Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[ianwwwhite] 20/7/2017 12:59

fenners: lol!

2flatpack: congratulations on your earlier successful spreadbet, a nice little earner!

[fenners66] 20/7/2017 12:59

I need to get up earlier...

[fenners66] 20/7/2017 12:58

ian - doh thanks I missed that one

[2flatpack] 20/7/2017 12:58

afternoon fenners
It's a reference to bracke's obsession with gap filling which has rubbed off on me.
cheers

[fenners66] 20/7/2017 12:57

Claim too many of those and you'll be needing "a dental trip "....

[ianwwwhite] 20/7/2017 12:55

2flatpack

Is the reference to a 'dentist trip' relating to 'gap filling'?

If so I claim my prize of the usual mars bar!

[fenners66] 20/7/2017 12:52

Bracke "Don't profit warnings come in threes?"

Yes that's what I was trying to understand.
We know it happens so often in all different types of business so to delay bad news must be a part of the human condition rather than just the financial functions of any given company....

2 flat "hoping for a dental trip, so I can jump in again"

is the dental trip - actually a trip to the dentists which is going to cost so you need to jump in again to make a profit to pay for it

or is it, like it reads, another stock market term a la "head and shoulders" that I have not heard of ?

[ianwwwhite] 20/7/2017 12:31

Question is, is bracke riding the curl with his long?

.

[ianwwwhite] 20/7/2017 12:29

Nice to see AHT in the ascendancy again.

I am reading "Great URI figs out after the close last night with increased guidance for the year. Stock up about 4% in the after market. "

Might explain the rise today?

EDIT: URI Results:

.

[discodave4] 20/7/2017 12:23

Still cannot find any financials for CRS.However, based on a couple of recent UK acquisitions (Liontrack Hire and Mather & Stuart), their purchase price came to twice their respective annual revenues. So whilst a bit of a finger in the air, the revenue for CRS could be circa £89m pa.Guess once the deal has been finalised over the next few weeks that some additional information will then be released.Ashtead have targeted 5% of the Canadian rental market, the forecasts were for $4.9 billion turnover for 2016 rising to $5.8 billion by 2020 (see link below). If they achieve that target then that's an additional £150m revenue pa (+5% of last FY).Acquisitions were £437m last FY, wonder how much this FY?.hTTps://www.constructionequipment.com/equipment-rental-revenue-set-top-57-billion-2020DD

[2flatpack] 20/7/2017 12:16

May be on the back of URI Q2 results.
cheers

[discodave4] 20/7/2017 11:24

Thanks bracke, as usual.apf is, I suspect, a paid ramper.This rise here can't be just on the back of the CRS £179m acquisition, can it?.DD

[bracke] 20/7/2017 10:37

Last week I updated my AHT chart with a new Pitchfork. To-day the share price has gapped straight to the ML. There was an 80% probability that it would do so but I didn't expect to reach that level until the end of the month.

Continuance above the ML is 50/50.

The highest closing high was 1751 which is the logical next target.

[fenners66] 20/7/2017 08:44

Morning Disco

Well done on your profit 2 flat

[discodave4] 20/7/2017 08:34

Morning fenners.Been trying to find some numbers for CRS but no joy.DD

[2flatpack] 20/7/2017 08:21

Killing complete !
sold at 1710.
Yahoo.
Cheers

[fenners66] 20/7/2017 08:18

Looking at CRS their locations are all in Ontario (just over the border from the US) so we will not be seeing Sunbelt kit on Gold Rush I suspect....

Anyone found out what their turnover , profit and BS are like?

[fenners66] 20/7/2017 08:11

GAP UP !

oh dear that's a shame we know what Bracke is going to tell us about that.

I was wondering about the recent share price moves and that announcement of Canadian business purchase.

You may remember that before the purchase of Nations Rent the share price was flying , then dropped like a stone then the Rights Issue to buy NR was announced.

Recently we have been falling again after on track results etc and then pre/post the announcement of this (large) bolt on we shoot up.

Is this just reaction to the news ? Or did the institutions get wind of a large acquisition and assume a rights issue was in the wind?

RI does not materialise and the market goes back up to await the next opportunity?

[discodave4] 19/7/2017 23:15

Nice one fenners.......CLLN, the writing was on the wall for long enough!.DD

[fenners66] 19/7/2017 18:38

That charts looking better

[fenners66] 19/7/2017 18:37

Au contraire - if they are spending this much then there is not as much fire power for a larger target - bolt ons , bolt ons.....
Been having some fun looking at Carillion apart from the low brow bickering there is a lesson to be learned from the short interest held by the institutions for the last few years there.

Made me think about the psychology of profit warnings and I had this take on it :-

Remember CLLN stated that a review of cashflow had prompted the discovery and write off of £850m.

So my take on what that actually meant ...

Senior management to operating arm - "hows things going?"

operating arm " Ok ,bit slow but we have billed "
3 months go by

Senior management to operating arm - "hows things going?"
operating arm " Ok ,bit slow but we are struggling with collecting billed work"

2 months goes by
Senior management to operating arm - "Where is the cash?"
operating arm " Ah well there might be a small issue on one of the contracts , nothing to worry about"

1 month goes by
Senior management to operating arm - "Where is the cash, do we need to send someone to collect it?"
operating arm " Well that small issue may be a bit bigger than we thought"


1 month goes by
Senior management to operating arm - "We'll have to review the situation, we'll get some outside auditors in because they don't know the details and will never get the wool pulled over their eyes"
operating arm " Ok well there is no need to panic I'm sure....."


1 month goes by
Senior management to operating arm - "We're screwed - aren't YOU ! "
operating arm " Ok we've identified a small provision required - not much cash cost to worry about though....."

Senior management to the markets £850m should cover it
Senior management to operating arm - " is that really everything? "

And so it goes on - human nature to delay the bad news in the hope that
a, it gets better
b, someone else declares their bad news first, it may be worse than yours and then you don't look as bad
c, that may mean senior management gets others to sack first and has not got time to sack you
d, just delaying the inevitable in order to get some interviews in first....

Howzat?