Asiamet Resources Share Discussion Threads

[pyglet] 24/8/2018 11:44

I expect they want to release the BFS with financing hence the slight delay.

[highly geared] 24/8/2018 10:43

Once the BKM BFS is published and , more importantly, financed (albeit with project level dilution), we should be able to sit tight on the shares for years to come knowing that further development of KSK and Beutong will be share price accretive.

Fair value market caps for 25ktpa copper producers are well north of the current share price , even with project level dilution.

My nervousness has been around the effective 6 month delay to the BFS and therefore financing and what this might mean in the context of deteriorating macro markets. Get the financing done please, on reasonable terms, and we can all relax (relatively speaking).

[mrpiggy] 24/8/2018 10:41

Sounds great yorkie, I'll put that on my trough (bucket) list.

[yorkie14] 24/8/2018 10:37

Mr P,

maybe it's time to take some time away from the market and take a holiday...
Can I suggest Paris and the Pigalle!

GL LTH

[mrpiggy] 24/8/2018 10:25

Trump starting of the trade talks with the usual bad cop, good cop routine.
He has in effect slagged off the Chinese with his bad cop routine giving little hope of a deal, then we will see the good cop routine where the Chinese will be shown as best thing since sliced bread, they will kiss and cuddle and make up and a deal will be struck..... Trump will be seen as the saviour of the worlds economy.
Meanwhile we see this seemingly endless selling of what is in all probability one of the most promising stocks in the FTSE.
As much as I may grumble it is blatantly obvious that this is only a temporary situation and eventually ARS will show true value, that’s why we invested in the first place.
Since then we have a much stronger case..... it’s the sheer tedium I struggle with. :@

[mr roper] 24/8/2018 09:48

S&p average stock holding time is now 20 seconds. That is not a typo

[mount teide] 23/8/2018 22:39

Mrp - thats because the overwhelming majority of the market now hold positions for a much shorter duration than they did 10 or even 5 years ago - the churn rate of most managed funds is multiples of what it was ten years ago - is the performance any better? No - 95% of them fail to beat the index they are largely mirroring.

Terry "Buy and Hold" Smith of Fundsmith fame is wiping the floor with more than 99% of them.

ARS and CAML have had many 25%+ drops over the last 5 years - its goes with the territory. There are probably not too many professional investors that would describe ARS's greater than 900% return in 2.5 years, with probably plenty more to come as "boring to the nth degree!" Each to their own!

The average performance of hedge funds too in recent years has been very similar or worse than the standard managed funds. Why? An industry insider said many of these hedge funds have become so large in terms of the cash they manage, the management can live extremely well indeed off their 2% management fee by providing a modest return for their clients rather than put all that at risk by taking the much higher investment risk required to achieve significantly more.

I'm simply stating my view as a long term investor in the copper sector - where i continue to strongly believe over a 5 year outlook any valuation weakness should be considered as an opportunity to average up. It served me very well during the last shipping/commodity cycle in 2000-2008 and, the current market fundamentals suggests to me it is likely to do likewise during this latest copper market recovery stage.

[mount teide] 23/8/2018 18:35

The fact that ARS missed the anticipated Q1/2018 BFS deadline for BKM due to developments that are likely to be highly positive to the valuation/quality of the proposed mine's business case, has been a little unfortunate timing wise, since it's co-incided with the first correction of the copper price in the two and half years since the recession bottom of the previous cycle.

Those approached to provide equity and banking finance will undoubtedly try to use the current price of copper to secure a better deal. However, i would expect long in the tooth Tony Manini to major on the likely very low operating cost of the project and the forecast copper market deficits as far as the eye can see during the next decade to minimise any significant financial impact.

Its proposed mines for development with much higher forecast operating costs that could find raising finance much more problematic and potentially expensive in the present copper price environment - in their shoes waiting 6 - 12 months could prove very beneficial viewed over the potential life of the mine.

[cyberbub] 23/8/2018 17:57

Surely the BFS will include scenarios for 2 or 3 copper price levels, as with the PEA? Then it's up to any funder/buyer(s) to decide which price level they choose for their participation?

[adorling] 23/8/2018 17:46

More buys than sells today so usual games with MM unless a very large sell trade is reported later although it is now 17:45 and nothing showing!

[charles clore] 23/8/2018 15:51

Well... it looks as if we have a determined seller today. Under 9p once more - I'll have to get the piggybank out again!

[horneblower] 23/8/2018 13:44

Battery cars are here already and very zippy they are too. I test drove the BMW i3 a year ago and was highly impressed especially with it's acceleration and quietness (apart from at speed when it's just as noisy as it's petrol equivalent).
Would have bought one except for the price (from £33,500).

The $3.25 copper price used in the PEA may have been acceptable as it was at least two years away from manufacture. To use it for the BFS when we are possibly only a year from manufacture is less acceptable, partly because we are talking about 'bankable' as opposed to 'preliminary'. I accept that the copper price in 12 months time is almost certainly going to be above $3...but 'almost certainly' is not really good enough for 'bankable'.

[charles clore] 23/8/2018 12:41

MT - I congratulate you on your choice of mobile service provider but can't say the same for the phone as I prefer the Android system.

We are globally attached to the mindset of car ownership. This will change rapidly very quickly imho and it makes sense. There are already too many cars that can't find parking in the streets and car parks are full of unused vehicles. This space is needed for living accommodation and for many the cost of parking every day is already more expensive than the cost of a car. Fortunately for us the EV technology will need loads of copper!

