuations too but nothing like ASOS, even though they in many cases have stronger brands and they too can distribute online in a price-competitive way. Seems like there are some decent pairs trade opportunities out there.

Would consider covering around 20.

[telbap] 09/4/2015 08:46

Appears to be running in form. Might have legs to push through 41 tomorrow....

[telbap] 08/4/2015 08:42

Heading for the 40 zone. I expect a pull back after 40.50/41... Maybe to 37/37.50 area, then a push to new highs of 43/44. All depends on continued positive news flow, or rather, no negative news flow.

[telbap] 07/4/2015 08:26

Nice 100 point blue open. Quite insane how the share price on this Co yoyo's with such volatility, still I guess it adds to the fun!

[moopdoom] 07/4/2015 08:20

And the shorts go quiet. Ha

[telbap] 02/4/2015 08:28

@goldilocks.....good luck, but I see us pushing recent highs before the next dip, that means 40+ before a dip back to 37, current support. Hope I am right,but.been wring plenty times before. I am not day trading this, bought a lump into my sipp in very early 20's, so I am comfortable at the moment. Good luck to all.

[jimrclark] 01/4/2015 12:43

Potential!!! 9m active users and growing!!! My daughters love it and so do all their friends (mid-20's) - it's the first place they look and they usually find something to buy.

IF THEY CAN STAY INDEPENDENT, sales and profits in a few years will rocket.

However, I suspect that an Amazon or some other big retailer will snap it up for a very healthy premium.

AIMHO!

[greek islander] 01/4/2015 09:12

Can someone please repeat the RNS on this BB. Thank you.

[clocktower] 01/4/2015 08:51

The point is that the full year is still expected to be in line with expectations. Hence the rise I assume.

[goldilocks1] 01/4/2015 08:45

my short is still in profit, but confess i'm amazed at the positive reception of the latest figures

[telbap] 01/4/2015 08:33

Goldilocks, looks like your porridge is cold my dear! Lol, I know this share price has a massive range, we hit 45 just a few days back on an intraday high, I can see us back there again. Step back, don't.look at the here and now, look at 10 years down the road when asos is a coca cola type company and making real profits. I can see the share price wellbover the £100, insane, yep I totally agree, but sometimes you have to go with the flow.