Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[ianwwwhite] 26/10/2017 13:28

Bracke

Happy days! I think enjoy it while we can must be our watchword.

I seem to remember that the fable of the golden goose ends badly, with Xmas coming up, let's hope AHT doesn't end up roasted!

[bracke] 26/10/2017 11:43

You must be getting sick of all those eggs!

[ianwwwhite] 26/10/2017 11:19

Good morning bracke

Seems to be a bit of a tussle going on at present, but I expect today's outcome will be dictated by what happens to the DOW.

Nevertheless, AHT, the golden goose that keeps on laying has done us proud in recent months! :-)

[bracke] 26/10/2017 10:52

Good day ian

The share price hasn't dropped all the way back to 1920.......yet. Support is currently at 1926. Double the daily average volume yesterday.

[ianwwwhite] 25/10/2017 18:35

bracke

Many thanks for sharing your views.

I note URI has dropped back today, it seems to be on a roller coaster ride at the moment. It would not surprise me to see AHT retrace as you say, particularly as the pound has strengthened.

1926p? Can't grumble!

[bracke] 25/10/2017 18:10

All time intraday high 1961 and closing high 1926.

DOW has taken a tumble today. Unless it pulls back up later AHT may find 1920 does not support.

[bracke] 25/10/2017 14:43

ian

Don't discount a retrace to 1920 just yet.

2000 definitely not in jest. I said by Christmas but at the current rate of increase it could easily be well before. It's only 40 points short as I type.

[ianwwwhite] 25/10/2017 14:04

Good afternoon bracke,

Don't give up on the TA. It takes time and some effort.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I've added it to my bucket list!

In the meantime, AHT seems to be on viagra today, do you have an outlook for a new resistance level? At 1950ish, it seems to have left 1920 behind, and still seems to be in an ascending channel. I notice you mentioned 2000p - in jest?
.

[bracke] 25/10/2017 10:35

Good day ian

"Ok you win, a common gap it was, I'll stick to reading tea-leaves in future :-)"
===================================================================================

Don't give up on the TA. It takes time and some effort.

Lately there appears to be a pattern with the share price The DOW rises but AHT does not rise with it but waits until the next day.

Today there appears to be a concerted effort to break above 1920. I expect to see it retrace to test 1920.

2000 by Christmas. For long term holders the world is not their oyster AHT is their lobster thermidor and Chablis.

[fenners66] 25/10/2017 09:47

And Hurricanes to clean up after as well.

[discodave4] 25/10/2017 09:15

Morning,Caterpillar Q3 beat forecasts with positive outlook - bodes well for AHT:hTTps://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/24/caterpillar-shares-soar-more-than-7-percent-on-strong-earnings-beat.html"The construction industry in North America is turning around after years of slow demand, fueled by a steady housing recovery, an improving labor market and higher spending by oil and gas companies.Sales in North America, Caterpillar's biggest market, jumped 27 percent in the third quarter ended Sept 30. Construction revenue from the region rose 31 percent to $2.17 billion and revenue from resources, including mining, rose 28 percent to $581 million."DD

[2flatpack] 25/10/2017 09:05

Morning all.
Opened small short.
cheers

[ianwwwhite] 25/10/2017 08:36

Healthy US earnings season

The outlook for the world economy is looking rosier thanks to strong earnings statements from some of the biggest US industrial companies such as Caterpillar, United Technologies and General Motors. Companies cited growing China demand as an important factor but reports from North American and European markets were generally positive, too. (FT)

Most encouraging!

[ianwwwhite] 24/10/2017 18:26

Hi bracke

Looks like AHT has made a rapid recovery from exhaustion, and is now looking more perky, although I note that it has still to breach the 1920 resistance level that you mentioned.

Ok you win, a common gap it was, I'll stick to reading tea-leaves in future :-)
.

[bracke] 24/10/2017 12:23

Second attempt this morning at 1920 resisted.

Failure to break through is likely to result in a 50/60 point retrace.

[discodave4] 24/10/2017 08:40

Morning Ian.My SB is at breakeven at the moment. Will persist and see how it goes.ThanksDD

[ianwwwhite] 24/10/2017 08:31

URI closed 2% down, and the FTSE and FT250 are red this morning..... and AHT are up 29p. It's a funny world!