[mount teide] 23/8/2018 12:29

cc - most people, particularly the younger generation always want the latest technology and are prepared to pay for it - its a fashion/status symbol thing in many respects because its difficult to justify what they are getting is remotely good value.

I am happy there are so many people of this mindset because for decades it has enabled me to buy last years technology at a fraction of the price.

It an approach that has served me well considering most owners only use/need a small fraction of the performance capability of last years technology never mind this years specification laptops/tablets/mobile phones/Ultra HD TV's models etc

Currently have a 'new' iPhone 5SE( a museum piece according to my sons!) with 2GB data, unlimited minutes and text for £12 a month after selling back the data which i don't use. It does exactly what i want - enable me to make unlimited phone calls anywhere in the UK including from 30 miles out in the North Sea when the fishing is a little quiet!

When the SE first launched in late 2016 the price was £30 a month for 1GB of data and 500 minutes airtime. Apple still want £349 just for the phone.

[charles clore] 23/8/2018 12:03

pyglet - EV adoption will happen much faster than expected imho

[shareideas1] 23/8/2018 12:03

2025 maybe and even then likely only in highly populated urban areas

[pyglet] 23/8/2018 11:54

3years you are dreaming.

[charles clore] 23/8/2018 11:29

MT - so the message seems to be - don't buy a new EV, make do with the old one and wait until the AEVs are available to hire. In 3 years time they will be available to drive themselves to your house and take you wherever you want to go at a fraction of today's cost of buying, insuring and taxing a private car.

[buildit1] 23/8/2018 11:23

PEA was published when copper was at 2!! So using 3.25 then was a much bigger issue. Recently we have seen many long term forecasts raised. 3.25 is rock solid as average next 10 years in my view. They have always said will use Wood Mac number which I think is still $3.25?

[mount teide] 23/8/2018 11:17

Industrial metals - some interesting anecdotal experience from poster Mattjos on the JTC thread.

'Batteries now on longest lead time I've ever experienced in 19 years. VRLA, gel, industrial batteries now 18-week lead time ex-Germany OEM. Despite extra shifts at factory, completely unable to keep up with demand. Usual lead time is 2-3 weeks. Prices also near record highs.

DC motor/gearbox units .. Italian & Slovenian OEM's quoting 9-12 month lead times!!! usually 2 months. The large auto OEM's have hoovered all available supplies of specialist gearbox shafts and bearings for years ahead as the likes of BMW, Mercedes etc all push hard to bring new EV's to market asap. Prices all increasing.

On just these two items, have recently had to give 12-18 month forward blanket orders to try and ensure availability ... since start this year, these two component supply chains have got stretched and stretched and stretched. The drive to vehicle electrification is affecting everything even remotely connected & is much greater than most appreciate. All that said, I am reliably informed by Director of one of worlds largest Auto OEM's, if 'proper' accounting is used to measure EVs .. every single manufacturer (Tesla included) is losing money on every pure BEV out the door.

Barriers to entry for BEV are much, much lower than I/C engine autos .. the coming few years will see a huge shakeout amongst the OEM's. This shift in technology is re-setting the starting tape amongst participants & the route to profitable production is still unclear but, VW/Porsche have forever changed the landscape with diesel cheat software & Tesla also a big disruptor.

Fascinating space to keep watch as the large OEM's would actually rather not have you buy a car in the future .. they prefer that you rent/use on a SAAS model basis. What future for independent car dealerships?'

[mount teide] 23/8/2018 10:55

As with HZM the market is waiting for the BFS.

As a result of delays beyond Q1/2018, shareholder impatience exacerbated by the first copper market price correction since H1/2016 in this new commodity cycle following Trump's trade war rhetoric, has seen many of their shareholders played like finely tuned grand piano's by the market.


All the time copper price is some $0.50-$0.75 below that needed to trigger meaningful capex expenditure on developing new production, the coming copper market deficit story of the next decade will increase in size and duration with every day that passes.

China the world's largest consumer of copper is currently importing refined copper, copper ore and concentrate at a rate not seen since the super commodity boom years of nearly two decades ago. Why? To take advantage of the fallback in pricing to massively build up their inventory as a hedge against future pricing. They did the same with oil during last year and early in 2018 to help manage the multi decades long 5%+ annual growth in demand.

The Chinese strategy won't stop them having to pay higher prices, probably much higher prices in future but, is crafted to help mitigate some of the impact over the shorter/medium term.

[mr roper] 23/8/2018 10:31

All it takes is an agreement with the us and China on tariffs and the cu price will be back to 3.30 in the blink of an eye. Global economy still growing and that deficit getting closer

[2lb] 23/8/2018 10:30

PEA used 3.25I think that's still valid given production will be 2020.Also the BFS will have a range to reflect the change in outputs that a copper price will drive , likely running from 2.5 to 4.0

[horneblower] 23/8/2018 10:15

I'm sure the board are fully aware.
The problem might be that they will have to choose a sensible forward copper price for the irr calculations in the bfs. I seem to remember the PEA used 3.5 and with the current price around 2.5 it will be hard to think up a number that won't be queried. Also, a financing deal at the current copper price will cost more than if it were higher.
I do not blame them for prevaricating.