Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[bracke] 10/12/2015 14:31

Good day ian

It is understandable that AHT has paused following yesterdays rise. In the meantime the market awaits the FED rate decision......and Santa.

[ianwwwhite] 10/12/2015 14:16

bracke

Thanks as always for your latest analysis, and the comparison with the Sept 15 results is interesting.

It looks like AHT has paused for breathe after yesterday's exertions, and is a little lacking in direction at the moment.

[ianwwwhite] 10/12/2015 14:11

2flatpack

Thanks for your comments, although to call my approach 'a system' is stretching it a bit!

I did try to persuade bracke that 'gut feel' was a legitimate system, alongside the techies and fundies approach, but he wasn't buying it!

Good luck with your next investment!

[bracke] 10/12/2015 13:08

Will yesterday's gap be filled in the near term?

Maybe worth looking at the last results day on 02 September.

In late May the share price had fallen from its high at 1232 to 837 by 24 August. It then rose to approx 930 just before results day. On results day it gapped and closed at 990. There then followed a couple of weeks of gradual rising price before a series of down days to fill the gap. The share price then continued on its upward journey.

Past price action may not guarantee future price action but it perhaps provides an indication.

There is also the possibility that having gapped above the Daily SMA 200 (currently at 1055) it will want to retest it

Indication of the gap type is likely to become evident during next week.

[2flatpack] 10/12/2015 13:07

Ian
Congratulations to you on your trading expertise .
My system is in redesign mode .
It used to be sell and maybe short on results day, then buy back in between the 150 to 200 day SMA but the drop to the 400 day SMA plus the shorting has me spooked .
Cheers

[ianwwwhite] 10/12/2015 12:23

2flatpack

Congratulations on a successful investment and exit!

As it's AHT, we will probably see a retrace at some point, but not sure that you will see 1000 for a while.

If we do and the business model remains unimpaired, it would certainly be a superb buying opportunity (IMHO)

[2flatpack] 10/12/2015 12:06

Great results
Well done and thanks to Geoff and everyone at Ashtead,
I,m sold up and waiting to see if the shorter can overcome results euphoria and drive the share price down.
The last one came in around 1000 .
Cheers

[ianwwwhite] 10/12/2015 10:35

sorry - duplicated post!

[ianwwwhite] 10/12/2015 10:13

Looks like my small sale yesterday at 1120 has unsettled the market (lol!), and 1120 has become a point of resistance for the time being.

However in a pretty choppy market, AHT has done well to hang on to yesterdays gains, and future prospects are most encouraging.

[bracke] 09/12/2015 11:29

That filled a few gaps! Only one left to the upside at 1144.

I have on my chart a Median Line I drew in the middle of last month. I didn't mention it because it projected an share price which I considered was too far away within the timeframe.....I should have known better. This is AHT.

What next?

Normally it would be expected that the share price would go on to test the previous high and that may happen but we trade/invest in interesting times. Apart from the possibility of a US interest rate rise the main likely 'spanner in the works' is China. I suspect it is a question of whether AHT can retest the high before China problems occur.

In the meantime a retrace is likely as a result of profit taking and of course todays rise has created a chunky gap!

[dealer1972] 09/12/2015 11:25

looks like its left another gap ;)

[ianwwwhite] 09/12/2015 10:48

Well, I just took a profit on a few shares I bought at 938.9 on 27th July on a whim, (much to bracke's disgust!) and sold today at 1120p.

However my main holding remains intact, and I agree with godwin2, this share is worth holding on to. (IMHO)

I am expecting a modest retrace once the froth has subsided, but would be happy to be proved wrong!

[godwin2] 09/12/2015 08:50

You would have to be very short-sighted to sell AHT and you would be better off going to Specsavers!

[discodave4] 09/12/2015 07:59

Excellent results as usual.DD

[broadwood] 09/12/2015 07:55

Ashtead Group's underlying pre-tax profits rose by 21% to £342.7m in the six months to the end of October. Underlying EBITDA rose 22% to £591.8m and earnings per share rose by 25% to 45.1p. On a statutory basis, pre-tax profits were 20% up at £331.9m and earnings per share 24% higher at 43.7p. Revenues of £1,267.5m were up 21%. Chief executive, Geoff Drabble said: "I am pleased to be able to report another strong quarter resulting in underlying pre-tax profits of £343m for the six months, up 21% at constant exchange rates on the prior year. Even with significant levels of investment, we continue to grow responsibly, generating strong returns and maintaining leverage within our stated objectives. Group RoI was a healthy 19% and our leverage reduced to 1.9 times EBITDA. "We continue to execute on our strategy to diversify the markets we serve, both in terms of geography and sector. Sunbelt's 22% rental only revenue growth demonstrates clearly the benefits of this strategy and the overall health of our broader markets. We invested £696m in capital expenditure and opened 38 new locations in the US. Given the profitable growth opportunities evident in our markets, we are increasing our full year guidance for capital expenditure to c. £1.1bn. "With both divisions performing well, strong end markets and our strategy clearly working, we now anticipate a full year result ahead of our previous expectations and the Board looks forward to the medium term with - confidence

[gersemi] 09/12/2015 07:06

Ahead of expectations

[broadwood] 09/12/2015 07:05

Now that'll do very nicely.



With both divisions performing well, strong end markets and our strategy clearly working, we now anticipate a full year result ahead of our previous expectations and the Board looks forward to the medium term with confidence

[ianwwwhite] 09/12/2015 07:05

Half Year Results

Highlights
Group rental revenue up 18%1
First half pre-tax profit2 of £343m, up 21% at constant exchange rates
£696m of capital invested in the business (2014: £588m) and full year guidance increased
Group RoI of 19% (2014: 19%)
Net debt to EBITDA leverage1 of 1.9 times (2014: 2.0 times)
Interim dividend raised 33% to 4.0p per share (2014: 3.0p)

.........
Very bullish forward looking statement as well ... See Broadwood's post below

What more could you ask?

[james97] 08/12/2015 21:49

Oil prices falling again today and URI plunging in response. AHT going with that trend today but hopefully actual results can change that direction. Good luck all.

[discodave4] 08/12/2015 18:58

Good Luck all for tomorrow.DD

[bracke] 07/12/2015 11:03

ian

AHT have in the past, when their share price was doing well, moved into acquisitive mode to the detriment of the share price

S/holders would probably hope that if further acquisitions are to be made they will be in the US.........but you never know!

[ianwwwhite] 07/12/2015 10:46

Good morning bracke,

Too right!

Let's hope our Board don't get tempted to pick up any of the pieces, both companies are basket cases (IMHO)!

[bracke] 07/12/2015 10:37

Good day Ian

Do I detect an element of Schadenfreude in your post?

[ianwwwhite] 07/12/2015 07:47

Two of the UK's biggest tool and equipment hire groups have abandoned secret talks about a £300m merger after a boardroom bust-up prompted two directors to quit.

Sky News has learnt that HSS and Speedy Hire had been in preliminary discussions about a tie-up until last month.

See HSS Hire Group thread, post 328, 4th Dec


Nothing like a bit of boardroom disharmony to distract our UK rivals!