Asiamet upping their tweeting game (lol at least it's something) with a due diligence team from proposed lead bank checking out the port facilities.Only a matter of time IMHO, this year Rodders. |
I don't think Asiamet will use a long term copper price of 4.13. I think minelife of Barrick is ~40 years so arguably more uncertainty and therefore more caution. I'd think somewhat higher - maybe 4.3 - 4.45. That's not unreasonable |
ARS used $3.98 for the last study. Back in September PXC used $4.45 l/b for a project that only produces cica 40,000 tones for the entire LOM... LOL...I would speculate ARS will use around the same as Barrick circa $4.13 l/b ....remember every 15 cents is shed loads of dosh ROFLMFAO |
They have to be Conservative innit, the banks will stress test it back to 3 bucks something but let's be honest we ain't seeing 3 bucks copper in 2027 ROFLMFAO |
What did ARS use? It seems a conservative price forecast |
Major Barrick are using a long term average copper price consensus of $4.13 l/b for their Lumwana super pit expansion feasibility study. |
Copper price going bananas so far in 2025! |
From 23rd December RNS: An updated feasibility study report with be finalised and published in early 2025.One wonders what early 2025 is in Asiamet speak, I'll probably read the report whilst tanning on the beach ROFLMFAO! |
Yeah fair doos m8 I think getting the capex to npv better is the key focus as Tony mentioned it straight off the bat...probably the first thing the credit committee look at ROFLMFAO all imho! |
>Fair doos m8 with calls like that you're well on the way to >legendary status!It's also worth bearing in mind that with the much more detailed estimates and subsequent firming up of any offtake agreements there may be justification for reducing the discount factor (say from 8% to 7%). Depending on what happens with opex this could mean nudging under 1 for the capex to NPV ratio. If senior debt is just under $100m then looks a much more compelling investment. Obviously can't know copper prices beyond 2027 but even at an (arguably) conservative 4.3-4.4 looks a good 'un |
Fair doos m8 with calls like that you're well on the way to legendary status! |
I think we both agree then - the first 2 studies didn’t get financed because they weren’t compelling enough. It was me, not you, that expressed significant doubts that the 2nd study would get financed.
So whilst it’s not a great outcome, at least I take solace that I called it right. |
The 2019 study was NPV of 133.5 million and Capex circa 223 million, that's why it flopped IMHO.....but the ratio is getting better every time not worse you melt ROFLMFAO |
I'm not sure what worse means in your uneducated little world kiddo, but the IRR was 2% higher. |
My confidence is ok at the moment following the decision to take some of their remuneration in shares. This time next year... |
Tony said it himself in his September interviews with Charles Archer, the banks told them they have to improve the Capex to NPV ratio! |
There is an ancient belief that the third time something is attempted it is more likely to succeed than the previous two attempts. |
Not only is this now option 3, having been unable to fund the first 2 studies, but the 2022/3 was delayed several times specifically to include the feedback from the ITE to ensure it met their requirements. Or certainly that was what we were told - obviously the reality was not even getting past initial credit committee approval.
Thanks, Darryn. |
The copper price has risen nicely recently... |
 Interesting post from Ian Reynolds on LinkedIn which our CEO liked. He follows mining guys who actually know what they're on about not chatroom legends ROFLMFAO. I'm paraphrasing here so all imho but it was regarding project failure, which when examined often is found in the studies phase.He argues there are two distinct phases in a project, the definition ( studies) phase and the delivery (design/construction)The crux is how the final option was identified: Theoretically there are a thousand different combinations of mine, waste, processing, throughput, product...so he puts forward how did the definition team move from a thousand options to say 12 options to choosing just one?How was the preferred option selected? There is your smoking gun he says.So Mclelland has come in to Asiamet with a thousand ways to take this mine forward and he has to select one way, which has to work! This is why he is paid a nice wage IMHO! You try it ROFLMFAO!!Personally given his experience i think he can do it!All imho dyor!!!! |
Well that was a Bobby Dazzler of a year... let's hope 2025 brings us better news. Happy New Year! |
Forget all the squabbling boys, it's Xmas, so happy NY to one & all and let's just hope Asiamet completes the financing by mid year and we either continue to build the first mine or get bought out at a much higher price than we find ourselves today.
Happy Xmas to all. |
@bukowski
Are you a shareholder here? Because it’s weird behaviour to be such a TM fan given you’re certainly down if you do hold. Apply some critical thinking.
“what would you do if you were DOID, Einstein?”
I don’t claim to be Einstein but I think running a share price down over a few years whilst someone else funds all the pre work before you sweep in with a takeover offer is a smart move. And that’s exactly what I see happening. |
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