[ianwwwhite] 24/10/2017 08:26

DD

Thanks for sharing your approach, most interesting. I assume that overall, the profits are outweighing the losses?

[discodave4] 23/10/2017 21:28

Thanks Ian.Can't say that my spread betting strategy has exactly gone to plan - opened positions (long) in shares I would buy and hold with a view to closing once in profit to the equivalent of 20% of what a non-leveraged holding would actually be, unfortunately half have gone against me and been stopped out! (either setting my stops too tight or picking dogs! Lol).Will keep trying........he who dares wins...and all that!.All the best.DD

[ianwwwhite] 23/10/2017 20:22

Good evening DD

Spread betting? Whatever floats your boat, and it sounds like you have developed a well considered approach.

I have no problem with the use of shorting or using other derivatives ... it's just not appropriate for me. I wish you luck!

[fenners66] 23/10/2017 19:18

I think that shorting is fine. It is no different to selling shares because you have made a profit and think the share has reached the top. When you sell a share at the top of its run , just as it turns around and drops 15% do you shed a tear for the poor fellow (mug) who bought them off you?

Do you secretly (or perhaps not so secretly) gloat that you got that one right and then wonder if it falls back some more will it be a buying opportunity?

No one cares that, that fall may have triggered the stop loss of the fellow that bought them off you.

The biggest case of shorting I have seen is Carillion where over 20% of the shares were shorted - mostly from over £3 whilst the company continued to preach in their glossy huge accounts book that everything was fine.

Shorters took very large positions on the basis that they knew more about the business than the directors did.
Not that they knew more about the share price prospects or that they could influence them - but that the business was a basket case despite the directors reassurances.

The FD reported everything was fine at the AGM and 2 months later announced £850m of write offs !

Suddenly the share price then collapsed and the shorters were in serious money - but they took the same ( arguably greater risks) than the longs and it paid off. Sure the share price had a gentle decline during the last 2 years - but its was the announcement that the truth was out and 5 years profits were mistaken that killed the share price and the holders.

Since that incident I have added short tracker to my browser favourites and I will now check the short position prior to any buys. I had been wondering about buying some CLLN I am seriously glad I didn't.

[discodave4] 23/10/2017 19:08

Just to put my two pennies worth!Personally have no problem with shorting.bracke - ...."so the system self regulates"Not too certain about that, my AHT shares are in a nominee account so they could (from what I've read) be loaned out for shorting without me even knowing it, let alone authorising it.Ian - I do use spread bets to hold a share for short term trades but only those with no yield - why not use someone else's capital to realise an investment that would otherwise require a lot more of my own money (always use stops!).DD

[bracke] 23/10/2017 16:27

kilgallp


"I don't know how long you've been involved with Ashtead?"
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Too long. Soon after the financial irregularity.



"Shorters are banking on companies collapsing"
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No they are not. They are trading on the basis that the share price will drop.

If a share price drops too far buyers will come in and take it back up.

Shorters are rather like predators they 'take out' the weak. Remember the banks. They were shorted because they had got themselves into a mess. When heavy shorting takes place odds on it's deserved.

Remember naked shorting is not permitted, the number of shares shorted have to be borrowed from a holder so the system self regulates.

Shorting often concentrates the minds of Directors who have rested on their laurels for too long into action.

[kilgallp] 23/10/2017 16:12

Bracke, 'On that basis a 'bad' share would never drop.', I can't agree with that. Share prices drop without any shorting being required. I don't know how long you've been involved with Ashtead? I had shares in them years ago, when they announced some financial irregularities, the price plummeted, I lost a lot of money. I said at the time I'd never invest in them again! Fortunately, I went back on that, and I'm glad to say, I have recovered my loss and more.

I invest in companies which I think have a good story and I hope will go from strength to strength. I see that as a positive move.

Shorters are banking on companies collapsing, and their action helps drag the company down. To my mind it's a negative action.

[bracke] 23/10/2017 15:26

Good day fenners

Although I agree with your 'percent' comment, the rewards for a long derivative trade are surely better than holding the shares.