Ashtead Technology Share Discussion Threads

[sogoesit] 04/3/2024 09:39

I think Subsea Electrical Cable laying is a different expertise, and contractor, to Subsea O&G Pipe laying, and removal.
If so, a major project contractor would likely have its own specialised equipment.
The trenching may be the same but the burying and reel laying likely different. Station-keeping and holding (therefore winching) could be applicable.
I do not know but am working from knowledge of the O&G side only (altho I once worked on a project to take DC electricity from an offshore platform gas-to-power plant to Holland once upon a time).

[dicktrade] 02/3/2024 13:44

I will look myself on Monday but does anyone know if this is any work for AT. ??
TIA

[zho] 29/2/2024 17:30

2.08 million UT and a late trade for another 0.9 million

[bigbigdave] 29/2/2024 16:31

Going back to the highs and probably beyond.
Might get a March update with the January one missing this year.

[sogoesit] 28/2/2024 09:44

Yes, that tallies with the site published forecasts:
2022/2023 = 29.7/16 = 85.63%
2023/2024 = 37.1/29.7 = 25%
2024/2025 = 42.6/37.1 = 14.82%

More detailed EPS breakdowns:
2022/2023 - High: 30.5 Low: 29.2
2023/2024 - High: 38.2 Low: 36.3

Broker 12 month share price Targets:
High - 750
Medium - 695
Low - 615

Taking the share price Forecasts against the, say, 2023/2024 37.1p EPS then the implied P/E Ratios are:
High - 20x
Medium - 18.75x
Low - 16.58x

For a company growing EPS at over 30% historic and revenue at over 45% historic the respective awarded EPS PEG Ratios are:
High - 0.67
Medium - 0.62
Low - 0.55

Conclusion: significantly forecast undervaluations and buyers have been slaves to the highest share price Target, giving PI's a lot of arbitrage here over the "professionals" imv.

[johnrxx99] 28/2/2024 05:37

Zho, just to add to your stats, Sharescope have consensus eps forecast growth over the next 3 years as 88.3%;25.1% and 15%. That's nearly a two bagger - I recon it will be more. DYOR

[solarno lopez] 27/2/2024 17:14

That will do nicely !

[sogoesit] 27/2/2024 17:04

Ok, thanks for that, zho. I will take a look at your link.
(Yes, I think my rough estimate was likely to be "conservative").

Ha, yes, that link is great. I didn't know these uk companies were "in tune" with this kind of estimating but assume they do it to be used for their RNS results guidance announcements.
If I award them a P/E of 25x (assuming a PEG of 1 for EPS growth of 37.1/29.7) I get a TP of 927 for FY2024 as "fair value"... yes siree!!!

Oh well, I suppose i should accumulate more below 700 then.

[zho] 27/2/2024 15:49

>>For just the combination of the businesses (Winch + AT. Base) I get 34.4 x 22 (P/E) = 756. No growth.>>

I would have thought that the eps figures at are likely to be more accurate than those on Market Screener. These are 29.7p for calendar 2023, 37.1p for the current year, and 42.6p for 2025 - decent growth.

And if you look at the corresponding figures for AT.'s PTP and then look at the PTP* for Rathmay Ltd (the parent company of ACE Winches) to 3/23 - as suggested by Tudes100, above - you can see why he thinks that the 2024 and 2025 figures for PTP on AT.'s web pages may be unduly cautious.

* Pretax profit of £12.2m, post tax profit of £10.3m

[sogoesit] 27/2/2024 15:34

Are the broker consensus targets you see High 750 / Low 615 / Average 679 (which I get from Marketscreener)?
Or something else?
For just the combination of the businesses (Winch + AT. Base) I get 34.4 x 22 (P/E) = 756. No growth.

Anyway, I just accumulated at 692.

GLA

[tudes100] 27/2/2024 04:56

This is still looking very cheap based on broker forecasts for FY24. Recent acquisition ACE Winches delivered PBT 12.2m in their last full FY detailed in Companies House accounts of their parent Co. If you apply a tax rate in line with AT's recent % and assume no growth in this side of the business FY24 broker consensus numbers still suggest the rest of the AT business will be going backwards at a double digit percentage (this also ignores the incremental rev's/profitability from Wesubsea & Hiretech). Given organic revenue growth at the HY was +40.5% this stretches the bounds of credibility imo. They did flag at the H1 results that comparables at the back end of the year would be tougher but I still think it's highly unlikely they will do less than 45p EPS next year.
It's also worth keeping an eye on the reporting of their key customers such as Technic FMC, Saipem, Subsea 7, etc. There is no indication that their markets are doing anything other than accelerating - "longer term visibility is also improving with clients securing capacity for projects that extend to 2030", "many tangible signs that support our view that this will be an extended market cycle", "tendering activity remains high with continued improvement in pricing", "best Q3 in Co's history", "record order intake and backlog", "we will remain fully booked for 4 years", "there are two trends in this market - a rise in rates & an increase in the length of contract".

[bigbigdave] 24/2/2024 13:30

Topped up here yesterday, no pullback greater than this in the last year.

[johnrxx99] 22/2/2024 06:35

Thanks BBD

[bigbigdave] 21/2/2024 11:52

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[sogoesit] 20/2/2024 11:18

Yes, indeed, Slogsweep... I do on occasion use log scales which "should" be the preferred scale of analysis.
However, the majority of people who trade, or invest, use linear, and daily, scales. So, in order to correlate Price Action patterns (TA) to trading signals I must "follow the herd".
However, I agree with you that most people just look at price, especially if they look at linear scales, and don't concern themselves with growth rates, mistakenly imv.
After all, stock picking is about beating "the market" and, if you don't know whether, or by how much, you are beating the market there is no compass for guiding you. Not so?
(I use Trendspider, and have to work out my own CAGRs; and thanks for the tip about Sharescope).

[slogsweep] 20/2/2024 08:14

Sogoesit do you plot using a log scale? If you do and fit a trend line the gradient is the growth rate. I use Sharescope and it calculates the growth rate and displays it on the graph for the selected time frame.

[sogoesit] 19/2/2024 19:24

Yes, Slogsweep, on a PEG basis AT is still much less than 1.00 (probably about 0.50 with historic EPS, and forward growth, about 45%) so good value imv.

(Off topic. On a forward EPS basis NVDA looks to me to be at about 35x currently with share price at 725. We will see on Wednesday what the market thinks.)

[dicktrade] 19/2/2024 14:00

hxxps://www.ashtead-technology.com/careers/vacancies/
Quite a number of new vacancies added here ;-))

[slogsweep] 19/2/2024 12:13

Nice to see someone else using that metric. I'm a bit more conservative and use trend line growth rather than point to point. On that basis AT. share price is growing at 156% pa. and NVDA 874% over same period. But what also interests me is that the prospective PE of AT. is only about 25 whereas for NVDA its 59. I'm happy to hold both along with few others with similar share price growth.

[sogoesit] 16/2/2024 13:58

The share price growth rate, from when it based on 28 November last 'til today is 800% pa. which, compared to my NVDA, at 580% pa over the same period is saying something!
Good luck to anyone selling out!

[dicktrade] 16/2/2024 13:42

A couple of £2million buys just printed :-0

[ichitrader] 16/2/2024 13:02

That wasn't a question - Advfn just added the question mark.

[ichitrader] 16/2/2024 13:01

They updated in Nov 23 - no further update due...

[rampmeister] 16/2/2024 11:52

Note we had a TU on Jan 16th last year. Does anyone know when we will be updated ahead of FY?

[zho] 16/2/2024 08:31

Indeed. I top-sliced a few this morning. Still holding 70% of my original stake.