Ashtead Technology Share Discussion Threads

[villarich] 18/4/2024 08:16

Hi Sogo, long time no speak. I hope you and yours are well. Once again I stumble across a share you're involved in. Must be a good sign...

[johnrxx99] 18/4/2024 07:30

My underlying purchase shortly after the bell, 50% holding increase, was nice. Long may the discussions continue. :-)

[bigbigdave] 18/4/2024 07:06

RBC RAISES ASHTEAD TECHNOLOGY PRICE TARGET TO 780 (695) PENCE - 'OUTPERFORM'

[eagle eye] 17/4/2024 20:06

Who was it selling at the opening bell yesterday at 600p?
Whoever it was must feel mugged two days on and I'm sorry for anyone who faces this predicament.
The stock market takes no hostages at times like these.

[chester9] 17/4/2024 16:46

Good to see Bill Shannon chairman bought 3015 shares yesterday. At 6.60 he liked the price that's positive.

[sogoesit] 17/4/2024 16:28

Thanks for detail, Chester9!
Look conservative to me. I guess there will be an update to the consensus on Ashtead's site sometime.

[bigbigdave] 17/4/2024 16:27

Market likes that!

[whittler100] 17/4/2024 16:19

Seems that the Ch of AT took yesterday's share price drop as an opportunity to fill this FYs ISA allowance

[chester9] 17/4/2024 12:43

Ashtead Technology Holdings Plc ATAS.L : Berenberg raises target price to 775pfrom 700pAshtead Technology Holdings Plc ATAS.L : Stifel raises target price to 770pfrom 750pThese are the two this am.

[jqb1] 17/4/2024 11:22

Just saw it pop up on sharepad this morning, will look later and find the details

[sogoesit] 17/4/2024 10:42

About "exceptionals", albeit taking carcosa's comments, AT is a (part) M&A company, having 17%+ growth from inorganic acquisitions (plus adherent restructuring costs) on a regular basis.
Like its bigger sibling AHT it seems to go with the rental business territory. To my mind, while its M&A strategy continues in this growth phase these costs/benefits, being regular, are not exceptional.
That said, when working my analysis for forward growth estimates in "growth stocks", I do separate the different business "activities" otherwise one can be deceived where growth originates and what the costs/benefits are. The "costs" don't just appear in the "adjusted" figures they also appear in the Balance Sheet as increased equity or, in this case, increased use of Debt, or vice versa less Debt with increased "profits". This impacts ROIC which, commendably, the management of this company uses as an appropriate measure of returns.

The CFO said:
"Our 51% revenue growth was derived from organic growth (35%), M&A (17%) (being the full year impact of the WeSubsea and Hiretech acquisitions completed in 2022 plus one-month trading from our most recent acquisition, ACE Winches), with a small decrease from FX rates (-1%)."
The issue is what will the proportion of growth due to M&A be in FY2024 and its impact on ROIC.
Anyone guess?

(PS. I am not a fan of modern accounting and its potential to be manipulated, if only in presentation, by managements potentially hiding the true nature of their businesses... whether "standard" or not. I don't think these are "standard" By the way.)

Reminder: if one investor accepts "standards", or doesn't, in measurement and buys/sells on those "standards", or others, they may do themselves an injustice compared to other investors' views on performance metrics. This creates arbitrage and risk; an example of which happened yesterday... and may persist!!

[sogoesit] 17/4/2024 10:08

Show me...
Talk, as usual, is cheap.

[jqb1] 17/4/2024 09:54

Upgrades already coming through

[carcosa] 17/4/2024 08:36

With reference to the above posts, herewith are the pre-results 7 analyst consensus figures, as of 15 February 2024, compared to the (results)

Revenue 107.2 (110.5)
Underlying EDITDA 47.2 (48.3)
Underlying Operating Profit 34.7 (34.8)
Underlying PBT 31.5 (33.0)
Underlying EPS 29.7 (33.4)
Net Debt 73.5 (61.7)

In all instances Ashtead beat forecasts.

The analyst figures are taken from Ashtead's website

As is typical, Analyst data is adjusted '...Underlying figures exclude exceptional costs, FX gain/loss and amortisation.' This is industry standard.

The argument over adjusted v statutory figures is a valid concern and investors have to make their own mind up as to the validity of the adjustments and, for me, whether or not a company is making large adjustments over many years. After all 'exceptional costs' should by their very nature be 'exceptional'.

In Ashtead's case those exceptionals relate to FX, acquisition Costs, Restructuring, Software and deferred finance costs. So in my book I'll say that's ok. Others may have differing opinions.

As for potential future revenue growth I'd agree with Whittler100's views. Additionally we may see further acquisition activity.

The Full Year Results Presentation can be downloaded from

[bigbigdave] 17/4/2024 06:56

BERENBERG RAISES ASHTEAD TECHNOLOGY PRICE TARGET TO 775 (700) PENCE - 'BUY'

[johnrxx99] 17/4/2024 04:06

I quoted Sharescope figures above, which are statutory. The Eps was down 8.5%, profit before tax was down 10% and the share price is down about 10%. All those are based on consensus. Adjusted gives a rosier picture but not actual. Having said that T/O was ahead by GDP3m.

So, for next year the actual forecasts are:-

PTP - 39.19
EPS - 36.99
TO - 161.6

Meanwhile I hope we get update forecasts.

[wilmdav] 16/4/2024 20:16

Sharepad, the online version of Sharescope, showed consensus forecasts for 2023 from seven analysts. These include revenue, EBIT, EBITDA, PTP, ATP, EPS. I believe these forecasts are presented on an adjusted basis where appropriate. Assuming this to be the case, all forecasts were exceeded by the announced results.

However the consensus target price from these same analysts was 679p, which is very close to where we are now.

In view of the speed at which the price was marked down at the open, I cannot escape the conclusion that something was going on prior to the open which persuaded market makers that the pre-results price had got well ahead of itself.

Like others above, I feel very comfortable about holding at this price.

[bigbigdave] 16/4/2024 17:03

The impatient selling to the patient today.

[sogoesit] 16/4/2024 11:30

On a Pro-Forma 12 month basis for ACE acquisition, assuming additional 11 months' Revenue from ACE (£3.55m x 11) for Total £149.516m, no increase in Finance Costs (£4m) and constant tax rate (21.5%) the EPS comes in at 37.56p.

Assuming a Forward PER of 28x the share price would then be 1051p for FY2024 at no growth. P/S would revert to 2022's 4x.

Assuming G&A did not increase proportionately, say only by 50% (from £55.291m to £64.827m instead of £74.363m), then Pro-Forma FY2024 no growth EPS would come in at 47p.

[mutley655] 16/4/2024 10:08

My stop loss triggered, sold at 680.47What are people's view on where oversold territory will be price wise?

[chester9] 16/4/2024 09:53

The sales are usually split out more clearly but if assume winches contributed 3.3m then growth in ongoing slowed in H2, but still good.Expenses up 53% when sales 51% is not good though.Sales fc on Stocko 162 looks about right that indicates 10% growth in lfl business.If costs not brought under control then forward PE stays over 20, not cheap hence sell off.Long term positive but cost growth needs to come down lower than sales growth. I should have sold last week. I will watch on Friday and decide from there.

[sogoesit] 16/4/2024 09:46

Slogsweep... I doubt it but given the share price reaction the company broker might likely issue something soon!

[johnrxx99] 16/4/2024 09:44

Support at 600p

[slogsweep] 16/4/2024 09:43

Sogoesit thanks I'm already registered on Invstormeet through TIG and so easy to add AT. Do you think there will be an analyst comment/upgrade before then?